Knowledge that Transforms

We study whether management practices determine merger and acquisition (M&A) success. We model management as an unobserved (latent) variable in a standard microeconomic model of the firm and derive firm-year management estimates. We validate these estimates against benchmark survey data on management practices and by using Monte Carlo simulation. We show that our measure is among the most important determinants of value creation in M&A deals, substantially increasing the predictive power of models that explain cumulative abnormal returns. Thus, we offer a measure of management practices that identifies the best-performing M&As. Our results are robust to the inclusion of acquirer fixed effects and many control variables, and to several other sensitivity tests. We identify the Q-theory as the key mechanism driving our results.

Using financial institution mergers as exogenous shocks to common ownership, we find that stock prices of commonly held firms incorporate future earnings news more quickly and are less sensitive to noise trades. Our analyses show that the increase in price informativeness is associated with: (1) increases in disclosure, (2) enhanced information production and diffusion, and (3) active trading by common owners. Further, we find that the investment sensitivity to Tobin's Q for commonly held firms is higher, indicating that managers of such firms rely more on market prices for information. These results are robust to controlling for the financial crisis, and to alternative control groups. Our findings suggest that common ownership has a positive effect on information production and influences real corporate decision by improving price informativeness.

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of the housing collateral lending channel on entrepreneurial activities by allowing homeowners to access property equity and invest in new businesses. We exploit dual housing property rights forms in China as an instrument, where complete access to collateral values is only legally granted to homeowners with full property rights (FPR), with no access for those without FPR. Using data from a large survey, we find that local house price growth significantly increases the probability of starting a new business for FPR homeowners relative to the control group. The effects are robust when we rely on the exogenous shock induced by the house purchase restriction and primarily driven by homeowners without household debt. Macro analysis supports a positive correlation between the concentration of FPR homeowners and employment and economic growth, where homeowners are better able to obtain external financing via the collateral channel.

We study how the information conveyed by fair value (FV) reporting is considered during an initial public offering (IPO). By examining how pre-IPO FV earnings are perceived by underwriters and investors, we document numerous original findings. First, IPOs with higher FV earnings have higher initial valuations and subsequent price revisions, indicating that underwriters and institutional investors value the information conveyed by FV reporting. Second, there is a significantly negative relation between FV earnings and post-IPO initial returns, whereas no such relation exists between non-FV earnings and initial returns. Third, we document robust positive associations between FV earnings and various measures of post-issue long-run stock performance. Fourth, we confirm the informational content of FV earnings by showing their predictive power for future earnings. We interpret these findings as supportive of the underreaction hypotheses, whereby aftermarket investors underreact to the information contained in FV reporting in the short run and gradually recognize the value of such information in the long run. We perform numerous tests to confirm the robustness of our results, including a test to address potential sample selection bias using the adoption of IFRS for small- and medium-sized entities (SMEs) as an exogenous determinant of FV reporting. Taken together, our findings advance our understanding of how fair value information is considered during an IPO issuance.

Do informed investors leave a trace in the market? This study shows that the portfolios composed of stocks with a high probability of informed trading (PIN) earn significantly higher returns under moving average strategies than a buy-and-hold strategy. The abnormal returns cannot be explained by a Fama-French five-factor model with an additional momentum factor or transaction costs and yet exists even after imposing delayed trades or controlling for firm size, volatility, and liquidity. Portfolios with alternative information asymmetry measures report similar albeit weaker results.

In this paper, we analyse the effect of the introduction of macroprudential limits on loan-to-value ratios on the borrowing behaviour of first-time-home-buyers in Ireland. Observing lending activity pre- and post- the unanticipated introduction of the regulations in 2015, we estimate the direct effect of the regulations on first-time-buyer leverage and house purchasing decisions. We exploit a unique provision in the macroprudential framework, that places different loan-to-value limits on properties above and below a fixed house price (€ 220,000), to determine the causal effect of the macroprudential measures on this group of borrowers. We find that LTVs fell by approximately 1.4 percentage points after the measures, with larger reductions recorded for high income borrowers. We also find that borrowers increased their downpayments in response to the regulations, with no change in the house price paid. However, findings differ across the income distribution, indicating the impact of wealth constraints on borrower behaviour. This research reinforces the importance of using granular data to understand the impact of loan-to-value regulations.

To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that the global measure of skewness in forecasts negatively predicts returns both for the G10 carry and for the carry based on a wide range of currencies. The global skewness measure is found to play a more robust role compared to the global expected growth or dispersion measure. Using a model of heterogeneous beliefs, I illustrate that the consumption risk of the unbiased agent can increase because of the presence of a pessimist, who negatively skews the forecast distribution. The additional consumption risk translates to higher currency risk, introducing a source of the carry risk premium.

China stock market regulators implemented market-wide circuit breakers when the market crash was imminent on the 4th of January 2016. This paper examines whether traders’ herding behaviour led to the circuit breaker trigger and limited success in moderating market reaction. Using intraday data, we show extensive herding in the pre-halt and post-halt periods on the event day. We find herding and excessive market volatility are mutually causative. Importantly, we identify herding stems from both market sentiments and fundamentals around the circuit breaker trigger. In a market dominated by individual investors, non-fundamental herding primarily characterises the Chinese stock market. Nonetheless, the uncertain and disruptive impact of the circuit breaker led to massive and rapid stocks sale underlying the fundamental herding. Investors trade in the direction of the crowd giving rise to self-enforced herding and greater market volatility, and culminating in the circuit breaker trigger.

We develop a dynamic programming methodology that seeks to maximize investor outcomes over multiple, potentially competing goals (such as upgrading a home, paying college tuition, or maintaining an income stream in retirement), even when financial resources are limited. Unlike Monte Carlo approaches currently in wide use in the wealth management industry, our approach uses investor preferences to dynamically make the optimal determination for fulfilling or not fulfilling each goal and for selecting the investor’s investment portfolio. This can be computed quickly, even for numerous investor goals spread over different or concurrent time periods, where each goal may be all-or-nothing or may allow for partial fulfillment. The probabilities of attaining each (full or partial) goal under the optimal scenario are also computed, so the investor can ensure the algorithm accurately reflects their preference for the relative importance of each of their goals. This approach vastly outperforms static portfolio strategies and target-date funds, widely used in the wealth management industry.

We show that hedge fund managers who more actively and astutely adjust the political sensitivity of their portfolios, in line with the dynamic U.S. political landscape, improve their investment performance. Funds that tilt their portfolios toward market segments expected to perform better during the new political regime, specifically around U.S. Presidential elections, generate significantly higher alphas. Further, hedge fund families with greater responsiveness to political changes exhibit persistently superior performance and are more likely to survive. Hedge fund investors reward more responsive fund managers with greater inflows.