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Secondary Trading Costs in the Municipal Bond Market

Journal of Finance 2006 61(3), 1361-1397
Using new econometric methods, we separately estimate average transaction costs for over 167,000 bonds from a 1‐year sample of all U.S. municipal bond trades. Municipal bond transaction costs decrease with trade size and do not depend significantly on trade frequency. Also, municipal bond trades are substantially more expensive than similar‐sized equity trades. We attribute these results to the lack of bond market price transparency. Additional cross‐sectional analyses show that bond trading costs increase with credit risk, instrument complexity, time to maturity, and time since issuance. Investors, and perhaps ultimately issuers, might benefit if issuers issued simpler bonds.

Competition on the Nasdaq and the growth of electronic communication networks

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(9), 2537-2559
This paper examines the growth of electronic communication networks (ECNs) and their competitive impact on the Nasdaq. We find that the development of these alternative trading platforms is associated with tighter quoted, effective, and relative bid–ask spreads, greater depths, and less concentrated markets. Further, our results show that an increase in ECN trading may have caused some traditional market makers (wholesaler and national retail dealers) to exit the market for market making. Overall, our results suggest that ECNs provide a source of competition to traditional Nasdaq dealers.

Portfolio selection using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(2), 669-678
This paper contributes to portfolio selection methodology using a Bayesian forecast of the distribution of returns by stochastic approximation. New hierarchical priors on the mean vector and covariance matrix of returns are derived and implemented. Comparison’s between this approach and other Bayesian methods are studied with simulations on 25 years of historical data on global stock indices. It is demonstrated that a fully hierarchical Bayes procedure produces promising results warranting more study. We carried out a numerical optimization procedure to maximize expected utility using the MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) samples from the posterior predictive distribution. This model resulted in an extra 1.5 percentage points per year in additional portfolio performance (on top of the Hierarchical Bayes model to estimate μ and Σ and use the Markowitz model), which is quite a significant empirical result. This approach applies to a large class of utility functions and models for market returns.

The strategic use of corporate venture financing for securing demand

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(10), 2809-2833
This paper focuses on the strategic role of corporate venture financing carried out by a corporation (a headquarter). When the headquarter finances a venture through its corporate venture-financing arm, it can increase the complementarity between products of the venture and the headquarter. The effect of having an increase in complementarity is a softening of ex post product market competition with rival products. Hence, in deciding whether to finance the venture, the headquarter faces a trade-off between, on the one hand, being more aggressive ex post in the product market, and, on the other hand, using venture financing to soften ex post competition with substitute products.

The Effect of Income on Mortality: Evidence from the Social Security Notch

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2006 88(3), 482-495
Legislation in the 1970s created a Notch in social security payments, with those born after January 1, 1917, receiving sharply lower benefits. Using restricted-use versions of the National Mortality Detail File combined with Census data, we use this quasi experiment to examine the income mortality link in an elderly population. Estimates from difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity models show the higher-income group has a statistically significantly higher mortality rate, contradicting the previous literature. We also found that younger cohorts responded to lower incomes by increasing postretirement work effort, suggesting that moderate employment has beneficial health effects for the elderly.

Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution

Econometrica 2006 74(1), 193-212 open access
This paper demonstrates how time consistency of the Ramsey policy -the optimal fiscal and monetary policy under commitment -can be achieved. Each government should leave its successor with a unique maturity structure for the nominal and indexed debt, such that the marginal benefit of a surprise inflation exactly balances the marginal cost. Unlike in earlier papers on the topic, the result holds for quite a general Ramsey policy, including timevarying polices with positive inflation and positive nominal interest rates.

Hedging volatility risk

Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 30(3), 811-821
Volatility risk plays an important role in the management of portfolios of derivative assets as well as portfolios of basic assets. This risk is currently managed by volatility “swaps” or futures. However, this risk could be managed more efficiently using options on volatility that were proposed in the past but were never introduced mainly due to the lack of a cost efficient tradable underlying asset. The objective of this paper is to introduce a new volatility instrument, an option on a straddle, which can be used to hedge volatility risk. The design and valuation of such an instrument are the basic ingredients of a successful financial product. In order to value these options, we combine the approaches of compound options and stochastic volatility. Our numerical results show that the straddle option is a powerful instrument to hedge volatility risk. An additional benefit of such an innovation is that it will provide a direct estimate of the market price for volatility risk.