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Language and the Theory of the Firm

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2007 122(1), 373-407
We characterize efficient technical languages and study their interaction with the scope and structure of organizations. Efficient languages use precise words for frequent events and vague words for unusual ones. A broader organizational scope allows for more synergies to be captured, but reduces within-unit efficiency, since it requires a more generic language. A manager working as specialized translator may also be used to achieve between-unit coordination while maintaining separate languages. Our theory reconciles two recent well-documented phenomena within organizations: the recent increase in information centralization and the reduction in hierarchical centralization.

Theft and taxes☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 84(3), 591-623
This paper analyzes the interaction between corporate taxes and corporate governance. We show that the design of the corporate tax system affects the amount of private benefits extracted by company insiders and that the quality of the corporate governance system affects the sensitivity of tax revenues to tax changes. Analyses of a tax enforcement crackdown in Russia and cross-country data on tax changes support this two-way interaction between corporate governance and corporate taxation.

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation of a Quantile Regression Model

Econometrica 2007 75(4), 1191-1208 open access
We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression function that is identified by requiring a specified quantile of the regression “error” conditional on an instrumental variable to be zero. The resulting estimating equation is a nonlinear integral equation of the first kind, which generates an ill-posed inverse problem. The integral operator and distribution of the instrumental variable are unknown and must be estimated nonparametrically. We show that the estimator is mean-square consistent, derive its rate of convergence in probability, and give conditions under which this rate is optimal in a minimax sense. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the estimator behaves well in finite samples.

Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 83(1), 123-170 open access
We extend the standard specification of the market price of risk for affine yield models, and apply it to U.S. Treasury data. Our specification often provides better fit, sometimes with very high statistical significance. The improved fit comes from the time-series rather than cross-sectional features of the yield curve. We derive conditions under which our specification does not admit arbitrage opportunities. The extension has extremely strong statistical significance for affine yield models with multiple square-root type variables. Although we focus on affine yield models, our specification can be used with other asset pricing models as well.

Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth

American Economic Review 2007 97(1), 429-443
We study a multisector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labor reallocation and balanced aggregate growth. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions. Along the balanced growth path, labor employed in the production of consumption goods gradually moves to the sector with the lowest TFP growth rate, until in the limit it is the only sector with nontrivial employment of this kind. The employment shares of intermediate and capital goods remain constant during the reallocation process. (JEL O41)

The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2007 42(1), 81-100 open access
This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) using U.S. monthly data for bond yields spanning the 1952–2003 sample period and ranging in maturity from one month to 10 years. We apply the Lagrange multiplier test developed by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001) and extend it to increase the test power by introducing economic variables as conditioning information and by using more than two bond yields in the model and testing the EH jointly on more than one pair of yields. While the conventional bivariate procedure provides mixed results, the more powerful testing procedures suggest rejection of the EH throughout the maturity spectrum examined.

On the Segmentation of Markets

Journal of Political Economy 2007 115(4), 639-664 open access
This paper endogenizes the market structure of an economy with heterogeneous agents who want to form bilateral matches in the presence of search frictions and when utility is nontransferable. There exist infinitely many marketplaces, and each agent chooses which marketplace to be in: agents get to choose not only whom to match with but also whom they meet with. Perfect segmentation is obtained in equilibrium, where agents match with the first person they meet. All equilibria have the same matching pattern. Although perfect assortative matching is not obtained in equilibrium, the degree of assortativeness is greater than in standard models.

Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy

American Economic Review 2007 97(5), 1639-1666
This paper presents a theory of establishment size dynamics based on the accumulation of industry-specific human capital that simultaneously rationalizes the economy-wide facts on establishment growth rates, exit rates, and size distributions. The theory predicts that establishment growth and net exit rates should decline faster with size, and that the establishment size distribution should have thinner tails, in sectors that use specific human capital less intensively. We establish that there is substantial cross-sector heterogeneity in US establishment size dynamics and distributions, which is well explained by relative factor intensities. (JEL L11, L16, L25).

Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2007 122(1), 159-208 open access
This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program's effects on health and schooling. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties to develop Head Start proposals. The result was a large and lasting discontinuity in Head Start funding rates at the OEO cutoff for grant-writing assistance. We find evidence of a large drop at the OEO cutoff in mortality rates for children from causes that could be affected by Head Start, as well as suggestive evidence for a positive effect on educational attainment.