Knowledge that Transforms

We analyze a dynamic game between consumers and the sole seller of a durable good. Unlike previous analyses, we assume that there exists a finite collection of buyers rather than a continuum. None of the main conclusions of the literature on durable-goods monopoly survives this change in assumption. Coase's conjecture that a durable-goods monopolist cannot earn supracompetitive profits in the continuous-time limit, Bulow's proposition that renting a durable is always more profitable than selling it, and Stokey's proposition that precommitting to a time path of prices is always optimal are all false when the set of buyers is finite. Thus the assumption of a continuum of consumers--so innocuous and useful a simplification in other contexts--has proved misleading in the context of durable-goods monopoly.

We examine the rational expectations equilibrium paths of the model of search and barter in Diamond's "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium." For some initial positions, there are two equilibrium paths converging to different steady states, with the high-activity path Pareto-dominating the low-activity path. With some parameters there is also a continuum of equilibrium paths converging to another steady state. Moreover, there can be cycles that are equilibrium paths, even though the environment is stationary.

In the supply of public goods, far less free-riding actually occurs than traditional theory predicts. As one explanation, the social composition function(SCF), which aggregates individual contributions into an available social total,may not always take the standard summation form. Theoretical considerations indicate that free-riding should be least for an SCF of the weakest-link type but greatest for the best-shot type. Using a sequential protocol, our experiments strongly confirmed theoretical anticipations under all three types of SCF. Even under the more onerous sealed-bid (simultaneous play) protocol, the experimental subjects were able to make some partial progress toward the theoretical ideal.

Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and the timing of sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the U.S. economy, and its characteristics closely mirror those of the conventional business cycle.

A concept of demographic separability is proposed that formalizes the notion that there are groups of goods (adult goods) that have little or no relationship to specific classes of household demographics (the numbers or ages of children).That there exist adult goods demographically separable from children is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the validity of Rothbarth's method for measuring child costs. We propose two different methods for testing demographic separability and present results from a 1981 survey of Spain. The econometric evidence is in fair agreement with the theoretical presuppositions.

Data from more than 1,000 inspections to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission form the basis for an investigation into the nature of safety regulation at U.S.commercial nuclear reactors. Poisson (and binary choice) models of the rate of occurrence of violations during each inspection period are specified and are extended to control for nondetection and for the possibility that violations persist from one inspection to the next. These models are used to study the factors associated with noncompliance, relative rankings of plants according to propensity to violate, the variation in detection rates among NRC inspectors, and the relationship between undetected violations and abnormal occurrences.

Though it is always mentioned first among the list of obvious manias, no serious effort has ever been expended to investigate the market fundamentals that might have driven the tulip speculation. This paper compiles time series on individual tulip prices and examines market fundamentals potentially driving prices. Most of the "tulipmania" was not obvious madness. High but rapidly depreciating prices for rare bulbs is a typical pattern in the flower bulb industry. Only the last month of the speculation, during which common bulb prices increased rapidly and crashed, remains as a potential bubble.

This paper presents an analytical model of labor specialization. Workers make human capital investment decisions on the depth and the breadth of their skill. Given that firms have diverse job requirements and increasing returns to scale, workers invest more for the depth of their human capital and less for the breadth as the size of the labor market increases. Also, the larger the size of the market, the more varieties of job requirements are used so that the average match between a worker and a firm improves.

We modify R. A. Fisher's model by incorporating measures of the environment that may be correlated across kin groups. We estimate a model of schooling attainment using data on eight kin groups and find a large contribution of genetic endowments to the variance in schooling though certain aspects of the environment matter.

This paper empirically explores the dynamic interactions among research and development, capital investment, and the stock market performance of 191 firms in science-based industries during the period 1973-81. Using a framework based on dynamic factor analysis, we test asymmetric specifications of the dynamics between R & D and investment. The data indicate that R & D Granger-causes investment but that investment does not Granger-cause R & D. We discuss interpretations of this causal ordering, characterize the stylized facts of the movements over time of R & D and investment, and measure the stock market valuation of these movements.