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Earnings Management Strategies and the Trade-Off between Tax Benefits and Detection Risk: To Conform or Not to Conform?

The Accounting Review 2009 84(1), 63-97
Prior research has separately examined pretax earnings management activities that have current taxable income consequences (book-tax “conforming earnings management”) and those that do not have current taxable income consequences (book-tax “nonconforming earnings management”). Our study documents the prevalence of, and then investigates the firm-specific characteristics that impact the choice between, these earnings management strategies. We utilize a sample of firms that restated their earnings downward due to accounting irregularities and thus can be presumed to have managed earnings upward. We find that nonconforming earnings management is more prevalent and that firms trade off the net present value of tax benefits against the net expected detection costs associated with nonconforming earnings management. In particular, firms having NOL carryforwards, using a high-quality auditor, or engaging in the most egregious misstatements rely less on nonconforming earnings management strategies. We also find that book-tax differences are useful in predicting restatements.

THE TEACHERS' CLINIC.

The Accounting Review 1954 29(3), 494-508
The article presents devices and techniques developed by the member of accounting profession for the presentation of the knotty aspects of accounting. The first method presented focuses on the accounting problems related to business income and the cash basis. Money profits are basic to the management of a business. The cash basis, where properly applied, involves considerably more than receipts and disbursements. Accounting on the cash basis means that net income is determined by including income and gains actually or constructively received and deducting those expenses actually or constructively paid, losses sustained, and allowable depreciation or amortization for the period. Cash includes not only money but also commercial paper redeemable in money on demand such as money orders, bank drafts or checks. It does not include notes or similar promises to pay money at some future time. The general rule is that a bank check received constitutes an actual or conditional receipt, even though the holder refrains from depositing or cashing the check until a later date. Transactions near the end of the year call for decision as to the exact time receipt occurs.

ASSOCIATION REPORTS FOR THE YEAR 1943.

The Accounting Review 1944 19(2), 221-229
The article presents information about a Committee appointed by the American Accounting Association. The work of the Committee on Monographs during the year, 1943, has been devoted primarily to two projects. The first consisted of preparing a compilation of the releases and pronouncements on accounting matters issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Committee on Accounting Procedure and the Committee on Auditing Procedure of the American Institute of Accountants. The second project was the preparation of a monograph on the principles of consolidated statements. This monograph was written by Dr. Maurice Moonitz of Stanford University, and was reviewed and approved for publication by the Committee. The Committee has also given some attention to two or three other projects and manuscripts. The president of the Committee said that the educational institutions and programs are all being subjected to special stresses and difficult restrictions during the war. The programs of most colleges and universities in fields customarily followed by men have had to be materially curtailed or completely eliminated.

Accounting for distress in bank mergers

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(10), 3200-3217
Most bank merger studies do not control for hidden bailouts, which may lead to biased results. In this study we employ a unique data set of approximately 1000 mergers to analyze the determinants of bank mergers. We use undisclosed information on banks’ regulatory intervention history to distinguish between distressed and non-distressed mergers. Among merging banks, we find that improving financial profiles lower the likelihood of distressed mergers more than the likelihood of non-distressed mergers. The likelihood to acquire a bank is also reduced but less than the probability to be acquired. Both distressed and non-distressed mergers have worse CAMEL profiles than non-merging banks. Hence, non-distressed mergers may be motivated by the desire to forestall serious future financial distress and prevent regulatory intervention.

The Demand for Energy-Using Assets among the World's Rising Middle Classes

American Economic Review 2016 106(6), 1366-1401
We study household decisions to acquire energy-using assets in the presence of rising incomes. We develop a theoretical framework to characterize the effect of income growth on asset purchases when consumers face credit constraints. We use large and plausibly exogenous shocks to household income generated by the conditional-cash-transfer program in Mexico, Oportunidades, to show that asset acquisition is nonlinear, depends, as predicted in the presence of credit constraints, on the pace of income growth, and both effects are economically large among beneficiaries. Our results may help explain important worldwide trends in the relationship between energy use and income growth.

Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?

American Economic Review 2016 106(5), 565-569
The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output; the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, stimulating financial intermediation and, potentially, output as well. We explore the implications, and find support for the key predictions in the data.

The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities

American Economic Review 2011 101(5), 2205-2225
The distribution of city populations has attracted much attention, in part because it constrains models of local growth. However, there is no consensus on the distribution below the very upper tail, because available data need to rely on “legal” rather than “economic” definitions for medium and small cities. To remedy this difficulty, we construct cities “from the bottom up” by clustering populated areas obtained from high-resolution data. We find that Zipf 's law for population holds for cities as small as 5,000 inhabitants in Great Britain and 12,000 inhabitants in the US. We also find a Zipf 's law for areas. JEL: R11, R12, R23

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale

American Economic Review 1988
Was the Depression forecastable? After the crash, how long should it have taken contempo rary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harv ard Economic Service and Yale's Irving Fisher during 1929 and the ear ly 1930s. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters, tog ether with modern historical data, are subjected to statistical analy sis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. Both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic. Yet, nothing in the data suggests that the optimism w as unwarranted.

Competition Enforcement and Accounting for Intangible Capital

Journal of Finance 2026 81(3), 1217-1263 open access
Antitrust laws mandate review of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) that exceed an asset size threshold based on accounting standards that exclude most intangible capital. We show that this exclusion leads to thousands of intangible‐intensive M&As being nonreportable. Acquirers in nonreportable deals achieve higher equity values and price markups, especially when consolidating product markets. Furthermore, nonreportable pharmaceutical deals are three times more likely to involve overlapping drug projects, which are subsequently 40% more likely to be terminated. Our results suggest that the growth of intangible assets may exacerbate market power through nonreportable consolidation of the sectors most concerning for consumers.

On the Magnification of Small Biases in Hiring

Journal of Finance 2024 79(5), 3623-3673
We analyze a setting in which a board must hire a chief executive officer (CEO) after exerting effort to learn about the quality of each candidate. Optimal effort is asymmetric, implying asymmetric likelihoods of each candidate being chosen. If the board has an infinitesimal bias in favor of one candidate, it allocates effort to maximize the likelihood of that candidate being chosen. Even when the board's prior is that its preferred candidate is inferior, she may still be chosen most often. A glass ceiling can also arise whereby the tendency to hire favored candidates increases as the importance of the position increases.