This study assesses the stock return performance of 131 firms emerging from Chapter 11. Using differing estimates of expected returns, we consistently find evidence of large, positive excess returns in 200 days of returns following emergence. We also examine the reaction of our sample firms' equity returns to their earnings announcements after emergence from Chapter 11. The positive and significant reactions suggest that our results are driven by the market's expectational errors, not mismeasurement of risk. The results provide an interesting contrast, but not a contradiction, to previous work that has documented poor operating performance for firms emerging from Chapter 11.

Edward I. Altman, Menachem Brenner, Information Effects and Stock Market Response to Signs of Firm Deterioration, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Mar., 1981), pp. 35-51

Edward I. Altman, Michel Margaine, Michel Schlosser, Pierre Vernimmen, Financial and Statistical Analysis for Commercial Loan Evaluation: A French Experience, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 2 (Mar., 1974), pp. 195-211

In this paper, we have revised and updated our earlier study in order to analyze the most recent (second) draft of the BIS's proposed reforms of bank capital requirements. We conduct Monte-Carlo experiments using data on defaults and severity rates on publicly-traded US corporate bonds over the 1981–1999 period. Analyzing the whole period and various sub-periods, it is clear that the most recent draft of the BIS proposed reforms seriously overestimates the relative riskiness of high-quality debt relative to low quality debt in the so-called standardized model. As a result, the most recent proposal still contains inherent risk-shifting (taking) incentives for banks.