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Share repurchases, catering, and dividend substitution

Journal of Corporate Finance 2013 21, 36-50
We first extend Baker and Wurgler's (2004a) catering theory of dividends to share repurchases. Consistent with the notion that firms cater to investor demand for share repurchases, we report evidence that the market's time-varying repurchase premium positively affects firms' choice to repurchase shares. Next, we use the catering behavior as a novel framework for testing the dividend substitution hypothesis. Consistent with the notion that managers consider dividends and share repurchases to be substitute payout mechanisms, we find that the dividend premium negatively affects the repurchase choice, whereas the repurchase premium negatively affects the choice to pay dividends.

Asset Pricing in the Dark: The Cross-Section of OTC Stocks

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(12), 2985-3028
[Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than do listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared with premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity premium is several times higher, the size, value, and volatility premiums are similar, and the momentum premium is three times lower. The OTC illiquidity, size, value, and volatility premiums are largest among stocks held predominantly by retail investors and those not disclosing financial information. Theories of differences in investors' opinions and limits on short sales help explain these return premiums.]

The separation of ownership and control and corporate tax avoidance

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2013 56(2-3), 228-250
We examine whether variation in the separation of ownership and control influences the tax practices of private firms with different ownership structures. Fama and Jensen (1983) assert that when equity ownership and corporate decision-making are concentrated in just a small number of decision-makers, these owner-managers will likely be more risk averse and thus less willing to invest in risky projects. Because tax avoidance is a risky activity that can impose significant costs on a firm, we predict that firms with greater concentrations of ownership and control, and thus more risk averse managers, avoid less income tax than firms with less concentrated ownership and control. Our results are consistent with these expectations. However, we also consider a competing explanation for these findings. In particular, we examine whether certain private firms enjoy lower marginal costs of tax planning, which facilitate greater income tax avoidance. Our results are consistent with the marginal costs of tax avoidance and the separation of ownership and control both influencing corporate tax practices.

Location of Decision Rights Within Multinational Firms

Journal of Accounting Research 2013 51(5), 1261-1297 open access
ABSTRACT Using U.S.‐based multinational firm data gathered over more than two decades, we examine factors associated with the location of decision rights within these firms, whether the inappropriate assignment of decision rights is associated with poor firm performance, and whether these firms relocate decision rights in response to their evolving environments. We find that a mismatch between the location of decision rights and a firm's environment is associated with weak firm performance. We also show that the likelihood a parent company will alter the assignment of decision rights to a subsidiary is increasing in the extent of a mismatch although this likelihood is decreasing in the strength of the subsidiary's performance.

An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains

Review of Economic Studies 2013 80(1), 109-144
This article develops an elementary theory of global supply chains. We consider a world economy with an arbitrary number of countries, one factor of production, a continuum of intermediate goods and one final good. Production of the final good is sequential and subject to mistakes. In the unique free trade equilibrium, countries with lower probabilities of making mistakes at all stages specialize in later stages of production. Using this simple theoretical framework, we offer a first look at how vertical specialization shapes the interdependence of nations. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Informed Trading and Portfolio Returns

Review of Economic Studies 2013 80(1), 35-72
We solve a multi-period model of strategic trading with long-lived information in multiple assets with correlated innovations in fundamental values. Market makers in each asset can only condition their pricing functions on trading in each asset. Using daily non-public data from the New York Stock Exchange, we test the model's predictions on the conditional and unconditional lead–lag relations of institutional order flow and returns within portfolios. We find support for the model prediction of positive autocorrelations in portfolio returns as well as the predictions for how informed order flow positively predicts future returns and future informed order flow. We show that these relations strengthen for portfolios formed from assets within the same industry, which likely have higher correlation of fundamental values. Furthermore, we discuss issues that arise when testing implications of strategic models with imperfect proxies for the underlying strategic behaviour.

Discrete Choice Non-Response

Review of Economic Studies 2013 80(1), 343-364
Missing values are endemic in the data sets available to econometricians. This paper suggests a semiparametrically efficient likelihood-based approach to deal with general non-ignorable missing data problems for discrete choice models. Our concern is when the dependent variable and/or covariates are unobserved for some sampling units. A supplementary random sample of observations on all covariates may be available. The key insight of this paper is the recognition of non-response as a modification of choice-based (CB) samples. Semiparametrically efficient generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation appropriate for CB samples is then adapted for the non-response framework considered in this paper. Simulation results for various GMM estimators proposed here are very encouraging.

Comparing Treatments across Labor Markets: An Assessment of Nonexperimental Multiple-Treatment Strategies

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2013 95(5), 1691-1707
Abstract We study the effectiveness of nonexperimental strategies in adjusting for comparison group differences when using data from several programs, each implemented at a different location, to compare their effect if implemented at alternative locations. First, we adjust for individual characteristics differences simultaneously across all groups using unconfoundedness-based and conditional difference-in-difference methods for multiple treatments. Second, we adjust for differences in local economic conditions and stress their role after program participation. Our results show that it is critical to have sufficient overlap across locations in both dimensions and illustrate the difficulty of adjusting for local economic conditions that differ greatly across locations.