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Direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters on banks: A spatial framework
We examine the direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters on deposit rates of U.S. bank branches from 2008 to 2017. We capture the indirect impact by the spatial spillover effects of disasters, from branches directly exposed to such disasters to neighboring branches. We theoretically motivate our spatial framework by local competition for deposits among branches and provide empirical evidence consistent with this model. We find that indirect effects contribute to at least two-thirds of the total impact for deposit rate-setting branches. Rate-setting branches in affected counties, on average, raise their deposit rates on 12-month CDs by 1.5 basis points directly due to the disaster shock. However, there is an additional indirect increase of 2.7 – 4.3 basis points for all rate-setting branches, including those in adjacent but unaffected counties, due to the local geographical competition for deposits. We also confirm that the spillover effect occurs among branches across counties via an overlooked social connectedness. Moreover, and importantly, online and one-county banks are more likely to rely on the information channel embedded in the social connectedness effect in response to natural disasters. Branches in less concentrated local markets also respond more to the nature disaster and rate adjustments of neighboring branches.
Does ambiguity matter for corporate debt financing? Theory and evidence
Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation
This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.
The Role of the Media in the Internet IPO Bubble
We read all news items that came out between 1996 and 2000 on 458 Internet initial public offerings (IPOs) and a matching sample of 458 non-Internet IPOs (a total of 171,488 news items) and classify each news item as good news, neutral news, or bad news. We first document that the media were more positive for Internet IPOs in the period of the dramatic rise in share prices and more negative for Internet IPOs in the period of the dramatic fall in share prices. We then document that media hype is unable to explain the Internet bubble: A 1,646% difference exists in returns between Internet stocks and non-Internet stocks from January 1, 1997, through March 24, 2000 (the market peak), and the media can explain only 2.9% of that.
How stable are corporate capital structures? International evidence
Using a large sample of firms from 43 markets, we find significant time-series variation in firms’ leverage ratios around the world. Industry median leverage ratios and aggregate leverage ratios also change substantially over time. Relative to actual leverage ratios, target leverage ratios estimated from the time-varying target models are much more stable. Variance decomposition shows that leverage instability is largely driven by deviations from the target. A number of firm and market characteristics are related to capital structure instability. We also find evidence consistent with firms using financing activities to adjust their leverage ratios towards the target in global markets.
The dark side of cross-listing: A new perspective from China
The overwhelming majority of Chinese firms that list their stock both in China and abroad had gone public, and listed, abroad first. We find that when companies listed abroad return to China to issue stock and list, they experience poorer post-issuance stock and operating performance in comparison to purely domestic issuers. Also, they raise more funds relative to their sales, leave less money on the table for investors, and incur lower direct flotation costs. Among returning firms, those which raise higher proceeds relative to sales experience poorer long-run stock performance and lower Tobin’s q post issuance. Our results offer a new perspective on cross-listing, which we term ‘dressing-up-for-premium’. Firms from less-developed markets take advantage of the enhanced visibility and prestige associated with the foreign listing to issue shares domestically at inflated prices and favorable terms, and to raise greater proceeds than they can efficiently use.
Torpedo Your Competition: Strategic Reporting and Peer Firm IPO
A firm’s initial public offering (IPO) generates negative externalities for industry competitors. To mitigate this threat, incumbent firms manage their earnings downward, issue more negative management forecasts, and use a more negative disclosure tone when their industry peers file for an IPO. Negative accruals reverse when the threat subsides. Incumbents manage earnings more aggressively when costs are small and benefits are large, and when they follow negative disclosures of industry leading incumbents. Such strategic disclosure lowers incumbent firm valuation multiples and associates with more negative IPO firm media sentiment. IPO firms obtain lower offer prices, raise less capital, and are more likely to withdraw from the offering. They also invest less, hoard more cash, and experience lower profitability post-IPO, whereas incumbents experience higher profitability and market share growth. Our results highlight the role of strategic reporting on product market competition and identify a new cost of going public.
Do Firms Mimic Industry Leaders’ Accounting? Evidence from Financial Statement Comparability
Following management theory on organizational legitimacy, we predict that managers mimic the accounting of industry-leading companies to gain legitimacy. Such demand for legitimacy is expected to be greater for new managers because stakeholders are more uncertain about the managers’ ability. Using a sample of CEO turnovers, we find that a firm increases financial statement comparability with industry leaders after the new CEO assumes office. This relation is stronger when (1) new managers lack executive experience at larger firms, are younger, or belong to an underrepresented group (i.e., are female or nonwhite); (2) networks that facilitate imitation are more intense, such as when firms and peers are located in the same metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and when they share auditors or blockholders; and (3) firms’ operating environments are more volatile. These findings support the idea that CEOs’ demand for legitimacy leads to more comparable accounting. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.
Information Dissemination through Embedded Financial Analysts: Evidence from China
When emerging market firms disclose relationship-based transactions, they face a trade-off in which greater transparency may help lower their cost of capital at the cost of revealing proprietary information. We find that firms overcome this challenge by relying on analysts within their private networks (i.e., connected analysts) who, through repeated interaction with the firm, can better verify relationship-based transactions. Using Chinese firms, we show that firms with more connected analysts have more accurate consensus forecasts and lower forecast dispersion. When a connected analyst departs and stops covering a firm, the accuracy and informativeness of the unconnected analysts' forecasts decrease, suggesting that information spills over from the connected analyst to analysts outside the network. We find a potential mechanism for this information spillover: communication through common institutional clients, which suggests that embedded financial analysts—those sharing close connections with firms and analysts—serve as a channel for disseminating proprietary, hard-to-verify information. JEL Classifications: G14; G15; M40; N25. Data Availability: Data are available from sources identified in the text.