The current financial crisis in the commercial airline industry has engendered an active debate over appropriate governmental policies. Proponents of government support, instrumental in legislating a $5 billion cash transfer and $10 billion loan guarantee fund for U.S. carriers following September 11, 2001, point to the critical role that airlines play in the U.S. economy and the devastating effects airline failures could have on air service. Opponents argue that most airlines continue to operate through bankruptcy resolution and that even a complete shutdown of a major carrier, which rarely occurs, would stimulate expansion by other airlines to replace its abandoned flights. This debate highlights the need to understand the causal effect of airline financial distress on airline operations, distinct from correlations that may exist as a result of adverse demand or cost shocks that lead to both service declines and financial distress. We focus on airline Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, an extreme measure of financial distress. We use data from 1984 through 2001 to evaluate the impact of major bankruptcies on the level of flights and destinations served at U.S. airports. Our results suggest that bankruptcy induces modest declines in service levels, particularly at midsize airports. This raises the question of whether such declines are socially inefficient. Restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy court judge or the creditors of an airline operating under Chapter 11 may affect total industry output or capacity offered if other carriers cannot rapidly replace the production of the constrained firm (i.e., if firms are not homogeneous and entry is not costless). With heterogeneous firms, one firm may be uniquely positioned to supply a flight, and its decision not to do so may lead to a reduction in total service. This is particularly likely in network industries, such as airlines, where there are strong production complementarities across routes. It is also possible, however, that pre-bankruptcy service levels were inefficiently high. The bankrupt carrier may have overprovided service, perhaps in an attempt to build market share, or flight-frequency competition among carriers may have led to excessive flights. In these cases, the flight reduction associated with bankruptcy may cause a movement toward the socially optimal level of service. Our work takes a first step toward resolving this issue, by determining the magnitude of bankruptcy effects on aggregate air service. The results suggest the need for further research to assess its possible welfare implications.

This paper documents clustering in currency stop‐loss and take‐profit orders, and uses that clustering to provide an explanation for two familiar predictions from technical analysis: (1) trends tend to reverse course at predictable support and resistance levels, and (2) trends tend to be unusually rapid after rates cross such levels. The data are the first available on individual currency stop‐loss and take‐profit orders. Take‐profit orders cluster particularly strongly at round numbers, which could explain the first prediction. Stop‐loss orders cluster strongly just beyond round numbers, which could explain the second prediction.

A common explanation offered for the observed wage differential between men and women is that women are less attached to the labor market; they exhibit a greater degree of labor-market intermittency than do men. There are several theories that explain this link between intermittency and lower wages, including differences in human-capital attainment, atrophy of skills during absences, and preferences of employers (see e.g., Solomon W. Polachek and W. Stanley Siebert, 1993; Joyce P. Jacobsen and Laurence M. Levin, 1995; James W. Albrecht et al., 2000). The goal of this paper is to explore in greater depth the role past labormarket intermittency plays in the determination of a woman’s current wage and at what level of intermittent activity women can expect to have that activity affect her wage. Previous methods employed to measure the penalty associated with intermittent activity have either classified workers as intermittent if they have at least one spell of absence from the labor market (Jacobsen and Levin, 1995) or have relied on the percentage of time out of the labor force to classify intermittent workers (Elaine J. Sorenson, 1993). However, if employers perceive intermittent behavior as a signal, then both the frequency of intermittent spells and the duration of the spells should be taken into account. We contribute to this literature by creating an intermittency index that captures both of these factors. We also statistically determine at what level of intermittency a woman will incur a penalty for absence from the labor force. This index is used to determine the magnitude of the penalty associated with intermittent participation in the labor force. The analysis is limited to women as intermittent behavior is more prevalent for women and to avoid potential confounding factors associated with gender discrimination.

The Political Economy of Antiracism Initiatives in the Post-Durban Round by Samuel L. Myers Jr., Lajune Thomas Lange and Bruce Corrie. Published in volume 93, issue 2, pages 330-333 of American Economic Review, May 2003

Regional Workshops to Improve the Teaching Skills of Economics Faculty by Rae Jean B. Goodman, Mark Maier and Robert L. Moore. Published in volume 93, issue 2, pages 460-462 of American Economic Review, May 2003

We explore the importance of modeling strategies when estimating the emissions-income relationship. Using U.S. state-level panel data on nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, we estimate several environmental Kuznets curves using the standard parametric framework as well as a more flexible semiparametric alternative. Formal statistical comparisons of the results overwhelmingly reject the parametric approach. Moreover, the differences, particularly for sulfur dioxide, are economically significant.

Nonmarket goods such as unpaid household labor, leisure, health and longevity, and the environment are important components of the standard of living. They represent a large fraction of all activities. Prime-aged men and women spend 17 percent of their day in leisure activities, and 5 and 13 percent of their time, respectively, in unpaid housework compared to 23 and 13 percent of their time, respectively, in paid work. The quantity of nonmarket goods is rising over time. In the United States, life expectancy at birth is now 77 years, having risen by 29 years since 1900. In Los Angeles County between 1980 and 1998, average annual daily exceedences of the national smog standard declined by 60 days from 71 to 11. Falling big-city murder rates merit national news headlines. Studies of living standards have focused on the tremendous change in the quantity of nonmarket goods but have assumed that the value of nonmarket goods, except for unpaid labor, has remained constant. This assumption underlies most health studies (e.g., David Cutler and Elizabeth Richardson, 1997; Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel, 2003; William T. Nordhaus, 2003). Nordhaus (2003) valued declines in mortality since 1900 using a constant value of life. Even the Boskin CPI Commission (Michael J. Boskin et al., 1998) discussed trends in the quantity of nonmarket goods (i.e., pollution and crime progress) without mentioning incorporating such goods’ implicit prices into a broader CPI measure. There is no reason to think that implicit prices or the willingness to pay for nonmarket goods has remained constant. Rising real and shadow wages have made both leisure and unpaid household labor more expensive. Rising incomes have also made such normal goods as safety, health, a temperate climate, and the environment more valuable. We document the price dynamics of nonmarket goods by estimating repeat cross-sectional hedonic regressions. We focus on two important and measurable nonmarket goods: job fatality risk and climate. In both cases we find that both price and quantity have been rising. This evidence is consistent with rising valuation. We use our estimates of job-risk compensating differentials to construct new evidence on long-run trends in value of life. Accounting for price changes affects how we view the retrospective and prospective benefits of medical innovations. A rising value of life implies that marginal improvements in safety and in longevity are becoming more valuable. We report evidence that the price of living in a temperate winter and summer climate has significantly increased over time.