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Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling
Observed asset prices are known to deviate from their efficient values due to market microstructure frictions. This paper studies the effects of market microstructure noise on nonparametric estimates of the efficient price integrated variance. Specifically, we consider both asymptotic and finite sample effects of general market microstructure noise on realized variance estimates. The finite sample results culminate in a variance/bias trade-off that serves as a basis for an optimal sampling theory. Our theory also considers the effects of pre-filtering the data and proposes a novel bias-correction. We show that this theory is easily implementable in practise requiring only the calculation of sample moments of the observable high-frequency return data.
Analyst Behavior Following IPOs: The "Bubble Period" Evidence
[We examine over 7400 analyst recommendations made in the year after going public for IPOs from 1999 to 2000. Initiations of coverage at the end of the quiet period come almost exclusively from affiliated analysts, whereas initiations afterward are predominantly from unaffiliated analysts. Contrary to previous findings, we find no evidence that the market discounts recommendations from affiliated analysts once we control for recommendation characteristics and timing. Moreover, analyst coverage in the first year is not affected by underpricing, and after the flurry of initiations at the end of the quiet period, the number of analysts covering a firm during the following 11 months is unrelated to the number of managing underwriters.]
The Effect of Regulation FD on Transient Institutional Investors' Trading Behavior
We assess the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) on the trading behavior of transient institutional investors in the quarter prior to a bad news break in a string of consecutive earnings increases. Bad news breaks are defined as breaks that are by growth firms, preceded by longer strings of consecutive earnings increases, followed by longer strings of consecutive earnings decreases, and associated with larger declines in earnings. Pre–Reg FD transient institutions have abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter immediately preceding a bad news break. This abnormal selling is confined to firms that hold conference calls in the pre–Reg FD period. However, in the post–Reg FD period transient institutions do not exhibit similar abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter before a bad news break. Furthermore, after Reg FD transient institutions allocate less of their stock portfolios to conference call firms relative to non–conference call firms in the quarters prior to a bad news break. These results demonstrate that Reg FD has had an impact on management's selective disclosure behavior and significantly changed the trading behavior of transient institutions.
Audit Committee Incentive Compensation and Accounting Restatements*
This study investigates whether incentive-based compensation for audit committee members is associated with accounting restatements. We use an agency framework to predict that short-term (long-term) incentive compensation for audit committee members will increase (decrease) the likelihood of accounting restatements due to error or fraud. Using a matched-sample logistic regression with 153 restatement and 153 nonrestatement companies, we find the predicted positive relation between short-term incentive compensation (short-term stock option grants) for audit committee members and likelihood of restatement. However, the long-term incentive compensation results contradict prediction and indicate a significant positive relation between audit committee member long-term incentive compensation {long-term stock option grants) and restatement likelihood. Supplemental testing provides evidence that the findings generally are robust to numerous alternative measures and models. The results raise questions about stock option grants for audit committee members and suggest the need for additional theoretical and empirical research to clarify the audit committee's role and incentives in agency frameworks.
The market reaction to Arthur Andersen's role in the Enron scandal: Loss of reputation or confounding effects?
This paper tests the hypothesis that negative client stock returns following the revelation that Enron documents had been shredded are attributable to confounding effects as opposed to a loss of Andersen's reputation. We find that a sharp decline in oil prices along with differences in the industry composition of the Andersen and Big 4 client portfolios combine to produce significantly more negative returns for Andersen clients relative to Big 4 clients, and for Andersen's Houston office clients relative to its clients in other locations. The market reaction to two other Enron-related events also offers little support for a reputation effect.
Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing
I compare the fees, expenses, and trading costs society pays to invest in the U.S. stock market with an estimate of what would be paid if everyone invested passively. Averaging over 1980–2006, I find investors spend 0.67% of the aggregate value of the market each year searching for superior returns. Society's capitalized cost of price discovery is at least 10% of the current market cap. Under reasonable assumptions, the typical investor would increase his average annual return by 67 basis points over the 1980–2006 period if he switched to a passive market portfolio.
The divergence of liquidity commonality in the cross-section of stocks☆
This paper demonstrates that the cross-sectional variation of liquidity commonality has increased over the period 1963–2005. The divergence of systematic liquidity can be explained by patterns in institutional ownership over the sample period. We document that our findings are associated with similar patterns in systematic risk. Our analysis also indicates that the ability to diversify systematic risk and aggregate liquidity shocks by holding large-cap stocks has declined. The evidence suggests that the fragility of the US equity market to unanticipated events has increased over the past few decades.
Big business stability and economic growth: Is what's good for General Motors good for America?☆
What is good for a country may not be good for its big businesses, at least recently. More turnover in top businesses correlates with faster per capita gross domestic product, productivity, and capital growth; supporting Schumpeter's [1942. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, third ed., Harper & Bros., New York, NY] theory of “creative destruction”—innovative firms blooming as stagnant ones wither. These correlations are greater in more developed economies, supporting Aghion and Howitt's [1992. A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica 60, 323–351] thesis that creative destruction matters more to economies nearer the technological frontier. More big business turnover also correlates with smaller government, common law, less bank-dependence, stronger shareholder rights, and greater openness.
International Investment Patterns
We provide a systematic analysis of the bilateral factors driving portfolio equity holdings across countries. We find that bilateral equity holdings are strongly correlated with bilateral trade in goods and services. Larger bilateral positions are also associated with proxies for informational proximity.