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Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(12), 2297-2321
Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.

Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003 118(3), 843-877
We develop an algorithm for detecting teacher cheating that combines information on unexpected test score fluctuations and suspicious patterns of answers for students in a classroom. Using data from the Chicago public schools, we estimate that serious cases of teacher or administrator cheating on standardized tests occur in a minimum of 4–5 percent of elementary school classrooms annually. The observed frequency of cheating appears to respond strongly to relatively minor changes in incentives. Our results highlight the fact that high-powered incentive systems, especially those with bright line rules, may induce unexpected behavioral distortions such as cheating. Statistical analysis, however, may provide a means of detecting illicit acts, despite the best attempts of perpetrators to keep them clandestine.

China share issue privatization: the extent of its success

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 70(2), 183-222
We evaluate the performance changes of 634 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on China's two exchanges upon share issuing privatisation (SIP) in the period 1994–1998. We find that SIP is effective in improving SOEs’ earnings ability, real sales, and workers’ productivity but is not successful in improving profit returns and leverage after privatisation. We also find state ownership having negative impacts on firm performance and legal-person ownership having positive impacts on firm performance after SIP, which suggests that legal persons behave differently from the state government. Surprisingly, foreign ownership does not show uniformly strong, positive impacts on firm performance.

Cross‐Border Listings and Price Discovery: Evidence from U.S.‐Listed Canadian Stocks

Journal of Finance 2003 58(2), 549-575
We examine the contribution of cross‐listings to price discovery for a sample of Canadian stocks listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and a U.S. exchange. We find that prices on the TSE and U.S. exchange are cointegrated and mutually adjusting. The U.S. share of price discovery ranges from 0.2 percent to 98.2 percent, with an average of 38.1 percent. The U.S. share is directly related to the U.S. share of trading and to the ratio of proportions of informative trades on the U.S. exchange and the TSE, and inversely related to the ratio of bid‐ask spreads.

On Measuring Competitive Viability and Monopoly Power in Cable: An Empirical Cost Approach

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(4), 962-970
This study provides empirical evidence concerning the economic feasibility of competition in the local market for video-delivery services. Using responses from the FCC's 1995 cost survey, we jointly estimate a translog cost function with factor share equations. To evaluate subadditivity, the fitted total cost of each firm is compared with the cost of two firms providing the same total output in eleven different market scenarios. Although costs were mildly superadditive, in the vast majority of cases they were lower when one firm provided the output. Average cost savings with respect to a monopoly were fairly small, ranging from 1.37% with a 10% market overlap to 5.05% with a complete overbuild. We also calculated marginal cost from the fitted total cost equation, and a price for cable services derived from the FCC survey data. Using these results and Rubinovitz's price elasticity of −1.46, we estimated that reregulation had a regulatory effectiveness of 0.3251 and held prices to 40.5% of the monopoly level.

Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(2), 377-393
This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (1994). This is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered. Results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial organization affects the benefits of agglomeration.

Assessing the Importance of Tiebout Sorting: Local Heterogeneity from 1850 to 1990

American Economic Review 2003 93(5), 1648-1677
This paper argues that long-run trends in geographic segregation are inconsistent with models where residential choice depends solely on local public goods (the Tiebout hypothesis). We develop an extension of the Tiebout model that predicts as mobility costs fall, the heterogeneity across communities of individual public good preferences and of public good provision must (weakly) increase. Given the secular decline in mobility costs, these predictions can be evaluated using historical data. We find decreasing heterogeneity in policies and proxies for preferences across (i) a sample of U.S. municipalities (1870–1990); (ii) all Boston-area municipalities (1870–1990); and (iii) all U.S. counties (1850–1990).

The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(12), 2273-2296
Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.

Underwriter Certification and Japanese Seasoned Equity Issues

Review of Financial Studies 2003 16(3), 949-982
In sharp contrast to results in the United States, the average stock price response to an announcement of a seasoned equity issue in Japan is positive. Offer prices in Japan, unlike the United States, are announced several days before the beginning of the subscription period and incorporate a substantial discount. We suggest that the positive announcement effects in Japan are consistent with the underwriter's certification of the issuing firm's value. We characterize the underwriter's risk as a put option and find a positive association between the underwriter's risk and the announcement returns, as well as other results consistent with underwriter certification.

Estimating Bargaining Power in the Market for Existing Homes

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003 85(1), 178-188
Although bargaining is common in markets for heterogeneous goods, it has largely been ignored in the hedonic literature. In a break from that tradition, we establish sufficient conditions that permit one to identify the effect of buyer and seller bargaining on hedonic models. Our model is estimated using a previously overlooked feature of the American Housing Survey that permits us to observe characteristics of both buyers and sellers. Results suggest that household wealth, gender, and other demographic traits influence bargaining power. In addition, variation in bargaining power arising from the presence of school-age children accounts for anomalous seasonal patterns reported in various widely cited indices of quality-adjusted house prices.