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Working Orders in Limit Order Markets and Floor Exchanges

Journal of Finance 2007 62(4), 1589-1621 open access
We analyze limit order markets and floor exchanges, assuming an informed trader and discretionary liquidity traders use market orders and can either submit block orders or work their demands as a series of small orders. By working their demands, large market order traders pool with small traders. We show that every equilibrium on a floor exchange must involve at least partial pooling. Moreover, there is always a fully pooling (worked order) equilibrium on a floor exchange that is equivalent to a block order equilibrium in a limit order market.

Growth Opportunities and the Choice of Leverage, Debt Maturity, and Covenants

Journal of Finance 2007 62(2), 697-730
We investigate the effect of growth opportunities in a firm's investment opportunity set on its joint choice of leverage, debt maturity, and covenants. Using a database that contains detailed debt covenant information, we provide large‐sample evidence of the incidence of covenants in public debt and construct firm‐level indices of bondholder covenant protection. We find that covenant protection is increasing in growth opportunities, debt maturity, and leverage. We also document that the negative relation between leverage and growth opportunities is significantly attenuated by covenant protection, suggesting that covenants can mitigate the agency costs of debt for high growth firms.

Exchange Rates and Cash Flows in Differentiated Product Industries: A Simulation Approach

Journal of Finance 2007 62(5), 2475-2502 open access
How do exchange rate changes impact firms' cash flows? We extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question. We use prices, quantities, and product characteristics for differentiated products, coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition, to estimate marginal costs for all producers. Using a Monte Carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates. We illustrate the method using the market for bottled water. Our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one, different brands face very different exchange rate risks.

Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage‐Backed Securities Market

Journal of Finance 2007 62(2), 557-595 open access
“Limits of Arbitrage” theories hypothesize that the marginal investor in a particular asset market is a specialized arbitrageur rather than a diversified representative investor. We examine the mortgage‐backed securities (MBS) market in this light. We show that the risk of homeowner prepayment, which is a wash in the aggregate, is priced in the MBS market. The covariance of prepayment risk with aggregate wealth implies the wrong sign to match the observed prices of prepayment risk. The price of risk is better explained by a kernel based on MBS market‐wide specific risk, consistent with the specialized arbitrageur hypothesis.

Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity*

Journal of Finance 2007 62(5), 2367-2403 open access
This paper documents a close link between mispricing and liquidity by investigating stocks with high analyst disagreement. Previous research finds that these stocks tend to be overpriced, but that prices correct downwards as uncertainty about earnings is resolved. Our analysis suggests that one reason mispricing has persisted through the years is that analyst disagreement coincides with high trading costs. We also show that in the cross‐section, the less liquid stocks tend to be more severely overpriced. Additionally, increases in aggregate market liquidity accelerate the convergence of prices to fundamentals. As a result, returns of the initially overpriced stocks are negatively correlated with the time series of innovations in aggregate market liquidity.

Short‐Sales Constraints and Price Discovery: Evidence from the Hong Kong Market

Journal of Finance 2007 62(5), 2097-2121
Short‐sales practices in the Hong Kong stock market are unique in that only stocks on a list of designated securities can be sold short. By analyzing the price effects following the addition of individual stocks to the list, we find that short‐sales constraints tend to cause stock overvaluation and that the overvaluation effect is more dramatic for individual stocks for which wider dispersion of investor opinions exists. These findings are consistent with Miller's (1977) intuition and other optimism models. We also document higher volatility and less positive skewness of individual stock returns when short sales are allowed.

Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics

Journal of Finance 2007 62(4), 1663-1703 open access
We develop equilibrium models of exhaustible resource markets with endogenous extraction choices and prices. Our analysis demonstrates how adjustment costs can generate oil and gas forward price dynamics with two factors, consistent with the behavior these commodities exhibit in the Schwartz and Smith (2000) calibration. Our two‐factor model predicts that stochastic volatility will arise in these markets as a natural consequence of production adjustments, however, and we provide supporting empirical evidence. Differences between endogenous price processes from our general equilibrium model and exogenous processes in earlier papers can generate significant differences in both financial and real option values.

Managerial Ability, Compensation, and the Closed‐End Fund Discount

Journal of Finance 2007 62(2), 529-556
This paper shows that the existence of managerial ability, combined with the labor contract prevalent in the industry, implies that the closed‐end fund discount should exhibit many of the primary features documented in the literature. We evaluate the model's ability to match the quantitative features of the data, and find that it does well, although there is some observed behavior that remains to be explained.

Pay Me Later: Inside Debt and Its Role in Managerial Compensation

Journal of Finance 2007 62(4), 1551-1588 open access
Though widely used in executive compensation, inside debt has been almost entirely overlooked by prior work. We initiate this research by studying CEO pension arrangements in 237 large capitalization firms. Among our findings are that CEO compensation exhibits a balance between debt and equity incentives; the balance shifts systematically away from equity and toward debt as CEOs grow older; annual increases in pension entitlements represent about 10% of overall CEO compensation, and about 13% for CEOs aged 61–65; CEOs with high debt incentives manage their firms conservatively; and pension compensation influences patterns of CEO turnover and cash compensation.