We examine listing applications by firms to the London Stock Exchange between 1891 and 1911. The exchange rejected 82 (13.1%) of the 628 applicants to its main board. Accepted applicants were twice as likely to pay dividends (and to pay twice as much) and had longer firm lives than rejected applicants. Rejected applicants were more likely to file for liquidation than successful applicants. These results remain even after we control for the primary benefits of the listing itself: liquidity and future capital inflows. In this era, the London Stock Exchange could screen applicants for listing.

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about i) the expected dividend growth rate and ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns both in and out of sample. Economically, a market-timing investor who accounts for the time-varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02% per year.

We represent risk factors as sums of orthogonal components capturing fluctuations with cycles of different length. The representation leads to novel spectral factor models in which systematic risk is allowed—without being forced—to vary across frequencies. Frequency-specific systematic risk is captured by a notion of spectral beta. We show that traditional factor models restrict the spectral betas to be constant across frequencies. The restriction can hide horizon-specific pricing effects that spectral factor models are designed to reveal. We illustrate how the methods may lead to economically meaningful dimensionality reduction in the factor space.

We estimate the distribution of television advertising elasticities and the distribution of the advertising return on investment (ROI) for a large number of products in many categories. Our results reveal substantially smaller advertising elasticities compared to the results documented in the literature, as well as a sizable percentage of statistically insignificant or negative estimates. The results are robust to functional form assumptions and are not driven by insufficient statistical power or measurement error. The ROI analysis shows negative ROIs at the margin for more than 80% of brands, implying over‐investment in advertising by most firms. Further, the overall ROI of the observed advertising schedule is only positive for one third of all brands.

We study how opening to trade affects economic growth in a model where heterogeneous firms can adopt new technologies already in use by other firms in their home country. We characterize the growth rate using a summary statistic of the profit distribution: the mean-min ratio. Opening to trade increases the profit spread through increased export opportunities and foreign competition, induces more rapid technology adoption, and generates faster growth. Quantitatively, these forces produce large welfare gains from trade by increasing an inefficiently low rate of technology adoption and economic growth. (JEL D21, D24, F14, F43, O33)

We consider whether hospital acquisitions of physicians lead to improved clinical outcomes for medicare patients aged 65 and older. The analysis combines 2005–2012 Medicare fee-for-service and enrollment data with merger and physician affiliation information from the Levin Reports and SK&A, respectively. We determine the effect of acquisitions on several health outcomes: mortality, acute myocardial infarctions, acute circulatory conditions, ischemic heart disease, glaucoma, symptomatic diabetes complications, and asymptomatic diabetes complications. These outcomes represent the progression of hypertension and diabetes into worse health states. Our results indicate that hospital acquisitions of existing physician practices have little effect on the health outcomes we consider.

We propose a new nonparametric kernel (NPK) mean-lower partial moments model for portfolio construction that includes transaction costs. In the theory section, we study the properties of the solution to this model. We use simulated financial returns to demonstrate that the NPK model outperforms the traditional moment (MOM) model in terms of estimation accuracy, portfolio performance and transaction costs. We then empirically test our model using actual hedge fund returns, because holding these assets can expose investors to substantial downside risk. Portfolios formed using our NPK model significantly outperform those formed using the MOM model and other conventional investment strategies, regardless of the performance metric examined. Our NPK model will therefore be useful in a wide variety of contexts requiring downside risk management

ABSTRACT We examine whether PCAOB inspection reports increase auditors' litigation risk. We find that inspection reports with audit deficiencies are positively associated with the number of lawsuits subsequently filed against the inspected auditor. These results are strongest when client-level lawsuit-triggering events have already occurred and when PCAOB inspection content is arguably more persuasive. Importantly, these results pertain exclusively to triennially inspected audit firms for which the set of other publicly available signals of audit quality is limited. Furthermore, we do not argue that inspection reports in isolation trigger lawsuits. Instead, once events such as restatement announcements or bankruptcies create the potential for legal action against the auditor, inspection reports provide a public signal about past noncompliance with auditing standards. This signal likely increases lawyers' perceived strength of case against the auditor before the lawsuit is filed and before lawyers have access to the audit workpapers.

Hotter years are associated with lower economic output in developing countries. We show that the effect of temperature on labor is an important part of the explanation. Using microdata from selected firms in India, we estimate reduced worker productivity and increased absenteeism on hot days. Climate control significantly mitigates productivity losses. In a national panel of Indian factories, annual plant output falls by about 2% per degree Celsius. This response appears to be driven by a reduction in the output elasticity of labor. Our estimates are large enough to explain previously observed output losses in cross-country panels.

ABSTRACT We investigate whether firms manage stock prices in anticipation of share issuance. Warrant exercise results in share issuance and warrant expiration dates are fixed years in advance, which precludes market timing. We predict firms manage stock prices to prevent (induce) warrant exercise when exercise is dilutive (anti-dilutive) to existing shareholders. To test our prediction, we examine stock returns around warrant expiration dates. We find that the difference between out-of-the-money (OTM) and in-the-money (ITM) firms' return patterns (i.e., post-expiration minus pre-expiration returns) is positive, and OTM (ITM) firms' return pattern is positive (negative). Return patterns of three sets of pseudo warrant firms differ from patterns of warrant firms. Return patterns are stronger when more feasible price changes are required to affect warrant expiration status, and firm-issued news items is a mechanism for price management. Thus, our findings provide evidence that firms engage in stock price management in anticipation of share issuance. JEL Classifications: G14; G15; G32; M41.