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The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1983 98(2), 201
This paper shows how fluctuations of an erratic and unstable nature can emerge from the classical, deterministic economic growth process. Implications of the analysis would appear to be at least two. First, pronounced changes in the way an economy behaves need not cause us to reject our understanding of how it works. Second, we need not seek in exogenous forces an explanation as to why behavioral patterns change and why it may be so difficult to anticipate future events from the profile of past experience.

Annual Inequality and Lifetime Inequality

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1983 98(1), 139
An estimator of inequality in lifetime incomes is derived. It can be computed for a population from the distribution of incomes in one year. As a result, the estimates are as easily calculated as measurements of annual inequality, but can be used as measurements of lifetime inequality. Estimates from this measure and two others have been computed for selected years since 1947. The results are compared by their implications for the level and trend of inequality in the United States.