ABSTRACT Momentum effects in stock returns need not imply investor irrationality, heterogeneous information, or market frictions. A simple, single‐firm model with a standard pricing kernel can produce such effects when expected dividend growth rates vary over time. An enhanced model, under which persistent growth rate shocks occur episodically, can match many of the features documented by the empirical research. The same basic mechanism could potentially account for underreaction anomalies in general.
The Review of Economics and Statistics200284(4), 742-750
Although the double-bound (DB) format for the discrete choice contingent valuation method (CVM) has the benefit of higher efficiency in welfare benefit estimates than the single-bound (SB) discrete choice CVM, it has been subject to criticism due to evidence that some of the responses to the second bid may be inconsistent with the responses to the first bid. As a means to reduce the potential for response bias on the follow-up bid in multiple-bound discrete choice formats such as the DB model while maintaining much of the efficiency gains of the multiple-bound approach, we introduce the one-and-one-half-bound (OOHB) approach and present a real-world application. In a laboratory setting, despite the fact that the OOHB model uses less information than the DB approach, the efficiency gains in moving from SB to OOHB capture a large portion of the gain associated with moving from SB to DB. Utilizing distribution-free seminonparametric estimation techniques on a split-survey data set, our OOHB estimates demonstrated higher consistency with respect to the follow-up data than the DB estimates and were more efficient as well. Hence, OOHB may serve as a viable alternative to the DB format in situations where follow-up response bias may be a concern.
We present evidence that the equity premium and the premium of value stocks over growth stocks are consistent in the 198296 period with a stochastic discount factor calculated as the weighted average of individual households' marginal rate of substitution with low and economically plausible values of the relative risk aversion coefficient. Since these premia are not explained with an SDF calculated as the per capita marginal rate of substitution with a low value of the RRA coefficient, the evidence supports the hypothesis of incomplete consumption insurance. We also present evidence that an SDF calculated as the per capita marginal rate of substitution is better able to explain the equity premium and does so with a lower value of the RRA coefficient, as the definition of asset holders is tightened to recognize the limited participation of households in the capital market.
If arbitrage is costly and noise traders are active, asset prices may deviate from fundamental values for long periods of time. We use a sample of 158 closed‐end funds to show that noise‐trader sentiment, as proxied by retail‐investor flows, leads to fluctuations in the discount. Nevertheless, we reject the hypothesis that noise‐trader risk is the cause of the long‐run discount. Instead we find that funds which are more difficult to arbitrage have larger discounts, due to: (1) the censoring of the discount by the arbitrage bounds, and (2) the freedom of managers to increase charges when arbitrage is costly.
Journal of Political Economy2002110(2), 425-457open access
This study theoretically and empirically examines altruistic and joy-of-giving motivations underlying contributions to charitable activities. The theoretical analysis shows that in an economy with an infinitely large number of donors, impurely altruistic preferences lead to either asymptotically zero or complete crowd-out. The paper then establishes conditions on preferences that are sufficient to yield zero crowd-out in the limit. These conditions are fairly weak and quite plausible. An empirical representation of the model is estimated using a new 198692 panel of donations and government funding from the United States to 125 international relief and development organizations. Besides directly linking sources of public and private support, the econometric analysis controls for unobserved institution-specific factors, institution-specific changes in leadership, year-to-year changes in need, and expenditures by related organizations. The estimates show little evidence of crowd-out from either direct public or related private sources. Thus, at the margin, donations to these organizations appear to be motivated solely by joy-of-giving preferences. In addition to addressing the basic question of motives behind charitable giving, the results help explain the existing disparity between econometric and experimental crowd-out estimates.
ABSTRACT Firms differ in the extent to which they “pass through” changes in exchange rates into foreign currency prices and in their “exposure” to exchange rates—the responsiveness of their profits to changes in exchange rates. Because pricing affects profitability, a firm's pass‐through and exposure should be related. This paper develops models of exporting firms under imperfect competition to study these related phenomena. From these models we derive the optimal pass‐through decisions and the resulting exchange rate exposure. The models are estimated on eight Japanese export industries using both the price data pass‐through and financial data for exposure.
ABSTRACT What ties together the traditional commercial banking activities of deposit‐taking and lending? We argue that since banks often lend via commitments, their lending and deposit‐taking may be two manifestations of one primitive function: the provision of liquidity on demand. There will be synergies between the two activities to the extent that both require banks to hold large balances of liquid assets: If deposit withdrawals and commitment takedowns are imperfectly correlated, the two activities can share the costs of the liquid‐asset stockpile. We develop this idea with a simple model, and use a variety of data to test the model empirically.