[Default probability plays a central role in the static trade-off theory of capital structure. We directly test this theory by regressing the probability of default on proxies for costs and benefits of debt. Contrary to predictions of the theory, firms with higher bankruptcy costs, i.e., smaller firms and firms with lower asset tangibility, choose capital structures with higher bankruptcy risk. Further analysis suggests that the capital structures of smaller firms with lower asset tangibility—which tend to have less access to capital markets—are more sensitive to negative profitability and equity value shocks, making them more susceptible to bankruptcy risk.]

This study finds that highly leveraged firms lose substantial market share to their more conservatively financed competitors in industry downturns. Specifically, firms in the top leverage decile in industries that experience output contractions see their sales decline by 26 percent more than do firms in the bottom leverage decile. A similar decline takes place in the market value of equity. These findings are consistent with the view that the indirect costs of financial distress are significant and positive. Consistent with the theory that firms with specialized products are especially vulnerable to financial distress, we find that highly leveraged firms that engage in research and development suffer the most in economically distressed periods. We also find that the adverse consequences of leverage are more pronounced in concentrated industries.

This paper presents a continuous time model of a firm that can dynamically adjust both its capital structure and its investment choices. In the model we endogenize the investment choice as well as firm value, which are both determined by an exogenous price process that describes the firm's product market. Within the context of this model we explore cross-sectional as well as time-series variation in debt ratios. We pay particular attention to interactions between financial distress costs and debtholder/equityholder agency problems and examine how the ability to dynamically adjust the debt ratio affects the deviation of actual debt ratios from their targets. Regressions estimated on simulated data generated by our model are roughly consistent with actual regressions estimated in the empirical literature.

This study analyzes the extent to which mutual funds purchase stocks based on their past returns as well as their tendency to exhibit "herding" behavior (i.e., buying and selling the same stocks at the same time). We find that 77 percent of the mutual funds were "momentum investors," buying stocks that were past winners; however, most did not systematically sell past losers. On average, funds that invested on momentum realized significantly better performance than other funds. We also find relatively weak evidence that funds tended to buy and sell the same stocks at the same time.

The paper is organized as follows: Section I examines the type of building, characterized by its size, that will be built at a given date if the land is to be developed at that time. Section II presents a simple two-date, two states of nature, model for determining the value of the vacant land for the case where the future price of building units, and hence the size of the building that is to be constructed, is uncertain. A simple numerical example that illustrates this valuation technique is presented in Section III . Section IV presents a comparative static analysis of this valuation model which includes, among other things, an analysis of the effect of uncertainty on vacant land value. Section V examines a model where the current price and rental rate on building units as well as land values are endogenous and Section VI provides a numerical example which illustrates how the valuation technique can be applied to value land with many possible building dates and many possible states of nature corresponding to each date.

This address explores the link between financial market shocks, investment choices, and various externalities that can arise from these choices. My analysis, which emphasizes differences between shocks to debt and equity markets, provides insights about some stylized facts from the macro finance literature. These insights are illustrated with a discussion of the technology boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the housing boom and bust in the mid‐2000s.

In existing models of information acquisition, all informed investors receive their information at the same time. This article analyzes trading behavior and equilibrium information acquisition when some investors receive common private information before others. The model implies that, under some conditions, investors will focus only on a subset of securities ('herding'), while neglecting other securities with identical exogenous characteristics. In addition, the model is consistent with empirical correlations that are suggestive of oft-cited trading strategies such as profit taking (short-term position reversal) and following the leader (mimicking earlier trades).

This paper describes the firm's decision to borrow short‐term versus long‐term and shows how the introduction of interest rate swaps affects this choice. The model shows that in the absence of a swap market, interest rate uncertainty can lead firms to substitute long‐term for short‐term financing. However, when swaps exist, there is a tendency for firms that expect their credit quality to improve to borrow short‐term and use swaps to hedge interest rate risk. The model suggests that, while the demand for fixed for floating swaps is enhanced, the demand for floating for fixed swaps is reduced by the presence of asymmetric information.

This paper describes the firm's decision to borrow short-term versus long-term and shows how the introduction of interest rate swaps affects this choice. The model shows that in the absence of a swap market, interest rate uncertainty can lead firms to substitute long-term for short-term financing. However, when swaps exist, there is a tendency for firms that expect their credit quality to improve to borrow short-term and use swaps to hedge interest rate risk. The model suggests that, while the demand for fixed for floating swaps is enhanced, the demand for floating for fixed swaps is reduced by the presence of asymmetric information.

An increase in the anticipated rate of inflation causes distortions in the housing market due to a nonindexed tax system. Since nominal rather than real interest payments are tax deductible, an increase in inflation decreases the aftertax cost of capital for homeowners, which in turn increases the demand for housing and increases its real price. This tax gain is shown to be larger for rental housing than for owner‐occupied housing. In a competitive market, this implies that although the real price of housing increases with a rise in anticipated inflation, real rental rates fall.