This paper presents a simple R&D-driven endogenous growth model to shed light on some puzzling economic trends. The model can account for why patent statistics have been roughly constant even though R&D employment has risen sharply over the last 30 years. The model also illuminates why steadily increasing R&D effort has not led to any upward trend in economic growth rates, as is predicted by earlier R&D-driven endogenous growth models with the "scale effect" property.

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with one- to three-quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond one quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables.

The United States has many banks that are small relative to large corporations and play a limited role in corporate governance, and a well developed stock market with an associated market for corporate control. In contrast, Japanese and German banks are fewer in number but larger in relative size and are said to play a central governance role. Neither country has an active market for corporate control. We extend the debate on the relative efficiency of bank- and stock market-centered capital markets by developing a further systematic difference between the two systems: the greater vitality of venture capital in stock market-centered systems. Understanding the link between the stock market and the venture capital market requires understanding the contractual arrangements between entrepreneurs and venture capital providers; especially, the importance of the opportunity to enter into an implicit contract over control, which gives a successful entrepreneur the option to reacquire control from the venture capitalist by using an initial public offering as the means by which the venture capitalist exits from a portfolio investment. We also extend the literature on venture capital contracting by offering an explanation for two central characteristics of the U.S. venture capital market: relatively rapid exit by venture capital providers from investments in portfolio companies; and the common practice of exit through an initial public offering.

Economists' productivity over their careers and as measured by publication in leading journals declines very sharply with age. There is no difference by age in the probability that an article submitted to a leading journal will be accepted. Rates of declining productivity are no greater among the very top publishers than among others, and the probability of acceptance is increasingly related to the author's quality rather than the author's age.

This paper provides a simple and practical approach to hedging bonds that are subject to credit risk. Three new hedge ratios are derived and tested and the roles of basis risk and diversification is investigated. Empirical tests reveal that basis risk is an important factor in hedging corporate bonds. These tests identify a need for new interest rate derivatives where the underlying asset is subject to credit risk.

The widespread Italian practice of multiple borrowing has been studied with respect to the continuity of bank lending and to the interest rates charged to individual borrowers. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the effects of multiple credit relationships over the fragility of the corporate borrowers. Two theses are competing: one asserts that multiple borrowing results in a desirable sharing of risks; the other, that the parcellization of loans substantially weakens the discipline exercised by the banks and makes corporate borrowers more fragile. Through multivariate techniques, we check whether the indicators describing the structure of lending relationships can help, along with balance-sheet variables, to separate healthy from failed firms. This exercise shows that multiple banking relationships are associated with a higher riskiness of the borrowers, even though the impact is moderate in comparison with the importance of real and financial variables derived from balance sheets.

Kristian R. Miltersen, Eduardo S. Schwartz, Pricing of Options on Commodity Futures with Stochastic Term Structures of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Mar., 1998), pp. 33-59

Governmental agencies, Cost allocation, External Competition, Efficiency