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Patterns of Hospital Use: An Analysis of Short-Run Variations

Journal of Political Economy 1971 79(1), 154-165
This study of monthly hospital use in thirty-five diagnoses indicated rational and predictable variations. Admissions in seven diagnostic categories increased in six decreased when monthly occupancy rates exceeded normally acceptable levels. Illnesses in the latter group contrasted with those of the former in a manner consistent with the hypothesis: they were types for which hospital admission might reasonably be considered postponable or discretionary. Patient stays for each group were, respectively, above and below the hospital average, suggesting that a rationing of admissions at high occupancy intensified utilization by inducing an increase in average stay.

Price Trends, Economic Growth, and the Canadian Balance of Trade: A Three-Country Model

Journal of Political Economy 1971 79(3), 596-613
The paper undertakes a theoretical analysis and empirical investigation of changes in the Canadian trade balance. The theoretical discussion takes the form of a three-country general equilibrium analysis. In the completed model, changes in the trade balance are the result of variations in real incomes, relative prices, and autonomous international capital flows. The empirical study makes use of a reduced form of the model--a multiple regression equation. The empirical results suggest that (a) a devaluation would lead to an improvement in the trade balance via the price effect; (b) economic expansion has resulted in a deterioration of the trade balance; and (c) long-term capital flows were, on the average, undereffected.

Banks' Demand for Excess Reserves

Journal of Political Economy 1971 79(4), 805-825
A bank's demand function for excess reserves is derived using inventory theory. In the model, banks hold excess reserves as a means of reducing the cost of meeting their reserve requirements in a world in which they are faced with random reserve flows and transaction costs. The resulting demand curve is kinked at very low interest rates (estimated to be between 0.3 and 0.5 percent for the Treasury bill rate). This kinked demand curve offers an explanation of the large accumulation of excess reserves during the 1930s that compares favorably with alternative hypotheses.

Costs and Benefits of Medical Research: A Case Study of Poliomyelitis

Journal of Political Economy 1971 79(3), 527-544 open access
The paper provides estimates of (1) research expenditures on poliomyelitis, (2) several forms of productivity benefits from applying the knowledge generated by the research, and (3) the costs of applying that knowledge. Internal rates of return are computed under a variety of assumptions, with results generally between 4 and 14 percent. The interrelatedness of research with procedures for applying the research findings is investigated; in the case of polio, the rate of return on research is found to be heavily influenced by the costs of application. Finally, a discussion is included of the likely allocative efficiency of private-market behavior when a collective-consumption good, such as research knowledge, requires the use of an individual-consumption good, such as a vaccination, for its application.