I investigate the factors that fostered rising retirement rates prior to social security and most private-sector pensions by estimating the income effect of the first major pension program in the United Sates, that covering Union Army veterans. The elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to Union Army pension income was 0.73. The findings suggest that secularly rising income explains a substantial part of increased retirement rates. Comparisons with elasticities of nonparticipation with respect to social security income suggest that the elasticity of labor force nonparticipation may have decreased with time, perhaps because of the increasing attractiveness of leisure.

Prior theoretical work on estimation risk generally has been restricted to single-period, returns-based models in which the investor must estimate the vector of expected returns but the covariance matrix is known. This paper extends the literature on parameter uncertainty in several ways. First, we analyze asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a model based on payoffs. Second, we explore the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric estimation risk on equilibrium asset prices when the covariance matrix for payoffs must also be estimated. Finally, we investigate the effects on equilibrium of asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a simple multiperiod model.

This paper investigates how banks alter the timing and magnitude of transactions and accruals to achieve primary capital, tax, and earnings goals. Recent research, including Moyer [1990], Scholes, Wilson, and Wolfson [1990], and Collins, Shackelford, and Wahlen [1995], provides evidence that banks execute transactions and manage accruals to achieve some or all of these objectives. A common feature of these studies is the assumption that when managers make a particular accrual or transaction decision, all other decisions are fixed. We relax this assumption and allow such decisions to be determined simultaneously.

The gains and losses to factors of production from trade are discussed primarily within the context of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem which focuses on factor rewards. But policy makers are more concerned about employment effects of trade. This paper focuses on the short-run effects of trade on the incidence of layoffs in U.S. manufacturing industries. A probit model with endogenous switching is employed to estimate the effects of trade shocks and explore the role of comparative advantage on layoffs. The evidence suggests that trade shocks play a minor role in the incidence of layoff spells. However, net importing industries tend to adjust their labor force through layoffs to a greater extent than net exporting industries. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U. S. monetary policy on exchange rates. We consider three measures of these shocks: orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate, orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the Romer and Romer index of monetary policy. In sharp contrast to the literature, we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates. Specifically, according to our results a contractionary shock to U. S. monetary policy leads to (i) persistent, significant appreciations in U. S. nominal and real exchange rates and (ii) significant, persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of U. S. interest rates.

This paper proposes a theory of supply shocks, or shifts in the short-run Phillips curve, based on relative-price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment. When price adjustment is costly, firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks, and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level. Therefore, aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative-price changes: inflation rises when the distribution is skewed to the right, and falls when the distribution is skewed to the left. We show that this theoretical result explains a large fraction of movements in postwar U. S. inflation. Moreover, our model suggests measures of supply shocks that perform better than traditional measures, such as the relative prices of food and energy.

We test whether the conversion price (ratio) is viewed by the stock market as a credible signal of the firm's future earnings prospects (Kim (1990)) and, subsequently, whether convertible debt serves as backdoor equity financing (Stein (1992)). Examining the conversion price in relation to current stock prices and a priori growth expectations produces an average expected time of less than 1.5 years for convertible bonds to be at-the-money. Thus, as Stein suggests, convertibles appear to be a method of drawing equity into a firm's capital structure. We also find that the size of the firm's announcement period abnormal returns is positively related to the expected time for the convertible to become at-the-money. Given these relationships, we conclude that convertible debt issue announcements, on average, send an equity-like signal to the market.

This paper evaluates the conjecture that excess stock returns that have been documented around the announcement of corporate spin-offs represent, at least in part, the re-creation of value destroyed at the time of an earlier acquisition. We evaluate this question with a sample of spin-offs that originated as earlier acquisitions. At the time of the original acquisition, on average, announcement period returns to the bidder and the combined bidder and target firm are negative and significant. Additionally, announcement period returns at the time of the spin-off are negatively and significantly correlated with acquisition announcement period returns.