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Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations

Review of Financial Studies 2008 21(6), 2857-2888
This article examines how financial constraints and product market exposures determine the response of multinational and local firms to sharp depreciations. U.S. multinational affiliates increase sales, assets, and investment significantly more than local firms during, and subsequent to, depreciations. Differing product market exposures do not explain these differences in performance. Instead, a differential ability to circumvent financial constraints is a significant determinant of the observed differences in investment responses. Multinational affiliates also access parent equity when local firms are most constrained. These results indicate another role for foreign direct investment in emerging markets--multinational affiliates expand economic activity during currency crises when local firms are most constrained. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations

Review of Financial Studies 2008 21(6), 2857-2888
[This article examines how financial constraints and product market exposures determine the response of multinational and local firms to sharp depreciations. U.S. multinational affiliates increase sales, assets, and investment significantly more than local firms during, and subsequent to, depreciations. Differing product market exposures do not explain these differences in performance. Instead, a differential ability to circumvent financial constraints is a significant determinant of the observed differences in investment responses. Multinational affiliates also access parent equity when local firms are most constrained. These results indicate another role for foreign direct investment in emerging markets - multinational affiliates expand economic activity during currency crises when local firms are most constrained.F23,F31,G15,G31,G32]

An examination of Value Line’s long-term projections

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(5), 820-833
Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.

Debt and managerial rents in a real-options model of the firm

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 89(2), 209-231
We present a theory of capital investment and debt and equity financing in a real-options model of a public corporation. The theory assumes that managers maximize the present value of their future compensation (managerial rents), subject to constraints imposed by outside shareholders’ property rights to the firm's assets. Absent bankruptcy costs, managers follow an optimal debt policy that generates efficient investment and disinvestment. We show how bankruptcy costs can distort both investment and disinvestment. We also show how managers’ personal wealth constraints can lead to delayed investment and increased reliance on debt financing. Changes in cash flow can cause changes in investment by tightening or loosening the wealth constraints. Firms with weaker investor protection adopt higher debt levels.

US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(9), 1916-1927
This paper examines the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market of Shanghai versus prices observed offshore in New York and Hong Kong. The discounts attached to Chinese securities, whether trading as ADRs on the NYSE or as H-shares on the Hong Kong market, appear to have been significantly influenced by changes in both exchange rate expectations and investor sentiment during 1998–2006. Expected exchange rate changes alone account for approximately 40% of the total variation in each case. This is combined with large cross-sectional variation, however, reflecting additional significant market-wide and company-specific sentiment effects.

Client Characteristics and the Negotiation Tactics of Auditors: Implications for Financial Reporting

Journal of Accounting Research 2008 46(5), 1183-1207
ABSTRACT Although the financial statements of an organization are considered a product of management, prior research suggests that a company's financial statements may be affected by the negotiation strategy employed by the auditor when resolving audit differences with management. However, little subsequent research discusses the potential strategies that auditors may employ during the negotiation process. Our study extends the literature by investigating, in a post–Sarbanes‐Oxley environment, whether auditors will employ a reciprocity‐based strategy for the resolution of audit differences and what client characteristics (client management's negotiating style and client retention risk) increase the extent to which it is utilized. Further, we explore the potential effect of a reciprocity‐based strategy on the quality of the financial statements. Such a strategy involves bringing inconsequential items to management and subsequently waiving these items in an effort to encourage management to be more cooperative in the posting of significant income‐decreasing adjustments. The results of experiment 1 indicate that client management's negotiating style and retention risk have an interactive effect on auditors' use of a reciprocity‐based strategy. Specifically, auditors are more likely to utilize a reciprocity‐based strategy when management's negotiating style is competitive and client retention risk is high. Experiment 2 findings suggest that the auditor's use of reciprocity during negotiation can actually result in more conservative financial statements by helping the auditor manage perceived client pressures to waive or reduce proposed adjustments.

Hedging index exchange traded funds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(2), 326-337 open access
This paper presents an empirical comparison of the out of sample hedging performance from naïve and minimum variance hedge ratios for the four largest US index exchange traded funds (ETFs). Efficient hedging is important to offset long and short positions on market maker’s accounts, particularly imbalances in net creation or redemption demands around the time of dividend payments. Our evaluation of out of sample hedging performance includes aversion to negative skewness and excess kurtosis. The results should be of interest to hedge funds employing tax arbitrage or leveraged long–short equity strategies as well as to ETF market makers.

Trading imbalances, predictable reversals, and cross-stock price pressure

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 88(2), 406-423
We test the implications of a multi-asset equilibrium model in which a finite number of risk-averse liquidity providers accommodate non-informational trading imbalances. These imbalances generate predictable reversals in stock returns. An imbalance in one stock also affects the prices of other stocks. The magnitude of the cross-stock price pressure depends on the correlations of the stocks’ underlying cash flows. The model implies that non-informational trading increases the volatility of stock returns. We confirm the model's implications using data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics With Many Firms

Econometrica 2008 76(6), 1375-1411
We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)-style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We define a new equilibrium concept that we call oblivious equilibrium, in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long-run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. The great advantage of oblivious equilibria is that they are much easier to compute than are Markov perfect equilibria. Moreover, we show that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain "light-tail" condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. This theorem justifies using oblivious equilibria to analyze Markov perfect industry dynamics in Ericson and Pakes (1995)-style models with many firms. Copyright 2008 The Econometric Society.