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Hardnose the Dictator

American Economic Review 2002 92(4), 1218-1221
Lab experiments have gone to extremes to isolate and repress other-regarding behavior in extensive-form bargaining games, with limited success. Consider, for example, Elizabeth Hoffman et al.’s (1996; hereafter HMS) Anonymous Dictator game. This game controls self-interested strategic behavior by giving a person complete control over the distribution of wealth, and complete anonymity from all others including the experimenter. While theory predicts people with complete control and complete anonymity will offer up nothing to others, in fact they still share the wealth in about 40 percent of the observed bargains. Such other-regarding choice is another example in which individual behavior differs from that predicted by subgame perfection, and supports the call for a new “behavioral game theory” (Colin F. Camerer, 1997). Herein we extend the work of HMS to reveal a setting in which 95 percent of dictators follow game-theoretic predictions. In contrast to previous studies, our design has people bargain over earned wealth rather than unearned wealth granted by the experimenter. We argue that just as rewards must be salient (Kyung Hwan Baik et al., 1999), the assets in a bargain must be legitimate to produce rational behavior. Our results support this conjecture. Dictators bargaining over earned wealth were more selfinterested than observed in previous studies; and when they had complete anonymity, selfless behavior is essentially eliminated.

The Macroeconomics of Dr. Strangelove

American Economic Review 1993
This paper examines the weapons-accumulation decisions of two adversarial countries in the context of a deterrence/conflict initiation game embedded in an overlapping-generations model. The demographic structure permits analysis of both within- and between-country intergenerational externalities caused by past weapons-accumulation decisions, as well as of intragenerational externalities from the adversary's current weap ons accumulation. Zero accumulation is a possible equilibrium with both noncooperative and cooperative behavior. Countries may also accumula te weapons to the point where conflict initiation never occurs. Pareto-improving policies are generally available but international cooperation need not be Pareto-improving.

Vacancy Chains

Journal of Political Economy 2025 133(11), 3550-3604 open access
Replacement hiring plays a central role in establishment dynamics. US establishments frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years, despite facing substantial gross turnover. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key implication is the emergence of vacancy chains. Quantitatively, the model reconciles the incidence of replacement hiring with large cross-establishment dispersion in labor productivity and largely replicates the volatility and persistence of job creation and unemployment.

New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Journal of Political Economy 2004 112(4), 779-816
There are two striking aspects of the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States: the recovery was very weak, and real wages in several sectors rose significantly above trend. These data contrast sharply with neoclassical theory, which predicts a strong recovery with low real wages. We evaluate the contribution to the persistence of the Depression of New Deal cartelization policies designed to limit competition and increase labor bargaining power. We develop a model of the bargaining process between labor and firms that occurred with these policies and embed that model within a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that New Deal cartelization policies are an important factor in accounting for the failure of the economy to recover back to trend.

Marginal Deterrence in Enforcement of Law

Journal of Political Economy 1994 102(5), 1039-1066
We characterize optimal enforcement in a setting in which individuals can select among various levels of some activity, all of which are monitored at the same rate but may be prosecuted and punished at varying rates. For less harmful acts, marginal expected penalties ought to fall short of marginal harms caused. Indeed, some range of very minor acts should be legalized. For more harmful acts, whether marginal expected penalties should fall short of, or exceed, marginal harms depends on the balance between monitoring and prosecution/punishment costs. We also explore how the optimal enforcement policy varies with changes in these costs.

In Search of Predatory Pricing

Journal of Political Economy 1985 93(2), 320-345
Focuses on the reproduction of predatory pricing in laboratory environment. Definition on predatory pricing; Methods used to construct experimental design; Effect of predation on price increase and efficiency. Focuses on the reproduction of predatorypricing in laboratory environment. Definition on predatorypricing; Methods used to construct experimental design; Effect of predation on price increase and efficiency.

Tariffs, Technology Transfer, and Welfare

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(6), 1142-1165
It is found that the welfare gain per unit of revenue raised is maximized for an export tariff on technology transfer, followed by an import tariff on goods, with an export tariff on goods the poorest policy alternative. These results are derived within a monopolistic competition model, where the production of any good requires some initial research and development (R&D), and technology transfer occurs when R&D is done in one country for production of goods in the other. An intuitive explanation is presented, based on the public-good nature of R&D and also the elasticity of demand for technologies from firms.

A Note on Some Evidence on the Easterlin Hypothesis

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(5), 953-958
According to the Easterlin hypothesis, the positive relationship between income and fertility is dependent on relative income. The hypothesis presumes that aspirations are significantly determined by family background. If income is high relative to aspirations, individuals will tend to have more children. The definition of variables as sibling differences controls family background and yields a measure of relative income. Analyzing the Kalamazoo Brothers sample in this fashion produces no evidence in support of the hypothesis.

Mandatory Information Exchange, Cross-Border Income Shifting, and the Physical Flow of Tangible Goods

The Accounting Review 2026 101(4), 169-201 open access
We examine whether mandatory tax information exchange agreements between governments have real effects on firms’ physical trade in tangible goods. We posit that some of the physical trade in tangible goods flowing through low-tax jurisdictions is intended to facilitate income shifting. As such, shocks to enforcement via mandatory information exchange agreements could cause firms to change the physical flow of goods. Using firm-level shipping container data, we find that adoption of bilateral tax information exchange agreements (TIEAs) between the U.S. and foreign jurisdictions is associated with significant decreases in the volume of imports by U.S. firms from those jurisdictions. We also find reallocation effects: U.S. firms increase imports from jurisdictions in the same subregion as the treated jurisdiction, resulting in minimal overall change in total imports. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to document a connection among enforcement-related tax disclosure, income shifting, and physical trade flows. Data Availability: The data used in this study are available from the sources cited in the paper.

Leading by Example in Socially Driven Organizations: The Effect of Transparent Leader Compensation Contracts on Following

The Accounting Review 2022 97(3), 373-393
Leading by example is one of the most powerful methods to encourage individuals to work toward a common objective. Despite the importance of leadership, little is known about how the effectiveness of leading by example depends on institutional features, such as the transparency and design of leaders' compensation contracts. We conduct two experiments to study this interplay between leadership and contracting in organizations with social missions (i.e., socially driven organizations). We find that under non-transparent contracts, leader contributions to the social objective positively influence follower contributions, reflecting effective leading by example. More importantly, under transparent contracts, the positive effect of leader contributions on follower contributions is diminished by an increase in the intensity of variable compensation and/or the amount of fixed compensation in the leader's contract. Our study informs the debate on pay transparency and demonstrates that organizations need to carefully consider the effects of contract design on leadership effectiveness. Data Availability: Contact the authors.