The option to obtain a General Education Development (GED) certificate changes the incentives facing high school students. This paper evaluates the effect of three different GED policy innovations on high school graduation rates. A six point decrease in the GED pass rate due to an increase in passing standards produced a 1.3 point decline in overall dropout rates. The introduction of a GED certification program in high schools in Oregon produced a four percent decrease in graduation rates. Introduction of GED certificates in California increased dropout rates by 3 points. The GED program induces high school students to drop out.

We study strategic information transmission in an organization consisting of an infinite sequence of individual decision-makers. Each decision-maker chooses an action and receives an informative but imperfect signal of the once-and-for-all realization of an unobserved state. The state affects all individuals' preferences over present and future decisions. Decision-makers do not directly observe the realized signals or actions of their predecessors. Instead, they must rely on cheap-talk messages in order to accumulate information about the state. Each decision-maker is therefore both a receiver of information with respect to his decision and a sender with respect to all future decisions. We show that if preferences are not perfectly aligned, “full learning” equilibria—ones in which the individuals' posterior beliefs eventually place full weight on the true state—do not exist. This is so both in the case of private communication, in which each individual only hears the message of his immediate predecessor, and in the case of public communication, in which a decision-maker hears the message of all his predecessors. Surprisingly, in the latter case full learning may be impossible even in the limit as all members of the organization become perfectly patient. We also consider the case where all individuals have access to a mediator who can work across time periods arbitrarily far apart. In this case, full learning equilibria exist.

We examine whether vocal markers of cognitive dissonance are useful for detecting financial misreporting. We use speech samples of CEOs during earnings conference calls, and generate vocal dissonance markers using automated vocal emotion analysis software. We begin by assessing construct validity for the software‐generated dissonance markers by correlating them with four dissonance‐from‐misreporting proxies obtained in a laboratory setting. We find a positive association between these proxies and vocal dissonance markers generated by the software, suggesting the software's dissonance markers have construct validity. Applying the software to CEO speech, we find that vocal dissonance markers are positively associated with the likelihood of irregularity restatements. The diagnostic accuracy levels are 11% better than chance and of similar magnitude to models based solely on financial accounting information. Moreover, the association between vocal dissonance markers and irregularity restatements holds even after controlling for financial accounting and linguistic‐based predictors. Our results provide new evidence on the role of vocal cues in detecting financial misreporting.

We study the random Strotz model, a version of the Strotz (1955) model with uncertainty about the nature of the temptation that will strike. We show that the random Strotz representation is unique and characterize a comparative notion of “more temptation averse.” Also, we demonstrate an unexpected connection between the random Strotz model and a generalization of the Gul–Pesendorfer (GP) (2001) model of temptation which allows for the temptation to be uncertain and which we call random GP. In particular, a preference over menus has a random GP representation if and only if it also has a representation via a random Strotz model with sufficiently smooth uncertainty about the intensity of temptation. We also show that choices of menus combined with choices from menus can distinguish the random GP and random Strotz models.

We investigate the relation between firms' weighted average cost of capital and internal financial resources, using mandatory pension contributions as a proxy for internal financial resources. Rauh (2006) documents a negative association between mandatory pension contributions and capital expenditures. We find that an increase in mandatory pension contributions increases the cost of capital, but only for firms facing greater external financing constraints. Our results suggest that firms' cost of capital is an intervening variable that can explain Rauh's finding that mandatory pension contributions (i.e., internal financing constraints) result in foregone investment. Overall, we provide evidence consistent with recent studies (Rauh 2006; Almeida and Campello 2007) that conclude that financial market frictions affect real economic activity and, in particular, corporate investment. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

A search-theoretic model of the retail market for illegal drugs is developed. Trade occurs in bilateral, potentially long-lived matches between sellers and buyers. Buyers incur search costs when experimenting with a new seller. Moral hazard is present because buyers learn purity only after a trade is made. This model is consistent with some new stylized facts about the drugs market, and it is informative for policy design. The effectiveness of different enforcement strategies is evaluated, including some novel ones that leverage the moral hazard present in the market.

While traditional finance theory holds that managers with option-laden incentive contracts may favor equity at the expense of debt, a risk-averse manager may be more likely to retain vested in-the-money options if the manager has private information that the firm's risk-adjusted performance will be better. It follows that vested option holdings should be positively associated with credit quality. In support of this, we find that vested option holdings have a strong negative association with loan pricing, especially for informationally sensitive loans, and also predict higher cash flows and credit ratings, a greater distance to default, and lower equity volatility.

We study linkages between financial development, international trade, and long-run growth using data since 1880 for 17 now-developed “Atlantic” economies and a set of cross country and dynamic panel data models. We find that finance and trade reinforce each other in data before 1930, but that these effects do not persist after the Second World War. Financial development affects growth positively throughout the sample period, while trade affects growth strongly and independently after 1945. We attribute the rising importance of trade to major post-World War II changes in tariffs and quantity restrictions associated with the GATT, the establishment of the European Common Market, and the gradual elimination of capital controls after 1973. The findings are robust to the use of ‘deep’ fundamentals such as legal origin and indicators of the political environment as instruments for financial development and trade. Financial development, however, links more closely than trade to these fundamentals.

We analyze how changes in government policy affect stock prices. Our general equilibrium model features uncertainty about government policy and a government whose decisions have both economic and noneconomic motives. The model makes numerous empirical predictions. Stock prices should fall at the announcement of a policy change, on average. The price decline should be large if uncertainty about government policy is large, and also if the policy change is preceded by a short or shallow economic downturn. Policy changes should increase volatilities and correlations among stocks. The jump risk premium associated with policy decisions should be positive, on average.

We examine how two attributes of preventive and detective controls affect employee performance and employee motivation. Specifically, we examine how the extent to which controls (1) restrict employees’ autonomy, and (2) provide more or less timely feedback impacts employees’ performance and intrinsic motivation. These characteristics are the defining differences between preventive and detective controls in that preventive controls restrict employee autonomy relative to detective controls and preventive controls always provide immediate feedback; whereas, detective controls can provide either immediate feedback or delayed feedback. We conduct an experiment to examine how and why these two types of formal controls impact employees’ performance in an incomplete contract setting in which one dimension of the employees’ task is compensated and one dimension is controlled. The results show that detective controls with more timely feedback improve employees’ performance toward the control objective, without affecting their intrinsic motivation. In contrast, the restriction of autonomy associated with preventive controls, has no additional effect on employees’ performance toward the control objective over detective controls with timely feedback but significantly reduces employees’ motivation. Neither control characteristic has a significant effect on employees’ performance on the compensated dimension of the task, suggesting that monetary incentives continue to provide an effective motivation. Our results reveal the importance of designing and implementing controls that provide timely feedback but do not restrict autonomy.