Evaluates alternative accrual-based models for detecting earnings management. Comparison of the specification and power of commonly used test statistics; Application of the models to a random sample of firm-years; Importance of controlling for financial performance when investigating earnings management stimuli that are correlated with financial performance.

Distinguishing between recurring and nonrecurring components of earnings is a critical task in financial analysis and valuation. Academics and quantitative investors often rely on measures of recurring and nonrecurring components derived from standardized financial databases. We use unobserved components modeling and the Kalman smoother to obtain efficient ex-post estimates of the recurring and nonrecurring components of annual earnings. We then show that popular measures are significantly misspecified and that investors appear to anticipate a significant portion of the misspecification. Finally, we identify certain misclassified items that drive misspecification and provide algorithms to improve their ex-ante classification.

We show that accruals consist of at least two distinct underlying processes, one with positive serial correlation and the other with negative serial correlation. We also find that the accrual reversals characterizing the negatively serially correlated process are predominantly good accruals that correctly anticipate fluctuations in working capital. Accrual estimation error is the least persistent component of earnings, while accruals relating to firm growth are less persistent than cash flows. Finally, the mispricing of accruals appears to be driven by a combination of accrual estimation error and firm growth.

We develop a comprehensive and parsimonious measure of corporate financing activities and document a negative relation between this measure and both future stock returns and future profitability. The economic and statistical significance of our results is stronger than in previous research focusing on individual categories of corporate financing activities. To discriminate between risk versus misvaluation as explanations for this relation, we analyze the association between our measure of external financing and sell-side analysts’ forecasts. Consistent with the misvaluation explanation, our measure of external financing is positively related to overoptimism in analysts’ forecasts.

We identify a setting in which firms are required to disclose discounted cash flow (DCF) estimates relating to the value of their primary assets. ASC 932 (formerly SFAS No. 69) has mandated DCF disclosures for proved oil and gas reserves since 1982, and these reserves constitute the primary assets of oil and gas royalty trusts. For a hand-collected sample of oil and gas royalty trusts, we find that (1) the mandatory DCF disclosures are incrementally value-relevant over historical cost accounting variables, (2) investors misprice royalty trust units because they underweight the disclosed DCF estimates when forecasting future distributions, and (3) media articles bringing attention to discrepancies between price and the disclosed DCF estimates are significant stock price catalysts. While our evidence indicates that mandatory DCF disclosures can be incrementally useful for security valuation, it also indicates that investors may overlook such information, potentially due to lack of attention and accounting expertise. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources indicated in the text.

Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component. We decompose the cash component into: (1) the change in the cash balance, (2) issuances/distributions to debt, and (3) issuances/distributions to equity. We find that the higher persistence of the cash component is entirely due to the subcomponent related to equity. The other subcomponents have persistence levels almost identical to accruals. We investigate whether investors understand the implications of the differential persistence of the three subcomponents. Our results suggest that investors correctly price debt and equity issuances/distributions but misprice the change in the cash balance in a similar manner to accruals. Our tests enable us to empirically distinguish the “accrual” and “external financing” anomalies with results implying that the accrual anomaly subsumes the external financing anomaly. Our results also suggest that naive fixation on earnings is unlikely to be a complete explanation for the accrual anomaly. Our findings are more consistent with investors misunderstanding diminishing returns to new investments.

Existing research indicates that firms with high accruals are more likely to experience future earnings problems, but that investors' expectations, as reflected in stock prices, do not appear to anticipate these problems. In this paper, we directly examine the published opinions of two types of professional investor intermediaries to see if they provide investors with information concerning the future earnings problems experienced by firms with high accruals. First, we examine the earnings forecasts of sell‐side analysts. We show that analysts' earnings forecasts do not incorporate the predictable future earnings declines associated with high accruals. Second, we examine the behavior of independent auditors. We find no evidence that auditors signal the future earnings problems associated with high accruals through either their audit opinions or through auditor changes. Overall, our evidence indicates that analysts and auditors do not alert investors to the future earnings problems associated with high accruals, thus corroborating previous findings that investors do not appear to anticipate these problems.

This paper extends the work of Sloan (1996. The Accounting Review 71, 289) by linking accrual reliability to earnings persistence. We construct a model showing that less reliable accruals lead to lower earnings persistence. We then develop a comprehensive balance sheet categorization of accruals and rate each category according to the reliability of the underlying accruals. Empirical tests generally confirm that less reliable accruals lead to lower earnings persistence and that investors do not fully anticipate the lower earnings persistence, leading to significant security mispricing. These results suggest that there are significant costs associated with incorporating less reliable accrual information in financial statements.

We assess earning's lack of timeliness and value-irrelavant noise in earnings as explanations for the weak contemporaneous return-earnings assocation. Earnings lack timeliness because objectivity, verifiability, and conservatism conventions underlie the accounting measurement process. Noise in earnings is uncorrelated with returns in all periods. It likely gets introduced when estimates of future cash flows that differ from the market's estimates are included in earnings determined by accounting rules. Consistent with earning lacking timeliness, we find current and future earnings adjusted for expectational errors explain roughly 3–6 times as much of the annual return variation as current earnings alone.

Our examination of the cross‐section of expected returns reveals economically and statistically significant compensation (about 6 to 9 percent per annum) for beta risk when betas are estimated from time‐series regressions of annual portfolio returns on the annual return on the equally weighted market index. The relation between book‐to‐market equity and returns is weaker and less consistent than that in Fama and French (1992). We conjecture that past book‐to‐market results using COMPUS‐TAT data are affected by a selection bias and provide indirect evidence.