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International Transmission and Real Business Cycle Models
The Development of Industrial Research in U.S. Manufacturing
The impact of sovereign risk on the market valuation of U.S. bank equities
This paper tests whether the August 1982 advent of the Latin American debt crisis affected the implicit value of commercial bank loans to major Latin American debtors and hence, the value of equities. In contrast to previous studies, the analysis provides an explicit derivation of the theoretical impact of such an effect, uses a more efficient pooled cross-sectional, time-series estimating technique, addresses the question of whether (ex ante) required returns on bank equities also were affected, and compares the estimates to the behavior of the direct market for Latin American bonds. The results imply that the crisis did cause significant debt discounting as well as an increase in required returns. However, unlike the bond market, most of this equity effect was delayed 6–9 months.
Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for residual based tests for cointegration. Attention is given to the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Z(subscript alpha) and Z(subscript t) unit root tests. Two new tests are also introduced. The tests are shown to be asymptotically similar, and simple representations of their limiting distributions are given and asymptotic critical values are tabulated. The ADF and Z(subscript t) tests are asymptotically equivalent. Power properties of the test are also studied. The tests are consistent if suitably constructed, but the ADF and Z(subscript t) tests have slower rates of divergence under cointegration than the other tests. Copyright 1990 by The Econometric Society.
Preface
Discrimination in Consumer Lending
This paper tests for the existence of discrimination in consumer lending by finance companies in Texas before the passage of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The data used permit conclusions about discrimination in the market, not just in the behavior of a small number of creditors. The tests suggest that lenders did not discriminate against factors now protected by ECOA. These companies may have discriminated against single borrowers of both sexes and against widows but not married women or divorced borrowers. The results support the view that consumer credit markets as a whole were not characterized by widespread systematic discrimination. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.
Securityholder Taxes and Corporate Restructurings
Previous studies have found that positive abnormal stock returns are associated with corporate spin-offs and divestitures. Using a simplified model of the process of investor tax trading, we show that an improvement in the value of the tax-timing option component of securities prices is a likely contributing factor to those abnormal returns. The analysis indicates that the same phenomenon also may be part of the explanation for the generally higher returns observed for spin-offs than for divestitures, both when leverage is and is not present in the restructuring transactions.
The October 1987 stock market crash
Determinants of Actuarial Cost Method Changes for Pension Accounting and Funding.
Identifies and evaluates potential determinants of the switch from cost-allocation actuarial method to a benefit-allocation actuarial cost method. Effects of the switch; Causes of the decrease in pension expense and funding; Reasons for the switch in actuarial cost methods.