This study investigates whether market participants perceive pro forma earnings to be more informative and more persistent than GAAP operating income by analyzing a sample of 1,149 actual pro forma press releases. We find that pro forma announcers report frequent GAAP losses and are mostly concentrated in the service and high-tech industries. Our analyses of short-window abnormal returns and revisions in analysts’ one-quarter-ahead earnings forecasts indicate that pro forma earnings are more informative and more permanent than GAAP operating earnings. Our evidence suggests that market participants believe pro forma earnings are more representative of “core earnings” than GAAP operating income.

In certain auction, search, and related models, the boundary of the support of the observed data depends on some of the parameters of interest. For such nonregular models, standard asymptotic distribution theory does not apply. Previous work has focused on characterizing the nonstandard limiting distributions of particular estimators in these models. In contrast, we study the problem of constructing efficient point estimators. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator is generally inefficient, but that the Bayes estimator is efficient according to the local asymptotic minmax criterion for conventional loss functions. We provide intuition for this result using Le Cam's limits of experiments framework. Copyright The Econometric Society 2003.

We examine the effect of financial advisor reputation on wealth gains in corporate takeovers. In view of the adversarial nature of a takeover, we construct a measure of the relative reputation of the advisor. We document that the absolute wealth gain as well as the share of the total takeover wealth gain accruing to the bidder (target) increases (decreases) as the reputation of the bidder's advisor increases relative to that of the target. We also find that the total wealth created in the takeover is positively related to the reputation of bidder and target advisors. While bidder advisor reputation is positively related to the probability of bid success in our sample, we also present some evidence to suggest that bidders with better advisors are more likely to withdraw from potentially value-destroying takeovers.

By the end of January 2001, all NYSE stocks had converted their price quotations from 1/8s and 1/16s to decimals. This study examines the effect of this change in price quotations on ex‐dividend day activity. We find that abnormal ex‐dividend day returns increase in the 1/16 and decimal pricing eras, relative to the 1/8 era, which is inconsistent with microstructure explanations of ex‐day price movements. We also find that abnormal returns increase in conjunction with a May 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate, as they should if relative taxation of dividends and capital gains affects ex‐day pricing.

Historically, the average return on S&P stocks has far exceeded the average return on short-term U.S. government debt. Rajnish Mehra and Prescott (1985), for example, found that the average difference was 6.2 percent per year in the 1889–1978 period. They tried to account for this difference by assuming it is a premium for bearing nondiversi � able aggregate risk but found that risk accounted for only a tiny fraction of the difference. They concluded that there is an “equity premium puzzle.” Here, we reexamine this puzzle, taking into account some factors ignored by Mehra and Prescott (taxes, regulatory constraints, and diversi� cation costs) and focusing on long-term

We apply an understanding of what computers do to study how computerization alters job skill demands. We argue that computer capital (1) substitutes for workers in performing cognitive and manual tasks that can be accomplished by following explicit rules; and (2) complements workers in performing nonroutine problem-solving and complex communications tasks. Provided that these tasks are imperfect substitutes, our model implies measurable changes in the composition of job tasks, which we explore using representative data on task input for 1960 to 1998. We find that within industries, occupations, and education groups, computerization is associated with reduced labor input of routine manual and routine cognitive tasks and increased labor input of nonroutine cognitive tasks. Translating task shifts into education demand, the model can explain 60 percent of the estimated relative demand shift favoring college labor during 1970 to 1998. Task changes within nominally identical occupations account for almost half of this impact.

Payoffs from Panels in Low-Income Countries: Economic Development and Economic Mobility by Mark R. Rosenzweig. Published in volume 93, issue 2, pages 112-117 of American Economic Review, May 2003

Although forests have diminished globally over the past 400 years, forest cover has increased in some areas, including India in the last two decades. Aggregate time-series evidence on forest growth rates and income growth across countries and within India and a newly assembled data set that combines national household survey data, census data, and satellite images of land use in rural India at the village level over a 29-year period are used to explore the hypothesis that increases in the demand for forest products associated with income and population growth lead to forest growth. The evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, which also shows that neither the expansion of agricultural productivity nor rising wages in India increased local forest cover.

We empirically examine standard agency predictions about how performance measures are optimally weighted to provide CEO incentives. Consistent with prior empirical research, we document that the relative weight on price and non-price performance measures in CEO cash pay is a decreasing function of the relative variances. Agency theory speaks to the weights in total compensation (annual total pay and changes in the CEO's equity portfolio value), however, and we document that very little of CEOs' total incentives come from cash pay. We also document that variation in the relative weight on price and non-price performance measures in CEO total compensation is an increasing function of the relative variances. The conflicting results using total compensation indicate that existing findings on cash pay cannot be interpreted as evidence supporting standard agency predictions. Based on our results, we suggest approaches for future research on performance measure use in CEO total compensation.

An event study demonstrates that disclosures of changes in deferred tax valuation allowances (VA) provide information beyond contemporaneous earnings reports. Prior research shows that, in setting VA, managers consider the extent that taxable income is available from various sources for the realization of deferred tax assets (DTA). Our evidence supports a characterization where investors use VA disclosures to infer management's expectations about DTA, its realizability, and future taxable income available for realization. These findings are more generally relevant for assessing the consequences of reporting standards that require or permit management judgment, especially about future outcomes. In particular, they support the view that discretion can be a vehicle for management to communicate expectations to the benefit of investors.