Wayne E. Ferson, The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Discussion, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 41, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Fourth Annual Meeting of the America Finance Association, New York, New York, December 28-30, 1985 (Jul., 1986), pp. 630-632

When the assumption of constant risk premiums is relaxed, financial valuation models may be tested, and risk measures estimated without specifying a market index or state variables. This is accomplished by examining the behavior of conditional expected returns. The approach is developed using a single risk premium asset pricing model as an example and then extended to models with multiple risk premiums. The methodology is illustrated using daily return data on the common stocks of the Dow Jones 30. The tests indicate that these returns are consistent with a single, time-varying risk premium.

[This article presents evidence on persistence in the relative investment performance of large, institutional equity managers. Similar to existing evidence for mutual funds, we find persistent performance concentrated in the managers with poor prior-period performance measures. A conditional approach, using time-varying measures of risk and abnormal performance, is better able to detect this persistence and to predict the future performance of the funds than are traditional methods.]

The literature has not established that a positive alpha, as traditionally measured, means that an investor would want to buy a fund. When alpha is defined using the client's utility function, a positive alpha generally means the client would want to buy. When markets are incomplete, investors will disagree about the attractiveness of a fund. We provide bounds on the expected disagreement with a traditional alpha and study the cross‐sectional relation of disagreement and investor heterogeneity with the flow response to past fund alphas. The effects are both economically and statistically significant.

We develop evidence on the finite sample properties of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in an asset pricing context. The models imply nonlinear, cross-equation restrictions on predictive regressions for security returns. We find that a two-stage GMM approach produces goodness-of-fit statistics that reject the restrictions too often. An iterated GMM approach has superior finite sample properties. The coefficient estimates are approximately unbiased in simpler models, but their asymptotic standard errors are understated. Simple adjustments for the standard errors are partially successful in correcting the bias. In more complex models the coefficients and their standard errors can be highly unreliable. The power of the tests to reject a single-premium model is higher against a two-premium, fixed-beta alternative than against a conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model with time-varying betas.

Habit persistence in preferences and durability of consumption goods both imply time-nonseparability in the derived utility for consumption expenditures. We study a simple model with both effects. Lagged consumption expenditures enter the Euler equation, where habit persistence implies that their coefficients are negative and durability implies positive coefficients. Estimating the sign of the coefficients addresses the question of which effect is dominant. Earlier empirical work on monthly data supports the durability of consumption expenditures. We find evidence in monthly, quarterly, and annual data that habit persistence dominates the effect of durability.

The use of predetermined variables to represent public information and time-variation has produced new insights about asset pricing models, but the literature on mutual fund performance has not exploited these insights. This paper advocates conditional performance evaluation in which the relevant expectations are conditioned on public information variables. We modify several classical performance measures to this end and find that the predetermined variables are both statistically and economically significant. Conditioning on public information controls for biases in traditional market timing models and makes the average performance of the mutual funds in our sample look better.

The methods of Michael R. Gibbons and Wayne Ferson (1985) are extended, relaxing the assumption that expected returns are linear functions of predetermined instruments. A model of conditional mean-variance spanning generalizes G. Huberman and S. Kandel (1987). The empirical results indicate that more than a single risk premium is needed to model expected stock and bond returns, but the number of common factors in the expected returns is small. However, when size-based common stock portfolios proxy for the risk factors, the authors reject the hypothesis that four of them describe the conditional expected returns of the other assets.

This article presents evidence on persistence in the relative investment performance of large, institutional equity managers. Similar to existing evidence for mutual funds, we find persistent performance concentrated in the managers with poor prior-period performance measures. A conditional approach, using time-varying measures of risk and abnormal performance, is better able to detect this persistence and to predict the future performance of the funds than are traditional methods.