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Private lenders’ demand for audit

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2017 64(1), 78-97 open access
We study clauses in private lending agreements requiring auditors to assure lenders of borrowers’ compliance with financial covenants. Auditors are required under general purpose financial reporting to review covenant compliance. However, by informing lenders directly that they have no knowledge of default, auditors may increase their litigation risk. We find that auditor covenant compliance assurance clauses are significantly associated with more complex contractual adjustments to net income, the extent of reliance on accounting information in the contract, intangibility of borrowers’ assets, the number of lenders and loan maturity. We provide novel evidence of the audit market enhancing efficient contracting.

Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 31, 18-44 open access
We investigate whether and how political systems affect the financial soundness of conventional and Islamic banks. Using factors extracted from principal component analysis, we find that Islamic banks underperform their conventional counterparts in more democratic political systems but outperform them in hybrid and Sharia’a-based legal systems. The findings reflect the challenges Islamic banks face in Western countries in terms of perception, financial infrastructure, and regulatory constraints while mirroring the recognition of their specificities and their cultural and religious compliance with Sharia’a law in Muslim countries. The findings are robust to a battery of alternative estimation techniques and methods of correcting standard errors.

Capital and resolution policies: The US interbank market

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 30, 229-239 open access
We develop an empirically based simulation study to test two types of policies designed to control systemic risk: preventive policies targeting capital requirements and mitigation policies targeting default resolution. We find that capital buffers reduce both the number of defaults and the resulting losses. The loss reduction benefit increases as the magnitude of adverse shocks becomes higher. We find that a simple branch-breakup resolution strategy reduces the loss borne by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The mitigation effect becomes higher as the fraction of assets resolved through auctions and auction competitiveness increase.

Loan Sales and Bank Liquidity Management: Evidence from a U.S. Credit Register

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(10), 3455-3501
We examine how banks use loan sales to manage liquidity during periods of marketwide stress and the associated spillovers to market prices. We track the dynamics of loan share ownership in the secondary market using data from a U. S. supervisory register of syndicated loans. Controlling for loan quality using loan-year fixed effects, we find that banks reliant on wholesale funding were more likely to exit syndicates through sales during 2007/08. This effect is stronger for banks dependent on short-term funding and holding fewer liquid securities. In addition, secondary market prices decrease significantly more for loans funded by liquidity-strained banks.

The Dynamics of Investment, Payout and Debt

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(11), 3759-3800
We develop a dynamic agency model of a public corporation. Managers underinvest because of risk aversion. They smooth rents and payout. They do not exploit interest tax shields fully. The interactions of investment, debt, and payout decisions can change drastically depending on managers’preferences. Managers with power utility set investment, debt, and payout proportional to the firm’s net worth, generating a constant (possibly negative) net debt ratio. With exponential utility, investment decisions are separated from decisions about debt and payout. More profitable firms become cash cows, and less profitable firms accumulate debt, as in a pecking-order model.

Loan Sales and Bank Liquidity Management: Evidence from a U.S. Credit Register

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(10), 3455-3501
We examine how banks use loan sales to manage liquidity during periods of marketwide stress and the associated spillovers to market prices. We track the dynamics of loan share ownership in the secondary market using data from a U.S. supervisory register of syndicated loans. Controlling for loan quality using loan-year fixed effects, we find that banks reliant on wholesale funding were more likely to exit syndicates through sales during 2007/08. This effect is stronger for banks dependent on short-term funding and holding fewer liquid securities. In addition, secondary market prices decrease significantly more for loans funded by liquidity-strained banks. Received November 16, 2015; editorial decision January 9, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

An international forensic perspective of the determinants of bank CDS spreads

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 33, 60-70
Against the backdrop of the Great Recession, investigating the differences in institutional frameworks became important to explain the heterogeneity in the market perception about the credit quality and default risk of banks in different countries. Using data for 118 banks of 30 countries over the period 2004–2011, we find that an improvement of the quality of economic and legal institutions can help in reducing banks' CDS spreads, as banks operating in countries where the regulatory quality is stronger tend to be less affected by spikes in financial stress of 2008–2009. Considering a series of indicators of the financial structure of the banking system, our results reveal that more concentration of the banking sector, a stronger presence of foreign banks, a deterioration of the banking sector health or the lack of alternative means of finance is associated with higher CDS spreads of banks. We also show that the dynamics of bank CDS spreads accrue to: (i) the quality of banks’ balance sheet; (ii) (il)liquidity of banks’ assets; (iii) how profitable banks’ operations are; and (iv) the banks’ leverage ratios. Finally, higher CDS spreads of banks tend to be associated with periods of high inflation and low GDP growth.

Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2017 132(1), 271-316 open access
This article argues that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the Great Recession. Using micro-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand. These results are not driven by firms being less productive, having expanded too much prior to the Great Recession, or being generally more sensitive to fluctuations in either aggregate employment or house prices. Likewise, at the county level, we find that counties with more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger declines in employment in response to local consumer demand shocks. Accordingly, firms’ balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment. Our results suggest a possible role for employment policies that target firms directly besides conventional stimulus.

Rollover risk as market discipline: A two-sided inefficiency

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(2), 252-269 open access
Why does the market discipline that financial intermediaries face seem too weak during booms and too strong during crises? This paper shows in a general equilibrium setting that rollover risk as a disciplining device is effective only if all intermediaries face purely idiosyncratic risk. However, if assets are correlated, a two-sided inefficiency arises: Good aggregate states have intermediaries taking excessive risks, while bad aggregate states suffer from costly fire sales. The driving force behind this inefficiency is an amplifying feedback loop between asset values and market discipline. In equilibrium, financial intermediaries inefficiently amplify both positive and negative aggregate shocks.