We study standard mutual fund performance measures, using simulated funds whose characteristics mimic actual funds. We find that performance measures used in previous mutual fund research have little ability to detect economically large magnitudes (e.g., three percent per year) of abnormal fund performance, particularly if a fund's style characteristics differ from those of the value‐weighted market portfolio. Power can be substantially improved, however, using event‐study procedures that analyze a fund's stock trades. These procedures are feasible using time‐series data sets on mutual fund portfolio holdings.

a country that chooses not to "perma-nently " fix its exchange rate through a currency board, or a common currency, or some kind of dollarization, the only alternative monetary pol-icy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of (i) a flexible exchange rate, (ii) an inflation target, and (iii) a monetary policy rule. ' While not often put into this three-part format, the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is, in my view, the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research: (i) research on fixed-exchange-rates regimes, including the in-

We develop a theory of the relation between biases in financial reporting and managers' incentives to issue timely voluntary disclosures. We find that firms with relatively more conservative accounting are less likely to make timely voluntary disclosures than firms with less conservative accounting. Therefore, price is more timely in reflecting the news of firms with less conservative accounting. Prior research has assumed that the timeliness by which news is impounded in price is uncorrelated with the nature of accounting earnings and has ascribed a concave earnings-return relation to the accounting system reporting bad news on a more timely basis than good news. In our theory, a concave relation is not necessarily attributable to a difference in the way the accounting system reports good vs. bad news. Rather, our prediction stems from how biases in mandatory financial reports determine which firms optimally choose to make voluntary preemptive disclosures and which do not. Hence, our theory provides an alternative explanation for the empirical findings and cautions against interpreting them as evidence that accounting is conservative. Finally, we identify means of empirically distinguishing between the alternative explanations.

We present a new approach for positioning, pricing, and hedging in incomplete markets that bridges standard arbitrage pricing and expected utility maximization. Our approach for determining whether an investor should undertake a particular position involves specifying a set of probability measures and associated floors which expected payoffs must exceed in order for the investor to consider the hedged and financed investment to be acceptable. By assuming that the liquid assets are priced so that each portfolio of assets has negative expected return under at least one measure, we derive a counterpart to the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing. We also derive a counterpart to the second fundamental theorem, which leads to unique derivative security pricing and hedging even though markets are incomplete. For products that are not spanned by the liquid assets of the economy, we show how our methodology provides more realistic bid–ask spreads.

We estimate the impact of employer-provided retiree health insurance (EPRHI) on the labor force transitions of men aged 51 to 62.Data from the Health and Retirement Survey provide detailed and accurate measures of retiree health insurance. Availability of EPRHI increases the rate of exit from employment by two percentage points per year if the individual shares the cost of the insurance with the firm, and by six percentage points if the firm pays the entire cost. The impact of cost-shared EPRHI on the annual rate of labor force exit increases with age, reaching 7.5 percentage points by age 61.

Economics instruction in U.S. high schools is basically delivered in two ways. About half of high-school students take a required or elective course in economics, according to transcript data. The great majority of these students (about 95 percent) enroll in a regular course that focuses on basic economic concepts with applications. The remaining small percentage of students take a college-oriented course that is often called “honors” or Advanced Placement (AP) economics. Economics instruction for the other half of high-school students, if it is provided at all, is typically delivered in the context of other courses in the high-school curriculum in what is sometimes called the “infusion” or “integrative” approach. These courses would most likely be required courses taught in the social studies, such as U.S. history or American government, or in elective courses taught in business education. This study investigates what high-school students know about basic economics given the different types of economics instruction. The primary focus is on the achievement of students who complete a basic course in high school economics. These results are important because they supply insights into what high school students who have received direct instruction in economics know about the subject. For comparison purposes, the achievement of students who have not taken a formal course in economics will be investigated to identify what they know about economics. The comparison of those students with and without instruction in a separate course in economics gives the best estimate of the importance of direct instruction in economics to the economic understanding of most high-school graduates. In addition, similar comparisons between those students with and without direct instruction in economics will be made for two groups of higher-ability students: those who enroll in honors or AP courses in economics and those who enroll in such courses for other social-studies subjects.

Understanding, Speaking, Reading, Writing, and Earnings in the Immigrant Labor Market by Anthony P. Carnevale, Richard A. Fry and B. Lindsay Lowell. Published in volume 91, issue 2, pages 159-163 of American Economic Review, May 2001

The fiscal theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses evolve independently of government debt, the equilibrium price level “jumps” to assure fiscal solvency. In this non-Ricardian regime, fiscal policy—not monetary policy—provides the nominal anchor. Alternatively, in a Ricardian regime, primary surpluses are expected to respond to debt in a way that assures fiscal solvency, and the price level is determined in conventional ways. This paper argues that Ricardian regimes are as theoretically plausible as non-Ricardian regimes, and provide a more plausible interpretation of certain aspects of the postwar U.S. data than do non-Ricardian regimes.

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions. Sufficient conditions for weak consistency are given and a limit distribution theory is provided. The rates of convergence depend on the properties of the nonlinear regression function, and are shown to be as slow as n 1/4 for integrable functions, and to be generally polynomial in n 1/2 for homogeneous functions. For regressions with integrable functions, the limiting distribution theory is mixed normal with mixing variates that depend on the sojourn time of the limiting Brownian motion of the integrated process.