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Managerial incentives, capital reallocation, and the business cycle

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(1), 177-199
We argue that when managers have private information about the productivity of assets under their control and receive private benefits, substantial bonuses are required to induce less productive managers to declare that capital should be reallocated. The need to provide incentives for managers to relinquish control links executive compensation to capital reallocation and managerial turnover over the business cycle, rendering them procyclical if expected managerial compensation increases when more managers are hired. Moreover, capital is less productively deployed in downturns because agency costs make reallocation more costly. Empirically, we find that both CEO turnover and executive compensation are remarkably procyclical.

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 89(1), 158-174
This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. Journal of Financial Economics 58, 397–415] in two directions: (1) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (2) more important, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.

Cues for Timing and Coordination: Latitude, Letterman, and Longitude

Journal of Labor Economics 2008 26(2), 223-246
Daylight, television schedules, and time zones can alter timing and induce temporal coordination of economic activities. With the American Time Use Survey for 2003–2004 and data from Australia for 1992, we show that television schedules and the locations of time zones affect the timing of market work and sleep, with differences in timing being generated partly by returns to coordination with other agents. The responsiveness to time zone differences is greatest among workers in industries in national markets. An exogenous shock resulting from an area’s nonadherence to daylight saving time leads its residents to alter work schedules to coordinate with people elsewhere.

Leverage and investment under a state-owned bank lending environment: Evidence from China

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(5), 642-653 open access
This study examines the relations between leverage and investment in China's listed firms, where corporate debt is principally provided by state-owned banks. We obtain three major findings. First, there is a negative relation between leverage and investment. Second, the negative relation between leverage and investment is weaker in firms with low growth opportunities and poor operating performance than in firms with high growth opportunities and good operating performance. Third, the negative relation between leverage and investment is weaker in firms with a higher level of state shareholding than in firms with a lower level of state shareholding. Overall, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the state-owned banks in China impose fewer restrictions on the capital expenditures of low growth and poorly performing firms and also firms with greater state ownership. This creates an overinvestment bias in these firms.

Errors in estimating share repurchases

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(4), 460-474
We examine the accuracy of various estimates of firms' repurchases of common stock used in earlier studies, and find high error rates in the most commonly used estimators. We also find that the procedure used to estimate open market share repurchases can significantly impact results. The Compustat-based measure, which is the most accurate, deviates from the actual number of shares repurchased by more than 30% in about 16% of the cases. We conclude that many studies should be revisited now that the SEC mandates disclosure of precise information about share repurchases in Forms 10-Q and 10-K.

Why is PIN priced?☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 91(2), 119-138
Recent empirical work suggests that a proxy for the probability of informed trading (PIN) is an important determinant of the cross-section of average returns. This paper examines whether PIN is priced because of information asymmetry or because of other liquidity effects that are unrelated to information asymmetry. Our starting point is a model that decomposes PIN into two components, one related to asymmetric information and one related to illiquidity. In a two-pass Fama-MacBeth [1973. Risk, return, and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy 81, 607–636] regression, we show that the PIN component related to asymmetric information is not priced, while the PIN component related to illiquidity is priced. We conclude, therefore, that liquidity effects unrelated to information asymmetry explain the relation between PIN and the cross-section of expected returns.

Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, and Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, or Prescription?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2008 43(2), 381-400 open access
We examine the effect of poison pill adoptions on firm value, controlling for the adopting firm's preexisting corporate governance structure. We find that only companies with the most democratic governance structures, defined as those with the fewest preexisting protective governance provisions, experience significantly positive abnormal stock returns and significantly positive abnormal revisions in five-year earnings growth rate forecasts. Moreover, regression results indicate that abnormal returns and forecast revisions are significantly related to governance structure and not to board composition or subsequent merger activity.

Who are the active investors?☆Evidence from venture capital

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 89(3), 488-512 open access
This paper examines the determinants and consequences of investor activism in venture capital. Using a hand-collected sample of European venture capital deals, it shows the importance of human capital. Venture capital firms with partners that have prior business experience are more active recruiting managers and directors, helping with fundraising, and interacting more frequently with their portfolio companies. Independent venture capital firms are also more active than ‘captive’ (bank-, corporate-, or government-owned) firms. After controlling for endogeneity, investor activism is shown to be positively related to the success of portfolio companies.

Boards: Does one size fit all☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(2), 329-356
This paper reexamines the relation between firm value and board structure. We find that complex firms, which have greater advising requirements than simple firms, have larger boards with more outside directors. The relation between Tobin's Q and board size is U-shaped, which, at face value, suggests that either very small or very large boards are optimal. This relation, however, arises from differences between complex and simple firms. Tobin's Q increases (decreases) in board size for complex (simple) firms, and this relation is driven by the number of outside directors. We find some evidence that R&D-intensive firms, for which the firm-specific knowledge of insiders is relatively important, have a higher fraction of insiders on the board and that, for these firms, Q increases with the fraction of insiders on the board. Our findings challenge the notion that restrictions on board size and management representation on the board necessarily enhance firm value.