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Who, if anyone, reacts to accrual information?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2012 53(1-2), 205-224 open access
We show that the vast majority of investors ignore value-relevant accruals information when it is first released, but that investors who initiate trades of at least 5,000 shares tend to transact in the proper direction. These investors trade on accruals information only when the previously-announced earnings signal is non-negative. Unconditionally, those investors initiating the smallest trades appear to respond to accruals in the wrong direction, but further investigation suggests this behavior is explained by their attraction to attention-grabbing stocks. Finally, we find that those who trade on accruals information have insufficient market power to mitigate the accruals anomaly.

Autoregressive Modeling of Earnings‐Investment Causality

Journal of Finance 1987 42(1), 11-28
The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the relationships between corporate earnings and investment. In particular, the study investigates whether knowledge of past investments improves the prediction of future earnings beyond predictions that are based on past earnings alone. Similarly, it investigates whether knowledge of past earnings improves the prediction of future investments beyond knowledge of past investments alone. This is the empirical definition of Granger causality. The empirical results show that the bivariate past series of earnings and investments is superior to the univariate series in predicting future investments but not in predicting future earnings.

Autoregressive Modeling of Earnings-Investment Causality

Journal of Finance 1987 42(1), 11
The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the relationships between corporate earnings and investment. In particular, the study investigates whether knowledge of past investments improves the prediction of future earnings beyond predictions that are based on past earnings alone. Similarly, it investigates whether knowledge of past earnings improves the prediction of future investments beyond knowledge of past investments alone. This is the empirical definition of Granger causality. The empirical results show that the bivariate past series of earnings and investments is superior to the univariate series in predicting future investments but not in predicting future earnings.

The Impact of Earnings on the Pricing of Credit Default Swaps

The Accounting Review 2009 84(5), 1363-1394 open access
This study evaluates the impact of earnings on credit risk in the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market using levels, changes, and event study analyses. We find that earnings (cash flows, accruals) of reference firms are negatively and significantly correlated with the level of CDS premia, consistent with earnings (cash flows, accruals) conveying information about default risk. Based on the changes analysis, a 1 percent increase in ROA decreases CDS rates significantly by about 5 percent. We also find that (1) CDS premia are more highly correlated with below-median earnings than with above-median earnings and (2) CDS premia are more highly correlated with earnings of low-rated firms than with earnings of high-rated firms. Evidence indicates further that short-window earnings surprises are negatively and significantly correlated with CDS premia changes in the three-day window surrounding the preliminary earnings announcement, although the impact is concentrated in the shorter maturities.

The Information Content of SEC Filings and Information Environment: A Variance Decomposition Analysis

The Accounting Review 2006 81(5), 1017-1043 open access
Using the Vuolteenaho (2002) variance decomposition methodology, this study assesses the relative value relevance of cash flow, accrual, and expected return news on SEC and preliminary earnings filing dates, as measured by their contribution to the volatility of unexpected returns. Cash flow news is found to be more valuerelevant than accrual news. Although expected return (risk) news is the least valuerelevant, it is significantly correlated with changes in betas and returns at the preliminary and SEC filing dates, indicating association with changes in firm risk and discount rates. This study also documents that these informational components contain less (more) value-relevant information at the SEC filing date for firms with a higher proportion of long-term (short-term) sophisticated investors after controlling for other dimensions of the information environment.