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A Test of the Theory of Reference-Dependent Preferences

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1997 112(2), 479-505
Eight alternative methods of eliciting preferences between money and a consumption good are identified: two of these are standard willingness-to-accept and willingness-to-pay measures. These methods differ with respect to the reference point used and the dimension in which responses are expressed. The loss aversion hypothesis of Tversky and Kahneman's theory of reference-dependent preferences predicts systematic differences between the preferences elicited by these methods. These predictions are tested by eliciting individuals' preferences for two private consumption goods; the experimental design is incentive-compatible and controls for income and substitution effects. The theory's predictions are broadly confirmed.

Bequests as Signals: An Explanation for the Equal Division Puzzle

Journal of Political Economy 2003 111(4), 733-764
In the United States, more than two‐thirds of decedents with multichild families divide their estates exactly equally among their children. In contrast, gifts given before death are usually unequal. These findings challenge the validity of existing theories regarding the determination of intergenerational transfers. In this paper, we develop a theory that accounts for this puzzle based on the notion that the division of bequests provides a signal about a parent’s altruistic preferences. The theory can also explain the norm of unigeniture, which prevails in other societies.

History's Role in Coordinating Decentralized Allocation Decisions

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(2), 292-316
What causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price? A satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems: Equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location, and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity. This paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems, reviews some solutions found in the literature, and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them. In addressing these issues, we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions.

History's Role in Coordinating Decentralized Allocation Decisions

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(2), 292-316
What causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price? A satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems: Equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location, and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity. This paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems, reviews some solutions found in the literature, and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them. In addressing these issues, we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions.

Tenancy Choice in a Competitive Framework with Transactions Costs

Journal of Political Economy 1984 92(6), 1121-1133
The choice between wage labor and sharecrop contracts is analyzed in a model that avoids both the pitfalls of previous models--inefficiency of sharecropping and indeterminacy--by introducing transactions costs with appropriate nonlinearities. Plantation data from the American South provide empirical support for the hypothesized nonlinearity in transactions costs and simultaneous determination of direct supervision and contractual choice.

The Demand for Supplementary Health Insurance, or Do Deductibles Matter?

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(4), 789-801
A model in which the individual with median anticipated health expenditures an choose the level of deductible supplementation for his group is used to estimate the demand for supplementary insurance. Differences between individually purchased and group insurance are discussed. Claims and expenditure data are used to show that demand for supplementation of outpatient services will be small unless the tax subsidy of insurance is continued. Experience from Medicare corroborates these predictions.

Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity

American Economic Review 2024 114(10), 3206-3249 open access
This paper provides empirically implementable sufficient statistics formulas for optimal nonlinear tax systems in the presence of across-income heterogeneity in preferences, inheritances, income-shifting capabilities, and other sources. We characterize optimal smooth tax systems on income and savings (or other commodities), as well as simpler tax systems. We use familiar elasticity concepts and a novel sufficient statistic for heterogeneity correlated with earnings ability: the difference between across-income variation in savings and the causal effect of income on savings. We apply these formulas to the United States and find that the optimal savings tax is mostly positive and progressive.