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Signaling and Takeover Deterrence With Stock Repurchases: Dutch Auctions Versus Fixed Price Tender Offers.

Journal of Finance 1994 49(4), 1373-1402
This article presents a model of repurchase tender offers in which firms choose between the Dutch auction method and the fixed price method. Dutch auction repurchases are more effective takeover deterrents, while fixed price repurchases are more effective signals of undervaluation. The model yields empirical implications regarding price effects of repurchases, likelihood of takeover, managerial compensation, and cross-sectional differences in the elasticity of the supply curve for shares.

Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(3), 403-436
This paper tests an optimal (S, s) rule in household durable purchases and examines directly the resulting aggregate expenditure dynamics. The observed decision rule responds to income uncertainty and growth as predicted by an (S, s) model resulting from transactions costs. Tests against liquidity constraints find that about half the households purchase according to an optimal (S, s) rule. Aggregating the (S, s) rule over households produces a cross-section distribution of durables holdings. The empirical distribution is similar to that predicted theoretically, as is its response to aggregate shocks. Furthermore, simulations of aggregate expenditure based on the household distribution exhibit dynamics consistent with those observed in the 1980s. Copyright 1994 by University of Chicago Press.

Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(3), 403-436
This paper tests an optimal (S, s) rule in household durable purchases and examines directly the resulting aggregate expenditure dynamics. The observed decision rule responds to income uncertainty and growth as predicted by an (S, s) model resulting from transactions costs. Tests against liquidity constraints find that about half the households purchase according to an optimal (S, s) rule. Aggregating the (S, s) rule over households produces a cross-section distribution of durables holdings. The empirical distribution is similar to that predicted theoretically, as is its response to aggregate shocks. Furthermore, simulations of aggregate expenditure based on the household distribution exhibit dynamics consistent with those observed in the 1980s.

Teenage Fertility and High School Completion

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1994 76(3), 413 open access
This paper uses 1979-85 data on women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine the eco-nomic, sociological, and institutional antecedents of adolescent childbearing and high school completion and to analyze the effect of early childbearing on school completion. Fertility and school completion are modeled as dichotomous outcomes, and their determinants are estimated using a bivariate probit specification. The paper finds evidence that adolescent childbearing is an endogenous determinant of high school completion and that failing to account for this endogeneity leads to an over-estimate of the schooling consequences of early childbearing.

How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1994 76(1), 103
Abrtmcr-An important question in the study of aging concerns the rate at which people physically deteriorate with age.HOW much, for example.CB~ be physically expected of, say, a healthy, non-injured 75.year-old man or woman relative to what be or she could do at ape 4% This paper applies econometric techniques to data on men's track and field and road racing remrds by age to estimate the rate at which men sknv down with asc.Eight track.eight field.and eleven road racing events me considered.The main econometric technique usad is a combination of the polytwmial-spline method and the frontier-function method.A number of the evetttr have been pooled to provide more et%cient estimates.1.

Optimal Design of Securities under Asymmetric Information

Review of Financial Studies 1994 7(1), 1-44
A firm must decide what security to sell to raise external capital to finance a profitable investment opportunity. There is ex ante asymmetry of information regarding the probability distribution of cash flow generated by the investment. In this setting, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a security to be optimal (uniquely optimal), that is, for pooling at this security to be an (the unique) equilibrium outcome. Using these conditions we show that the debt contract is (uniquely) optimal if and only if cash flows are ordered by (strict) conditional stochastic dominance. Finally, we derive an equivalence relationship between optimal security designs and designs that minimize mispricing.

Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy

Review of Economic Studies 1994 61(2), 197-222
In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of investment to the availability of internal funds using the hierarchy of finance approach to corporate finance. We characterize the empirical implications of this approach for dynamic investment models and test these implications using firm-level data. The model we estimate is based on the Euler equation for optimal capital accumulation in the presence of convex adjustment costs. The theoretical model explicitly allows for debt finance and financial assets. The empirical investigation uses U.K. company panel data to estimate dynamic investment models using GMM and tests the derived implications.

The collapse of First Executive Corporation junk bonds, adverse publicity, and the ‘run on the bank’ phenomenon

Journal of Financial Economics 1994 36(3), 287-336
In April 1991, regulators seized the major subsidiaries of First Executive Corporation (FE), an insurer that invested heavily in junk bonds. During the junk bond market turmoil of 1989–1990, adverse publicity fueled a bank run at FE, forcing a $4 billion portfolio liquidation before the market rose 50–60% in 1991–1992. More traditional insurers did not receive commensurate press coverage, despite their substantial exposure to real estate declines, which were roughly 2.5 times the junk bond decline. Seizure of FE's subsidiaries was defensible, although FE would have become solvent within a year, given average junk bond market appreciation.

Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models

Econometrica 1994 62(1), 73
The author derives some exact finite sample disbibutions and characterizes the tail behavior of maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating coefficients in error correction models. The reduced rank regression estimator has a distribution with Cauchy-like tails and no finite moments of integer order. The maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients in a particular triangular system representation has matrix t-distribution tails with finite integer moments to order T - n + r, where T is the sample size, n is the total number of variables, and r is the dimension of cointegration space. This helps explain some recent simulation studies where extreme outliers occur more frequently for the reduced rank regression estimator than for alternative asymptotically efficient procedures based on triangular representation. Copyright 1994 by The Econometric Society.