Knowledge that Transforms

We propose a model of strategic renegotiation in which businesses are sequentially interconnected through their liabilities. This financing structure, which we refer to as a credit chain, gives rise to externalities, as each lender’s willingness to provide concessions to its borrower depends on how this lender’s own liabilities are expected to be renegotiated. We highlight how government interventions aimed at preventing default waves should account for private renegotiation incentives and interlinkages. In particular, we contrast the consequences of targeted subsidy and debt reduction programs following economic shocks, such as pandemics and financial crises.

The benefits of internal labor markets are largest when they include industries that utilize similar worker skills, thereby facilitating cross-industry worker reallocation and collaboration. We show that diversifying acquisitions occur more frequently among industry pairs with higher human capital transferability. Such acquisitions result in larger labor productivity gains and are less often undone in subsequent divestitures. Moreover, acquirers retain more high-skill workers and more often transfer workers to jobs in other industries inside the merged firm. Overall, our results link human capital reallocation with the value created by corporate diversification and provide an explanation for seemingly unrelated acquisitions.

We document significant negative effects of exposure to increased automation at work on household wealth accumulation. Beyond the income and savings channels, we uncover a novel mechanism contributing to the negative wealth effects of automation that arises through the endogenous optimal portfolio decisions of households. We show that households rebalance their financial wealth away from the stock market in response to increased human capital risk induced by pervasive automation, thereby attaining lower wealth levels and relative positions in the wealth distribution. Our evidence suggests that the portfolio channel amplifies the inequality-enhancing effects of increased automation.

How much do students benefit from student loan subsidies? We investigate this question, exploiting a natural experiment: a demand shock due to the 2011 tightening of credit standards in the PLUS program. We first establish that the Bennett hypothesis is best explained by colleges charging large markups over their marginal costs, rather than by advantageous selection. Then we use our results to estimate that students plausibly capture less than 60 cents of each dollar of resources expended on loan subsidies. We discuss alternative approaches that would more directly benefit students.

We label the degree to which individuals are more optimistic at long horizons relative to short horizons as the horizon bias. We examine whether time-series variation in the horizon bias can explain the time-series variation in the equity term structure. We use analyst earnings forecasts to measure the degree of the horizon bias in the stock market. Consistent with the intuition from a stylized present value model, we find that periods of above-average horizon bias are associated with negative term premiums, whereas periods of below-average horizon bias are associated with positive term premiums.

We propose and test a framework of private information acquisition and decision timing for asset allocators hiring outside investment managers. Using unique data on due diligence interactions between an institutional allocator and 860 hedge fund managers, we find that the production of private information complements public information. The allocator strategically chooses how much proprietary information to collect, reducing due diligence time by 18 months and improving outcomes. Funds selected by the manager outperform those not selected by 9% over 20 months. The outperformance relates to the allocator learning about fund return-to-scale constraints and manager skill before other investors.

We characterize the interaction between banks’ liquid assets purchases and deposit issuance decisions. Using global games, we derive a liquidity multiplier: the amount of deposits a bank can create when endowed with one additional unit of liquid asset to maintain a given level of liquidity risk. In our central theorem, we prove it is larger than unity. This entails that banks have a special role in enhancing liquidity provision, “multiplying” liquid assets into a larger quantity of deposits. Our theory has implications for banks’ balance sheet choices, the pricing of liquid securities, and the role of public liquidity provision.

We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by extending additional trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit is pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and for financially constrained customers. Customers then increase investment and employment in response to the increased trade financing, whereas suppliers expand their customer base, contributing to upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that trade credit redistributes the effects of monetary policy across regions and firms.

Factors display strong cross-sectional momentum that subsumes momentum in industries and other portfolio characteristics. The profits of all these momentum strategies—based on factors, industries, and other characteristics—significantly correlate with each other and therefore likely emanate from the same source. If factors display momentum, so will any set of portfolios with cross-sectional variation in factor loadings. Consistent with factors being at the root of momentum, we find that momentum in industry-neutral factors explains industry momentum, but industry momentum explains none of the factor momentum. Cross-sectional factor momentum concentrates in the first few highest-eigenvalue factors and is distinct from time-series factor momentum.

Mutual funds often invest in other funds. In this paper, we analyze the economics behind such cross-fund investments and investigate their financial stability implications. Using granular data for the German fund sector, our main findings are that cross-fund investments (a) are becoming increasingly important over time, (b) were heavily liquidated during March 2020, and (c) display measurable contagion effects. Overall, cross-fund investments can elevate structural fund sector vulnerabilities.