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Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve Information Comparability?

The Accounting Review 2012 87(5), 1767-1789 open access
ABSTRACT This study examines whether the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in the European Union significantly improves information comparability in 17 European countries. We employ three proxies—the similarity of accounting functions that translate economic events into accounting data, the degree of information transfer, and the similarity of the information content of earnings and of the book value of equity—to measure information comparability. Our results suggest that mandatory IFRS adoption improves cross-country information comparability by making similar things look more alike without making different things look less different. Our results also suggest that both accounting convergence and higher quality information under IFRS are the likely drivers of the comparability improvement. In addition, we find some evidence that cross-country comparability improvement is affected by firms' institutional environment. Data Availability: Data are available from commercial providers (Worldscope, DataStream, and I/B/E/S).

Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors

Journal of Financial Economics 2012 104(3), 535-559 open access
We propose several econometric measures of connectedness based on principal-components analysis and Granger-causality networks, and apply them to the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, broker/dealers, and insurance companies. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, likely increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries through a complex and time-varying network of relationships. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power in out-of-sample tests. Our results show an asymmetry in the degree of connectedness among the four sectors, with banks playing a much more important role in transmitting shocks than other financial institutions.

Enjoying the Quiet Life under Deregulation? Evidence from Adjusted Lerner Indices for U.S. Banks

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 94(2), 462-480 open access
The quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents. We propose a simple adjustment to Lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis. For a large sample of U.S. commercial banks, we find that adjusted Lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional Lerner indices and trending upward over time. Instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies. However, Lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among U.S. banks.

The Value of a Statistical Life: Evidence from Panel Data

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 94(1), 74-87
We address long-standing concerns in the literature on compensating wage differentials: the econometric properties of the estimated value of statistical life (VSL) and the wide range of such estimates. We confront prominent econometric issues using panel data, a more accurate fatality risk measure, and systematic application of panel data estimators. Controlling for measurement error, endogeneity, latent individual heterogeneity possibly correlated with regressors, state dependence, and sample composition yields VSL estimates of $4 million to $10 million. The comparatively narrow range clarifies the cost-effectiveness of regulatory decisions. Most important econometrically is controlling for latent heterogeneity; less important is how one does it.

Management Forecast Accuracy and CEO Turnover

The Accounting Review 2012 87(6), 2095-2122
ABSTRACT We investigate whether management forecast accuracy provides a signal regarding CEOs' ability to anticipate and respond to future events by examining the relation between management forecast errors and CEO turnover. We find that the probability of CEO turnover is positively related to the magnitude of absolute forecast errors when firm performance is poor and that this positive relation holds for both positive and negative forecast errors. In addition, we find that the positive relation between CEO turnover and the absolute forecast errors is concentrated in the sample of less entrenched CEOs. Our findings indicate that boards of directors use management forecast accuracy as a signal of CEOs' managerial ability and that managers bear a cost for issuing inaccurate forecasts.

Privacy-Preserving Methods for Sharing Financial Risk Exposures

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 65-70 open access
The financial industry relies on trade secrecy to protect its business processes and methods, which can obscure critical financial risk exposures from regulators and the public. Using results from cryptography, we develop computationally tractable protocols for sharing and aggregating such risk exposures that protect the privacy of all parties involved, without the need for trusted third parties. Financial institutions can share aggregate statistics such as Herfindahl indexes, variances, and correlations without revealing proprietary data. Potential applications include: privacy-preserving real-time indexes of bank capital and leverage ratios; monitoring delegated portfolio investments; financial audits; and public indexes of proprietary trading strategies.

Using Online Video to Announce a Restatement: Influences on Investment Decisions and the Mediating Role of Trust

The Accounting Review 2012 87(2), 513-535 open access
ABSTRACT Press releases accompanying earnings restatements attempt to minimize negative reactions by explaining the reasons for the restatement. Although text-based press releases have been the norm for years, firms have recently begun using online video for such announcements. We examine the implications of doing so, and find that when a CEO accepts responsibility by making an internal attribution for a restatement, investors viewing the announcement online via video recommend larger investments in the firm than do investors viewing the announcement online via text. In contrast, when the CEO denies responsibility by making an external attribution for the restatement, investors viewing the announcement online via video recommend smaller investments in the firm than do investors viewing the announcement online via text. Our results also reveal that investor trust mediates the effect of disclosure venue and attribution on investment recommendations. These findings are important given the economic significance and trust-damaging implications of restatements, as well as the increased use of online video to make important announcements. Data Availability: Contact the authors for data and video.

Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle

American Economic Review 2012 102(4), 1378-1413 open access
That the employment rate appears to respond to changes in trend growth is an enduring macroeconomic puzzle. This paper shows that, in the presence of a return to experience, a slowdown in productivity growth raises reservation wages, thereby lowering aggregate employment. The paper develops new evidence that shows this mechanism is important for explaining the growth-employment puzzle. The combined effects of changes in aggregate wage growth and returns to experience account for all the increase from 1968 to 2006 in nonemployment among low-skilled men and for approximately half the increase in nonemployment among all men. (JEL E24, J24, J31)

Contract Form, Wage Flexibility, and Employment

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 526-531
We begin with two uncontroversial hypotheses - firm productivity is expensive to measure and employment entails relationship-specific investments. These assumptions imply that firms would optimally choose fixed-wage contracts, and complement these with bonus pay when measuring employee performance is not too costly. These assumptions imply that under an optimal employment contract hours of work is less responsive, while total compensation is more responsive to shocks under bonus-pay contracts compared to fixed wage contracts. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) where shocks are proxied using the local unemployment rate, we find strong support for these two implications.

Don't Believe the Hype: Local Media Slant, Local Advertising, and Firm Value

Journal of Finance 2012 67(2), 561-598
ABSTRACT When local media report news about local companies, they use fewer negative words compared to the same media reporting about nonlocal companies. We document that one reason for this positive slant is the firms' local media advertising expenditures. Abnormal positive local media slant strongly relates to firm equity values. The effect is stronger for small firms; firms held predominantly by individual investors; and firms with illiquid or highly volatile stock, low analyst following, or high dispersion of analyst forecasts. These findings show that news content varies systematically with the characteristics and conflicts of interest of the source.