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Providing liquidity in an illiquid market: Dealer behavior in US corporate bonds

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 135(1), 16-40
We examine market making behavior of dealers for 55,988 corporate bonds, many of which trade infrequently. Dealers have a substantially higher propensity to offset trades within the same day rather than committing capital for longer periods for riskier and less actively traded bonds. Dealers’ holding periods do not decline with a bond's prior trading activity and in fact are lowest for some of the least active bonds. As a result, cross-sectional estimates of roundtrip trading costs do not increase as prior trading activity declines. Our results suggest that dealers endogenously adjust their behavior to mitigate inventory risk from trading in illiquid and higher risk securities, balancing search and inventory costs in equilibrium such that observed spreads can appear invariant to expected liquidity.

Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 62, 101607 open access
We find that U.S. corporations increase their cash holdings in response to higher economic policy uncertainty. The increase in cash holdings is not attributed to a reduction in firm investments. This increase is more pronounced for financially constrained firms or those with larger exposure to policy uncertainty. Holding more cash in the presence of policy uncertainty alleviates the negative impact of policy uncertainty on capital investment and firm innovation outputs. Our findings demonstrate that cash holdings represent an important channel in mitigating the negative effect of policy uncertainty on firm real economic activities.

Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(2), 297-319
We revisit Feldhütter and Schaefer (FS, 2018), who report evidence of a “credit spread puzzle” for high-yield but not investment-grade bonds. We show their results are reversed when their model is calibrated to market values of debt (as required by theory) rather than book values. We then demonstrate that using credit spreads rather than historical default rates to identify the default boundary provides the statistical power necessary to reject their assumption that firm dynamics follow geometric Brownian motion. A large market price of jump risk is required to match historical default rates, which generates a credit spread puzzle for investment-grade but not high-yield bonds.

Improving Auditors' Consideration of Evidence Contradicting Management's Estimate Assumptions

Contemporary Accounting Research 2020 37(2), 696-716
ABSTRACT Auditors have difficulty evaluating the assumptions underlying management's estimates. One source of these problems is that auditors appear to dismiss evidence contradicting management's assumptions because their initial preference to support management's accounting biases their preliminary conclusions and, thus, their interpretation of evidence. We experimentally examine whether auditors with a balanced focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports and contradicts their preliminary conclusion) are less likely to dismiss evidence that contradicts management's assumptions than auditors with a supporting focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports their preliminary conclusion). We expect and find that, compared with auditors with a supporting focus, auditors with a balanced focus create documentation that is less dismissive of evidence contradicting management's estimate. Importantly, a balanced focus changes auditors' cognition and affects how auditors interpret contradicting evidence rather than merely increasing their documentation of this evidence. The effects of reduced dismissiveness persist to improve auditors' evaluations of a biased estimate and subsequent actions, improving audit quality in an important and difficult area.

Assessing Tax Risk: Practitioner Perspectives

Contemporary Accounting Research 2020 37(3), 1788-1827
ABSTRACT This study uses insights from tax practitioners and tax authorities to define and develop an estimate of ex ante tax risk that is independent of common tax outcomes studied in prior literature. Validation tests confirm that our tax risk measure (i) represents the predictable and unpredictable uncertainty inherent in the three sources of tax risk (i.e., economic risk, tax law uncertainty, and inaccurate information processing) and (ii) is a construct different from tax avoidance, tax uncertainty, and general business risk. Using our tax risk measure, we address two research questions of interest to academics and practitioners. First, we examine the association between tax risk and long‐run tax avoidance and find a negative association between tax risk and future long‐run cash effective tax rates (ETRs). Second, we consider the extent to which unrecognized tax benefits (UTBs) reflect tax risk, tax avoidance, or financial reporting incentives and demonstrate that our tax risk measure explains a substantial portion of UTBs, incremental and relative to measures of information risk, conditional conservatism, unconditional conservatism, and tax avoidance. Our study offers a measure of tax risk that, consistent with the Scholes‐Wolfson paradigm, reflects the tax risk inherent in all business activities, not just tax avoidance activities; has unique industry effects; and contributes to our understanding of the factors that affect tax planning decisions and result in variation in firms' ETRs. Our findings will help managers and tax practitioners focus on industry‐specific tax risk components, assess risk during tax planning initiatives, exercise caution when engaging in additional risk if ETRs are low, and adapt tax risk strategies to fit specific company needs. We enhance future tax research by improving the definition and measurement of tax risk.

Putting the pension back in 401(k) retirement plans: Optimal versus default deferred longevity income annuities

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 114, 105783 open access
The US Treasury recently permitted deferred longevity income annuities to be included in pension plan menus as a default payout solution, yet little research has investigated whether more people should convert some of the $18 trillion they hold in employer-based defined contribution plans into lifelong income streams. We investigate this innovation using a calibrated lifecycle consumption and portfolio choice model embodying realistic institutional considerations. Our welfare analysis shows that defaulting a modest portion of retirees’ 401(k) assets (over a threshold) is an attractive way to enhance retirement security, enhancing welfare by up to 20% of retiree plan accruals.

At the table but can not break through the glass ceiling:Board leadership positions elude diverse directors

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(3), 787-814
We explore the labor market effects of gender and race by examining board leadership appointments. Prior studies are often limited by observing only hired candidates, whereas the boardroom provides a controlled setting where both hired and unhired candidates are observable. Although diverse (female and minority) board representation has increased, diverse directors are significantly less likely to serve in leadership positions despite possessing stronger qualifications than nondiverse directors. While specialized skills such as prior leadership or finance experience increase the likelihood of appointment, that likelihood is reduced for diverse directors. Additional tests provide no evidence that diverse directors are less effective.

Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 138(3), 838-865
We find a significant positive relation between changes in policy uncertainty and changes in credit spreads. Macroeconomic conditions, including general uncertainty, do not explain this result, which also holds when we use instrumental variables to address endogeneity issues. The impact of policy uncertainty is greater for firms that operate in regulation-intensive industries, face high tax rates, or are dependent on government spending. It is also stronger for firms that engage in political activities or rely on external financing. We conclude that policy uncertainty has a significant effect on firms’ borrowing costs, with exposure to government policies representing an important channel.

Regulation by Shaming: Deterrence Effects of Publicizing Violations of Workplace Safety and Health Laws

American Economic Review 2020 110(6), 1866-1904 open access
Publicizing firms’ socially undesirable actions may enhance firms’ incentives to avoid such actions. In 2009, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) began issuing press releases about facilities that violated safety and health regulations. Using quasi-random variation arising from a cutoff rule OSHA followed, I find that publicizing a facility’s violations led other facilities to substantially improve their compliance and experience fewer occupational injuries. OSHA would need to conduct 210 additional inspections to achieve the same improvement in compliance as achieved with a single press release. Evidence suggests that employers improve compliance to avoid costly responses from workers. (JEL J28, J81, K32, L51, M54)

Shorting in Broad Daylight: Short Sales and Venue Choice

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(7), 2246-2269
Using a novel database on venue short sales and market design characteristics, we ask: Where do short sellers exploit their information advantage? Consistent with the prediction of Zhu (2014), we find that exchange short sales comprise a larger proportion of trading and are more informative about future prices than dark-pool short sales, particularly when there is greater competition among short sellers to trade and in the presence of short-lived information. When examining market design characteristics, we find that dark pools offering volume-weighted average price crossing attract more short sales, whereas those offering block trading attract fewer short sales.