ABSTRACT We show theoretically that variable production costs reduce systematic risk of firms' cash flows if capital and variable inputs are complementary in firms' production and input prices are procyclical. In our dynamic model, this operating hedge effect is weaker for more profitable firms, giving rise to a gross profitability premium. Moreover, gross profitability and value factors are distinct and negatively correlated, and their premia are not captured by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). We estimate the model by simulated method of moments, and find that its main implications for stock returns and cash flow dynamics are quantitatively consistent with the data.

ABSTRACT This study examines whether and when credit ratings are useful for accounting fraud prediction. We find that negative rating actions by Standard & Poor’s (S&P), an issuer-paid credit rating agency (CRA), have predictive ability for fraud incremental to fraud prediction models (e.g., F-score) and other market participants. In contrast, rating actions by Egan-Jones Rating Company (EJR), an investor-paid CRA relying on public information, have less predictive ability, which is subsumed by S&P and other market participants. Our results are robust to including firms not covered by EJR, using only rating downgrades, controlling for firm characteristics, and using alternative benchmarks. We also find that the ability of negative S&P rating actions to predict fraud becomes stronger after the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Last, compared with EJR, S&P is quicker to take negative rating actions against fraud firms. In sum, our results suggest that issuer-paid CRAs’ information advantage helps predict accounting fraud. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL classifications: G24; K22; M41.

ABSTRACT There is limited evidence on the construct validity of the dependent measures commonly used in the literature on nonprofessional investor judgments. In this paper, we first survey the literature to understand the types of dependent measures typically used by researchers. We then conduct factor analyses to uncover linkages between dependent measures and the constructs underlying these nonprofessional investor judgments. Our results suggest that, while the wide variety of dependent measures can appear on their face to represent many nuanced economic constructs, these measures capture three distinct factors. These factors relate to nonprofessional investors’ (1) expectations regarding future firm performance and value, (2) holistic perceptions of the firm, and (3) evaluations of the risk associated with investing in the firm. Next, we provide recommendations for selecting, analyzing, and reporting dependent measures in future research. Finally, we provide directions for future research to further our understanding of the judgments made by investors.

ABSTRACT Measures of private equity (PE) performance based on cash flows do not account for a discount‐rate risk premium that is a component of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) alpha. We create secondary market PE indices and find that PE discount rates vary considerably. Net asset values are too smooth because they fail to reflect variation in discount rates. Although the CAPM alpha for our index is zero, the generalized public market equivalent based on cash flows is large and positive. We obtain similar results for a set of synthetic funds that invest in small cap stocks. Ignoring variation in PE discount rates can lead to a misallocation of capital.

ABSTRACT In this study, we examine whether firms respond to internal control weaknesses (ICWs) by requiring accounting-specific skills when hiring rank-and-file employees. Using unique data containing an extensive collection of job postings, we document significant increases in firms’ job postings that list accounting skills after the disclosure of an ICW. This effect is more pronounced for firms with better financial resources and when ICWs are more severe or personnel-related. In addition, our results extend to employees that are not specifically designated as accountants, suggesting a broader role for rank-and-file employees in influencing internal control quality. Finally, we find that increases in job postings with accounting skill requirements are associated with improvements in internal controls and a higher likelihood of ICW remediation. Overall, our findings shed new light on how firms respond to ineffective internal controls by increasing their emphasis on accounting skills in their workforce. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from the sources identified in the text. JEL Classifications: G30; J23; M41; M42.