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Money and Economic Activity in the Open Economy: The United Kingdom, 1880-1970

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(5), 979-1012
This paper presents a highly aggregated structural macroeconomic model of the U.K. economy. The specification is based on the insights provided by recent theoretical work on the working of open economies, and provides the most complete answer yet offered on the reverse causation controversy in monetary economics. The key empirical findings include relatively high interest rates and price elasticities in the relevant behavioral equations and a significant disequilibrium real balance effect on a broad expenditure aggregate. The results of simulation analysis of the model are reported and throw light on Britain's relatively poor postwar macroeconomic performance.

Money and Economic Activity in the Open Economy: The United Kingdom, 1880-1970

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(5), 979-1012
This paper presents a highly aggregated structural macroeconomic model of the U.K. economy. The specification is based on the insights provided by recent theoretical work on the working of open economies, and provides the most complete answer yet offered on the reverse causation controversy in monetary economics. The key empirical findings include relatively high interest rates and price elasticities in the relevant behavioral equations and a significant disequilibrium real balance effect on a broad expenditure aggregate. The results of simulation analysis of the model are reported and throw light on Britain's relatively poor postwar macroeconomic performance.

Econometric Estimators and the Edgeworth Approximation

Econometrica 1976 44(3), 421
[A specialization of the Edgeworth type formulae due to Chambers [4] to approximate the marginal distribution of an econometric estimator is presented, and its application to improvement of the use of asymptotic limits in significance testing is discussed. Appendices discuss the validity of Nagar approximations to estimator moments, the exact distribution of the instrumental variable estimator, the Edgeworth approximations for 3SLS and FIML estimators, and the use of Monte Carlo procedures for assessing the appropriate probability to attach to a given significance test.]