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Who Herds? Who Doesn't? Estimates of Analysts’ Herding Propensity in Forecasting Earnings

Contemporary Accounting Research 2017 34(1), 374-399
Abstract We develop parametric estimates of the imitation‐driven herding propensity of analysts and their earnings forecasts. By invoking rational expectations, we solve an explicit analyst optimization problem and estimate herding propensity using two measures: First, we estimate analysts’ posterior beliefs using actual earnings plus a realization drawn from a mean‐zero normal distribution. Second, we estimate herding propensity without seeding a random error, and allow for nonorthogonal information signals. In doing so, we avoid using the analyst's prior forecast as the proxy for his posterior beliefs, which is a traditional criticism in the literature. We find that more than 60 percent of analysts herd toward the prevailing consensus, and herding propensity is associated with various economic factors. We also validate our herding propensity measure by confirming its predictive power in explaining the cross‐sectional variation in analysts’ out‐of‐sample herding behavior and forecast accuracy. Finally, we find that forecasts adjusted for analysts’ herding propensity are less biased than the raw forecasts. This adjustment formula can help researchers and investors obtain better proxies for analysts’ unbiased earnings forecasts.

Fiduciary Duty of Loyalty and Corporate Culture

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2026 open access
Abstract We investigate the impact of the fiduciary duty of loyalty on corporate culture. Leveraging the staggered state adoption of corporate opportunity waiver (COW) laws as an exogenous fiduciary loyalty decline, we find that COW laws deteriorate corporate culture. This effect operates through increased board overlapping and director busyness and is more pronounced in firms with legal-expert directors, weaker governance, and greater outside opportunities as well as in smaller or younger firms. The results are robust across alternative measures, time frames, legislative events, estimation strategies, etc. Overall, the fiduciary duty of loyalty plays a crucial role in enhancing corporate culture and firm performance. (JEL G34, G38, M14)

Acquirer Internal Control Weaknesses in the Market for Corporate Control

Contemporary Accounting Research 2018 35(1), 211-244
Abstract This paper examines how disclosures regarding internal controls, required by sections 302 and 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 ( SOX ), affect the market for corporate control. We hypothesize that acquirers with internal control weaknesses ( ICW s) make suboptimal acquisition decisions based on poor‐quality information generated by their ineffective controls over financial reporting. We expect that such acquirers will be more likely to misestimate the value of their targets or the potential synergies from mergers, thereby overpaying for completed deals. Using a treatment sample of acquisitions made by acquirers that have disclosed ICW s and two matched control samples without ICW disclosures, we document that ICW acquirers experience a substantially more negative market response to acquisition announcements and have lower future performance than the two matched control samples without ICW disclosures. Overall, our results suggest that ineffective internal controls hinder decision making related to mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

Performance Commitments of Controlling Shareholders and Earnings Management

Contemporary Accounting Research 2015 32(3), 1099-1127
Abstract Since the Split Share Structure Reform took effect in China in 2005, holders of nontradable shares (controlling shareholders) have had to negotiate with holders of tradable shares (minority shareholders) to gain the liquidity right. In a typical deal reached, the controlling shareholder agrees to pay share compensation to minority shareholders and, in many cases, also pledges to meet a specific firm performance target (performance commitments). Using this reform setting, we examine the impact of performance commitments on earnings management behavior, and find the following results. First, less profitable firms have greater incentives to make performance commitments that help to reduce the share compensation that controlling shareholders have to pay. Second, firms entering into such commitments engage in earnings management to meet the promised performance target when actual performance falls short, and firms facing greater default costs tend to manage earnings more aggressively. Third, depending on the performance metric stipulated in the commitment contract, firms employ varying methods to manage earnings. We also find that firms that rely on earnings management to meet their performance targets display inferior performance in the postcommitment years relative to firms that do not. Overall, our evidence is consistent with performance commitment contracts (with costly defaults) between a firm's controlling and minority shareholders causing incentives for earnings management.

Star academicians: Gimmicks or game-changers?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2023 82, 102452
This paper examines the benefits of having an executive or director elected as a fellow of the Chinese Academies of Sciences and Engineering (i.e., a star academician). Evidence indicates that markets react positively to news of company executives/directors being elected. We further document that having a fellow spurs innovation, brings additional government subsidy, increases Tobin's q, lowers costs of capital, attracts analyst attention, and suppresses audit fees in the years following successful elections. These outcomes appear to be largely driven by fellows who (i) are executives rather than non-executive directors, and (ii) have held no government office.

Predicting Stock Market Returns with Aggregate Discretionary Accruals

Journal of Accounting Research 2010 48(4), 815-858
ABSTRACT We find that the positive relation between aggregate accruals and one‐year‐ahead market returns documented in Hirshleifer, Hou, and Teoh [2009] is driven by discretionary accruals but not normal accruals. The return forecasting power of aggregate discretionary accruals is robust to choices of sample periods, return measurements, estimation methods, business condition and risk premium proxies, and accrual models used to isolate discretionary accruals. Our extensive analysis shows that aggregate discretionary accruals, in sharp contrast to aggregate normal accruals, contain little information about overall business conditions or aggregate cash flows and display little co‐movement with ICAPM‐motivated risk premium proxies. Our findings imply that aggregate discretionary accruals likely reflect aggregate fluctuations in earnings management, thereby favoring the behavioral explanation that managers time aggregate equity markets to report earnings.

The sources of value creation in acquisitions of intangible assets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 154, 106879 open access
We document that acquirer announcement returns and post-M&A performance rise with a target's proportion of intangible assets. This shareholder wealth creation is associated with profitable acquirers purchasing complementary intangible assets and promising growth options from less profitable targets. Purchase prices are lower when targets face financial constraints limiting their ability to pursue promising investment opportunities. Analyzing acquisitions across different classes of intangible assets and matching successful with failed bids for targets with intangible assets support our main findings and suggest that these results are robust to endogeneity concerns. We conclude that target intangible assets provide important sources of M&A value creation.

Securities litigation and corporate tax avoidance

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 66, 101546
We examine whether litigation risk is systematically related to corporate tax avoidance. We find that the exogeneous reduction in the threat of securities class action litigation due to the 1999 ruling of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals effectively increases corporate tax avoidance, which is consistent with the notion that the threat of shareholder litigation plays a disciplinary role in curbing managerial rent extraction from tax avoidance activities. This finding is robust to alternative model specifications including two placebo tests and propensity score matching. We further find that labor union and alternative external governance mechanisms such as analyst coverage and institutional ownership mitigate this effect. Overall, our paper provides a significant contribution to the understanding of the relation between corporate governance and tax avoidance.