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Local demand shocks, excess comovement and return predictability

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 119, 105910
I investigate the importance of local demand shocks on excess comovements and return predictability for 4560 twin-pairs of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from 15 country-pairs. The returns on ETFs traded in the same country comove excessively with one another. These comovements are stronger for funds with greater liquidity and more competitors in the local market. In contrast, comovements are not materially different among ETFs that are attractive to fundamental (factor) investors. A local measure of mispricing, based on price-deviations between ETFs and their foreign peers, strongly predicts ETF return reversals. Betting against local mispricing yields significant abnormal returns of up to 20 percent per year after trading costs.

Deposit insurance and bank dividend policy

Journal of Financial Stability 2020 48, 100745 open access
This study investigates whether deposit insurance affects bank payout policy. To overcome identification concerns, we use the US Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which increased the maximum limit of deposit insurance coverage, leading to significant changes in the proportion of insured deposits to assets of some banks, while leaving others relatively unaffected. In line with the view that dividends convey information regarding financial health, we find that banks, which experience a substantial increase in insured deposits reduce dividends relative to others with a smaller increase in insured deposits. An extensive battery of further tests confirm that our results are not driven by events (such as capital injections due to participation in the Trouble Asset Relief Program, peer effects, state tax changes, deposit insurance pricing changes) that took place around the time of the increase in the maximum limit of deposit insurance coverage. Overall, the results of our empirical analysis suggest that banks holding fewer uninsured deposits pay less dividends.

Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 62, 101513
We review research on the effects of banks on the real economy, including, but not limited to articles in this Special Issue of the Journal of Corporate Finance. We focus primarily on US and European policy interventions that provide quasi-natural experiments with relatively exogenous shocks to bank output. We concentrate on single-country settings, avoiding potentially confounding differences in language, culture, law, currency, and so on, that complicate cross-country investigations. We also largely avoid the effects of financial crises, which are not exogenous to the banking system. The evidence strongly suggests positive effects of banks on the real economy.

Air pollution and analyst information production

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 60, 101536 open access
Recent studies investigate the impact of air pollution on labor productivity. We extend this literature by showing that air pollution negatively affects equity analyst information production. Analysts exposed to air pollution are less likely to issue timely forecasts or improve their forecast accuracy. Investigating the underlying mechanism, we find that analysts exposed to air pollution are less likely to provide bold (especially, negatively bold) forecasts. We also find evidence that market pricing is less sensitive to forecast revisions issued by analysts exposed to air pollution. Our results are robust to controlling for firm/analyst and time fixed effects, as well as additional specifications employing difference-in-differences designs and placebo tests.

Negotiating constraints in international audit firms in Saudi Arabia: Exploring the interaction of gender, politics and religion

Accounting, Organizations and Society 2020 84, 101103
The adoption of religious nationalism as a public project by the Saudi state continues to intimately shape the experiences of Saudi women, despite recent initiatives facilitating the participation of women in the workforce. Through interview-based evidence, the paper shows how patriarchal societal norms and practices rooted in a particular interpretation of Islam and enshrined in legislation are transported into the workplace and impact upon the daily lives of Saudi women auditors. Although various barriers to the progression of women auditors are already identified in the accounting and gender literature, our study provides additional insights into how the profession in Saudi Arabia takes a very distinctive gendered form due to the interaction of gender with religious and cultural norms. Additionally, our evidence highlights the role of the global audit firms, particularly the predominantly male audit managers and partners, in adapting their diversity management practices to navigate the constraints on female auditors in the Saudi context. We find evidence of pervasive inequality and the re-segregation of the Saudi female auditing workforce into ’woman-friendly’ areas, with potentially damaging effects on career progression.

How do legal standards matter? An empirical study of special litigation committees

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 60, 101543
We examine how legal standards affect outcomes in shareholder lawsuits where the defendants create Special Litigation Committees (SLCs). We compile a hand-collected sample of SLC associated lawsuits spanning a 26-year period from Jan 1, 1990 through Dec 31, 2015. We produce extensive descriptive statistics on the utilization, role and effect of SLCs. We find evidence that law matters for SLC outcomes: case dismissals are the lowest in Delaware jurisdiction where the courts apply stricter standards of judicial review. But in states with the weakest legal standards for SLC judicial review, SLC cases are more likely to be dismissed. Defense lawyers appear to exploit these differences to obtain dismissals at a higher rate, potentially impacting shareholder value. Our results have implications for the legal standard of review for SLC cases.

Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020 102(2), 287-303
By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect—the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents—and uncertainty effect—attentive agents might increase their acquisition of private information to compensate for the higher uncertainty after shocks.

Tick Size and Financial Reporting Quality in Small‐Cap Firms: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Journal of Accounting Research 2020 58(4), 869-914
ABSTRACT Using a natural experiment (the SEC's 2016 Tick Size Pilot Program), we investigate the effects of an increase in tick size on financial reporting quality. The tick size pilot program reduces algorithmic trading (AT) and increases fundamental investors’ information acquisition and trading activities. This in turn increases the scrutiny of managers’ financial reporting choices and reduces their incentives to engage in misreporting. Using a difference‐in‐differences research design, we find a significant decrease in the magnitude of discretionary accruals, a significant reduction in the likelihood of just meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts, and a marginally significant decrease in restatements for the treated firms in the pilot program. Furthermore, we find that the change in financial reporting quality is concentrated in treated firms experiencing decreases in AT and increases in information acquisition activities. We also find that the mispricing of accruals is significantly lower for treated firms. Taken together, our results suggest that an increase in tick size has a causal effect on firms’ financial reporting quality.

Bank regulatory size thresholds, merger and acquisition behavior, and small business lending

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 62, 101519
Size threshold-based regulatory requirements are pervasive in banking, but little is known about how they affect the merger and acquisition (M&A) behavior of banks around the thresholds. M&As cause discrete increases in size, so we hypothesize changes in banks' M&A behavior near regulatory size thresholds and associated real effects (changes in small business lending by the acquiring banks). We develop a novel research design that estimates indirect treatment effects for banks just below the thresholds. We find strong evidence of indirect treatment effects on bank M&A behavior and the small business lending of the merged banks. Our results illustrate the importance of indirect treatment effects in difference-in-differences studies involving size thresholds.

The Effect of Credit Ratings on Disclosure: Evidence from the Recalibration of Moody's Municipal Ratings

Journal of Accounting Research 2020 58(3), 693-739 open access
ABSTRACT This paper examines how credit rating levels affect municipal debt issuers’ disclosure decisions. Using exogenous upgrades in credit rating levels caused by the recalibration of Moody's municipal ratings scale in 2010, we find that upgraded municipalities significantly reduce their disclosure of required continuing financial information, relative to unaffected municipalities. Consistent with a reduction in debtholders’ demand for information driving these results, the reduction in disclosure is greater when municipal bonds are held by investors who relied more on disclosure ex ante. However, we also find that the reduction in disclosure does not manifest when issuers are monitored by underwriters with greater issuer‐specific expertise and when issuers are subject to direct regulatory enforcement through the receipt of federal funding. Overall, our results suggest that higher credit rating levels lower investor demand for disclosure in the municipal market, and highlight the role of underwriters and direct regulatory enforcement in maintaining disclosure levels when investor demand is low.