[Macroeconomic models with rational expectations find a new justification if these models appear as limits of some learning procedures. In this paper we consider the case in which, during the learning period, the predictions are obtained by regression. We exhibit the necessary and sufficient condition on the parameter of the model ensuring the convergence of the learning process. The limit is the solution of a rational expectations model in which the information set only includes the exogenous variables used in the auxiliary regression.]

The association between contractual arrangement and the marketing practices of export intermediaries and domestic supplies is examined. Based on data collected from a national sample of export management companies, the effect of structuring the export arrangement as a contractual, administrative, or conventional channel is analyzed. Prior research suggests that contractual form establishes the framework within which all the economic and sociopolitical interactions between the supplier and export middleman take place. Hypothesized relationship between export practices and channel structure are empirically tested, and the central role of structure in the operation of export channels is largely confirmed.

Cognitive styles measured by the Myers-Briggs indicator were studied to isolate how style influences decision behavior. An experiment was conducted in which experienced decision makers from hospitals and firms were asked to assess several capital expansion projects. To control for environmental factors, the project summaries were tailored to be compatible or incompatible with each individual's cognitive style. Risk and information sources were also controlled in the summary by using two levels of risk, defined by the spread of the return on investment (ROI) projections, and by using personal judgements or a computer-based model to provide the ROI estimates. The decision makers assessed each project, indicating their likelihood of adopting it and their perception of its risk. The impact of style, setting (hospital or firm), and the control factors (environment, information source, and risk) were related to a decision to adopt and assessments of risk by ANOVA techniques. Cognitive style was found to be an important factor in the decision to adopt and the assessment of risk. ST (sensation-thinking) styles saw the highest risk and were reluctant to adopt the projects, while SF (sensation-feeling) styles were risk tolerant and more likely to adopt the same projects. Our results support the views of cognitive theorists, who argue that decision style is an important determinant of behavior. Decisions seem to be a function of the decision maker's cognitive makeup which differs for different psychological types.

System designs for a planning MIS, in particular settings, are developed. The designs are described by one or more information generation modes (personal, interactive, reports, and analysis) applied in a particular sequence. Each design is related to planning stages (formulation, conceptualization, detailing, evaluation, and implementation) and to planning in “simple” and “complex” environments.

This paper derives the simple analytic solution to the special but important inventory problem in which the optimal policy is to reorder whenever units are demanded. The demand distribution can be any compound Poisson; the resupply distribution is arbitrary. Both the backorder case and the lost sales case are solved by generalizing a queueing theorem due to Palm. The steady state probabilities for the number of units in resupply (or repair) completely describe the item's long term behavior, and are simply the normalized values of the compound Poisson demand distribution based on the mean of the resupply distribution but not on the distribution itself. Knowledge of these state probabilities enables us to compute several measures of item supply performance as a function of the spare stock, s. Traditional inventory analysis can then be applied to minimize total cost based on estimates of holding cost and supply performance cost. The appendices contain a description of the algorithm and the computer program for calculating stuttering Poisson state probabilities and the measures of effectiveness for the backorder case. Numerical illustrations are also provided.