I examine whether and how foreign bank branch participation in U.S. loan syndicates influences loan contract design. I predict that foreign bank branches’ dollar funding liquidity risk and information frictions increase renegotiation costs and affect loan contract design. I find that loan contracts with greater foreign bank branch participation include fewer flexibility-reducing covenants, such as capital expenditure and balance sheet covenants, that restrict borrowers from making positive net present value investments. I document similar results using matched sample and plausibly exogenous variation in foreign bank branch participation. Additionally, loan contracts with greater foreign bank branch participation are more likely to feature split control rights, which give banks in revolving lines of credit the exclusive right to renegotiate. In contrast, foreign bank branches are more likely to be included in covenant-lite term loans. Overall, I show that foreign bank branch participation affects U.S. syndicated loan contract design through renegotiation costs.

This paper studies the capital market consequences of managers establishing an individual forecasting style. Using a manager-firm matched panel dataset, I examine whether and when manager-specific credibility matters. If managers' forecasting styles affect their perceived credibility, then the stock price reaction to forecast news should increase with managers' prior forecasting accuracy. Consistent with this prediction, I find that the stock price reaction to management forecast news is stronger when information uncertainty is high and when the manager has a history of issuing more accurate forecasts, indicating that individual managers benefit from establishing a personal disclosure reputation.

Does speculative trade reduce mispricing and help create efficient markets or does it drive prices further from fundamentals? We analyze betting exchange trading on 9,562 UK horse races in 2013 and 2014 to find out. Crucially, as each race is run, the fundamental value of bets is unambiguously revealed. We find that the volume of trade is predictive of fundamentals, suggesting that speculative trade is on average conducive to market efficiency. However, much of this effect is concentrated in the in-running period during races when, even without trade, asset fundamentals would be revealed seconds later.

Relatively little is known about the empirical performance of infinite-activity Lévy jump models, especially with non-affine volatility dynamics. We use extensive empirical data sets to study how infinite-activity Variance Gamma and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) jumps with affine and non-affine volatility dynamics improve goodness of fit and option pricing performance. With Markov Chain Monte Carlo, different model specifications are estimated using the joint information of the S&P 500 index and the VIX. Our article provides clear evidence that a parsimonious non-affine model with NIG return jumps and a linear variance specification is particularly competitive, even during the recent crisis.

This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model in which economic growth is explained by the evolution of the division of labor. The relationships among the accumulation of human capital, the evolution of the division of labor, endogenous comparative advantage, trade dependence, the market structure, and economic growth are investigated.

Consistent with the empirical properties of the consumption data, I develop a model in which consumption and dividend growth follow regime-switching dynamics. I show that regime-shift risk is priced in the model. Regime-shift risk exhibits dominant influence on asset prices: It generates a high equity premium and also induces time-varying risk premiums. The model explains major business cycle-dependent asset market phenomena and, in particular, the stronger predictability of stock returns during recessions.

This paper exploits an influx of Chinese students to U.S. universities from 2000 through 2018 to study synergies between banks’ deposit-taking and lending activities. Banks that are more recognizable by Chinese students experience higher deposit inflows and increase their local credit supply. This credit supply expansion only occurs in information-sensitive credit markets: small business loans and second lien mortgages. Such increase concentrates in nontradable sectors and is more pronounced at locations where managers have more autonomy. The results indicate that deposits from local consumers convey private information about the local credit market, which helps banks in information-sensitive lending.

This paper examines the effects of different types of private debt on firm cash balances, equity risk, and investment. Firms with more bank loans have more cash and investment, but lower equity risk. Firms with more nonbank private debt have more cash, lower equity risk, and less investment. Firms with more unused credit lines have less cash and lower equity risk, but greater investment. Results suggest that financial intermediaries' monitoring intensity increases with loan size. Depending on type, private debt mitigates information asymmetry or asset substitution, or both. Deposit relations associated with bank borrowing also contribute to banks' information advantage.