B Y the spring of I958 the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as a part of its work in aiding underdeveloped countries, had sent major economic missions to fifteen countries: British Guiana, Ceylon, Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Malaya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Surinam, Syria, and Turkey.' published reports of these missions comprise the largest single collection of information extant on the problems and characteristics of underdeveloped economies. A careful reader of these reports is impressed with the wealth of detail and the obviously painstaking care with which the material has been assembled. Since more than seven years have now elapsed since the first report, it is appropriate to review this material and to ask how much has been learned about the process of development and also how successful the mission reports have been in diagnosing the key issues and in establishing development programs. What elements might we look for or expect to find in reports of this kind? First, since programs are dependent on good statistics, both to provide a basis on which to make decisions and to evaluate the effects of decisions once taken, some careful attention to the establishment of an effective social accounting system is to be expected. Second, the major outlines of a development program are required: the targets, the operational policies to achieve the objectives, the calculations of probable outcomes, etc. Flexibility is a virtue, but the outline should be internally consistent and unambiguous in showing the connection between the objectives and the means to those objectives. Third, in order for the programs to be implemented, a priority system for projects must be carefully delineated, and it must be shown that the priorities are consistent with fulfilling the development objectives. Fourth, in terms of the paths to development the real alternatives open to the country should be carefully surveyed, including estimation of the pay-offs and costs from alternative courses of action. Fifth, the price effects of development programs, probable inflationary pressures, and the effects on the balance of payments and the capacity to import require analysis. These are major elements which one might expect to find in a good economic development analysis; the list could be extended. In the remainder of this paper it is argued that the mission reports have covered these points inadequately, not at all, or ambiguously, with the result that the reports are unsatisfactory as economic analyses and unsuitable as guides to development programs. Before proceeding to the substantive argument, however, one qualification must be noted. These reports were prepared at different times, by different groups of people, for different countries. They do not all share the same faults or the same virtues. ensuing discussion should make it amply clear that the above criticisms do not apply in toto to all the reports, nor to any one report in particular. * This is a condensation of a report titled The Failures of the World Bank Missions, RAND Corporation, P-I4II, June 24, I958. I am indebted to my research assistant Mrs. Marjorie Hald for her help in surveying the reports. Dr. H. J. Barnett and Dr. Charles Wolf read the original manuscript and made many helpful comments. 'In chronological order the reports on these countries are: Basis of a Development Program for Colombia (I950); Economic Development of Guatemala (I95I); Economy of Turkey (I95I); Report on Cuba (I95I); Surinam: Recommendations for a Ten Year Development Program (I952); Economic Development of Jamaica (I952); Economic Development of Iraq (I952); Economic Development of Ceylon (I953); Economic Development of British Guiana (I953); Economic Development of Nicaragua (I953) ; Economic Development of Mexico (I953); Economic Development of Malaya (I955); Economic Development of Syria (I955); Economic Development of Nigeria (I955); Economic Development of Jordan (I957). Reports on British Honduras, Uruguay, and Somaliland have been issued in mimeograph form, but they are specialized and are not considered here. In June I957, a mission was sent to Thailand; although somewhat different in intent from previous missions, it will issue a report at some time. A summary of some of these reports appears in J. Spengler, IBRD Mission Economic Growth Theory, American Economic Review, XLIV (May I954), 583-99. Hereafter in this paper the reports will be cited by the country name.

Abstract We provide evidence that equity investors are slow to process information about how current oil price changes affect future earnings announcements. Stock prices respond to lagged quarterly oil price changes when firms start announcing earnings in the next quarter. A cross-sectional equity trading strategy that exploits this predictability yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.50. Our oil-response forecast strategy earns especially high returns after large absolute oil price changes, in recessions or bear markets, and during peak earnings season. The predictability we document is consistent with limited attention, is not driven by risk factor exposure, and survives several robustness tests. (JEL G10, G11, G14, G40, Q41)

[Miller and Modigliani (1961) show that in perfect and complete financial markets a firm's value is unaffected by its dividend policy. Much of the more recent research has demonstrated that dividend policy becomes important in the presence of taxation, asymmetric information, incomplete contracts, institutional constraints, and transaction costs. By examining the effects of dividend policies on 475 British firms existing between 1895 and 1905, and consequently operating in an environment of very low taxation with an absence of institutional constraints, we find strong support for asymmetric information theories of dividend policy, and little support for agency models.]

This paper demonstrates that the behavior of the conventional Phelps-Taylor model of overlapping wage contracts stands in stark contrast with important features of U. S. macro data for inflation and output. In particular, the Phelps-Taylor specification implies far too little inflation persistence. We present a new contracting model, in which agents are concerned with relative real wages, that is data-consistent. In a specification that nests both models, we resoundingly reject the conventional contracting model, but cannot reject the new contracting model.

Abstract Frequently, the decision to replace or not to replace a plant asset is handled as a separate problem and is not included as a part of the general capital investment problem. This separation has probably resulted in part from the attention given to replacement decisions in engineering economy studies. Engineering studies are made to determine which units of equipment can give the best service at the lowest possible costs. Equipment in operation is in constant competition with new and improved models as they become available on the market and at some point in the life of a piece of equipment replacement may bring about the desired performance at a minimum annual cost. The objective in many replacement studies is to time the replacements so that annual costs will be minimized. The replacement type of decision is also isolated from general capital investment planning because of a difference in point of view that may be attributable to a difference in the level of administrative control. In replacement studies the equipment cost, the future costs of operation and the future salvage values are carefully estimated and applied in an effort to hold costs to a minimum.

Abstract A graph similar in concept to the conventional profit-volume graph can be used in capital investment planning and can be especially useful in the analysis of relatively complex investment situations. The net discounted cash flow line for the most profitable investment candidate crosses the expected cost of capital line or zone at the highest point. In a large number of investment situations, this line will also cross the internal rate of return line at the highest discount rate and will be above all other discounted cash flow lines at all points. There are also investment situations in which the discounted cash flow lines for the various alternatives will cross. The line for the most profitable alternative does not necessarily lie to the right of the other lines when it crosses over the internal rate of return line. It will, however, be the highest line when it crosses the expected cost of capital line or zone. The line of limitation can be used to predict the cost within reasonable limits.

Reviews the book "Advanced Accounting, an Organisational Approach," by Norton M. Bedford, Kenneth W. Perry and Arthur R. Wyatt.

Reviews the book "Electronic Data Processing, an Introduction," by F.W. Martin.

Reviews the book "Management Accounting," by Robert N.Anthony.

Abstract This article focuses on experience in teaching electronic data processing without a computer. The objective specified in the three courses is lot to train computer operators or programmers. Rather, the courses are intended to give the students enough information so they are able to evaluate intelligently the impact an significance of electronic computers on the type of work for which they are being trained. In the classroom it has been possible to teach the students the principles of flow charting and writing programs of instructions, but one does not get a sense of completeness unless it is possible to carry a problem all the way from definition to actual operation of the computer. In order to do this, arrangements were made with the Rich Electronic Computer Center at Georgia Institute of Technology to use their electronic computers for actual problem solving. Information coming back to the campus from former students indicates that even these introductory courses have had a significant effect on the direction and type of work being done by several of our graduates in business administration.