Eurocurrency deposit rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are used to investigate term structure linkages over the 1979–85 and 1986–01 periods. A single common trend drives the term structure in each country, with 1-month rates generally having little or no influence in setting the long-term trend. Cointegration and common factor analyses based on the intracurrency common factors suggest weaker integration of economic fundamentals following the Plaza Accord in 1986. However, using a 10-year moving window to examine the 1986–01 period, similar tests show that integration increased between the 1986–95 and 1988–97 periods, but declined again by 1992–01.

We develop three empirical models to identify the impact of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) agreements on the mortgage lending behavior of small banking institutions during the period 1990–1997. CRA agreements are pledges banking institutions make to extend levels of credit to targeted populations and are often used by institutions to reaffirm their commitment to the goals of the CRA. We hypothesize that CRA agreements increase the level of competition for mortgage loans in the targeted area, which in turn causes a reduction in the quantity of mortgage credit to be supplied by community banks. Consistent with the quantity hypothesis, the results show that CRA agreements are associated with less mortgage lending, including lending in lower-income communities (CRA lending) and in minority communities (minority lending), by small community lenders. Evidence does not support a second hypothesis – that community banks respond to the increased competition by providing credit to riskier individuals.

Utilizing a utility-maximizing, Roy-type, discrete choice model of worker location in Canadian provinces and U.S. states that incorporates returns to skill, amenities, fixed costs, distance, language, and border effects, we find that individuals with higher skills migrate to areas with higher returns and that the 49th parallel attenuates migration. Simulations indicate that equalizing returns in the two countries has a modest effect on cross-country migration; however, reductions in border effects tend to have large nonlinear effects on it. Our results confirm the qualitative results of previous research emphasizing the importance of returns to skill and border effects in migration decisions.

Martin Feldstein:1 Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks today give us an opportunity to understand his thinking about monetary policy and about the Federal Reserve's actions during the past 15 years. It was a period of substantial accomplishment that no doubt reflects in considerable measure the views of the Chairman himself. The Fed's primary goal, price stability, has been achieved, with inflation down from 4 percent at the end of the 1980's to about 1.5 percent now. The 2-percentage-point difference between the interest rate on conventional Treasury bonds and on inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS) shows that financial markets expect inflation will remain at about 2 percent for at least the next decade.

Reforming Social Security to restore its financial balance is one of the most important public policy issues of the 21st century. Reform is essential whether one favors maintaining the basic structure of the current system or transforming this retirement program to include individual accounts. The needed national debate on Social Security must be based on the best, unbiased measures of the financial status of the program and on appropriate economic research. Unfortunately, projections, data, and research are often misused in reform debates. Even some “experts” are often uninformed about various aspects of the current and future financial status of Social Security. This paper highlights misconceptions and focuses on the facts of Social Security financing.

In early 1991, the Dutch pig-industry was struck by the so-called mystery swine disease. Large-scale laboratory investigations were undertaken to search for the etiological agent. We focused on isolating viruses and mycoplasmas, and we tested paired sera of affected sows for antibodies against ten known pig viruses. The mycoplasmas M. hyosynoviae, M. hyopneumoniae, and Acholeplasma laidlawii, and the viruses encephalomyocarditis virus and porcine enterovirus types 2 and 7 were isolated from individual pigs. An unknown agent, however, was isolated from 16 of 20 piglets and from 41 of 63 sows. This agent was characterised as a virus and designated Lelystad virus. No relationship between this virus and other viruses has yet been established. Of 165 sows reportedly afflicted by the disease, 123 (75 per cent) seroconverted to Lelystad virus, whereas less than 10 per cent seroconverted to any of the other virus isolates or to the known viral pathogens. Antibodies directed against Lelystad virus were also found in pigs with mystery swine disease in England, Germany, and in the United States. We conclude that infection with Lelystad virus is the likely cause of mystery swine disease.

This paper analyzes a model in which long‐term risky assets are illiquid due to adverse selection. The degree of adverse selection and hence the liquidity of these assets is determined endogenously by the amount of trade for reasons other than private information. I find that higher productivity leads to increased liquidity. Moreover, liquidity magnifies the effects of changes in productivity on investment and volume. High productivity implies that investors initiate larger scale risky projects which increases the riskiness of their incomes. Riskier incomes induce more sales of claims to high‐quality projects, causing liquidity to increase.

Institutions and Democratic Invention in 19th-Century America: Evidence from "Great Inventors," 1790-1930 by Zorina Khan and Kenneth L. Sokoloff. Published in volume 94, issue 2, pages 395-401 of American Economic Review, May 2004