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Simulating Securities Markets Operations: Some Examples, Observations, and Comments

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1970 5(1), 115
This paper discusses the use of simulation as a means of studying the operations of securities markets. To place simulation's role in the proper context, Section I begins with a review of public policy, research, and teaching considerations that have combined in recent years to create a growing need to improve our understanding of the operations of these markets. Following this is a brief discussion of the limitations of traditional price theory models to meet this need. Section II demonstrates the significant, yet largely untapped, potential of simulation in this regard.

Risk and the Optimal Utilization of Capital

Review of Economic Studies 1970 37(2), 253-259
Journal Article Risk and the Optimal Utilization of Capital Get access Kenneth R. Smith Kenneth R. Smith University of Wisconsin, Madison Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 37, Issue 2, April 1970, Pages 253–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296417 Published: 01 April 1970 Article history Received: 01 December 1968 Accepted: 01 July 1969 Published: 01 April 1970

On Theory Construction and Verification.

The Accounting Review 1970 45(3), 444-457
The article presents an analysis of the nature of empirical theories for the purpose of providing a relief for some current and proposed theories of accounting. The process of theory construction is imperfectly understood. Even though it is not clear how theories are constructed, however, one can note that a new theory usually arises as a result of "anomalies" in the old theory. The purpose of the new theory or the modified theory is to make the unexpected expected, to convert the anomalous occurrence into an expected and explained occurrence. Theories are expressed in a language, and therefore the study of language is pertinent to the study of theories. A theory of empirical science may be divided into two parts, first, a Formal System which is composed of abstract symbols and a set of syntactical rules for manipulating those symbols; and second, an Interpretation of the formal system which connects certain symbols to observations via semantical rules. One of the difficulties encountered in accounting theory construction and verification is that different accounting theories are often theories about different subject matters.

Capital Budgeting Analysis with the Timing of Events Uncertain.

The Accounting Review 1970 45(1), 103-114
During the preparation of a capital budgeting study the decision-maker frequently encounters a situation where the timing of an important economic event is subject to uncertainty. Most typical of this class of problem is one in which doubt exists as to the useful life of a proposed machine. The analyst is aware that the associated revenue stream will come to an end at some future time, but it is not often that this time can be specified exactly. Similar characteristics are present in the uncertain timing of a research and development project's pay-off period and in the time lag between an advertising expenditure and the resulting increase in revenue. Several different approaches are now taken in facing the problem of uncertain timing. One common method is to treat the decision-maker's estimate of the most likely time as though it were certain. This estimate may be derived through a careful subjective probability analysis or simply from an intuitive feeling. If, greater precision is needed for some special application, there are two alternatives to the laborious task of computing the probabilities by hand. Those who have access to a digital computer will find it well worth while to write or otherwise obtain a program to produce probabilities.