We exploit the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new measure of funding liquidity risk that varies within funds. We find that hedge funds with lower funding risk generate higher returns, and this effect is driven by their increased exposure to equity-mispricing anomalies. Our results are robust to a variety of sampling criteria, variable definitions, and control variables. Further, we address endogeneity concerns in various ways, including a placebo approach and regression discontinuity design. Collectively, our results support a causal link between funding risk and the ability of managers to engage in risky arbitrage.

Since the global financial crisis, interest rate swap rates, which represent future uncollateralized interbank borrowing, have fallen below maturity-matched Treasury rates. This is surprising, because US Treasuries, which are deemed expensive because of superior liquidity and safety, should produce yields that are lower than those of swap rates. We show, by no-arbitrage, that sovereign default risk explains negative swap spreads even without frictions such as balance sheet constraints, convenience yield, and hedging demand. We support this explanation with an equilibrium model that jointly accounts for macroeconomic fundamentals and the term structures of interest and US credit default swap rates.

We examine listing applications by firms to the London Stock Exchange between 1891 and 1911. The exchange rejected 82 (13.1%) of the 628 applicants to its main board. Accepted applicants were twice as likely to pay dividends (and to pay twice as much) and had longer firm lives than rejected applicants. Rejected applicants were more likely to file for liquidation than successful applicants. These results remain even after we control for the primary benefits of the listing itself: liquidity and future capital inflows. In this era, the London Stock Exchange could screen applicants for listing.

This paper demonstrates the acute sensitivity of education program effectiveness to the choices of inputs and outcome measures, using a randomized evaluation of a mother-tongue literacy program. The program raises reading scores by 0.64 SD and writing scores by 0.45 SD. A reduced-cost version instead yields statistically insignificant reading gains and some large negative effects (−0.33 SDs) on advanced writing. We combine a conceptual model of education production with detailed classroom observations to examine the mechanisms driving the results; we show they could be driven by the program initially lowering productivity before raising it, and potentially by missing complementary inputs in the reduced-cost version.

How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents’ perceptions of local security. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition, and employs a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact. We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history, and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions.

Shared appreciation mortgages (SAMs) feature mortgage payments that adjust with house prices. They are designed to stave off borrower default by providing payment relief when house prices fall. Some argue that SAMs may help prevent the next foreclosure crisis. However, home owners' gains from payment relief are mortgage lenders' losses. A general equilibrium model in which financial intermediaries channel savings from saver to borrower households shows that indexation of mortgage payments to aggregate house prices increases financial fragility, reduces risk‐sharing, and leads to expensive financial sector bailouts. In contrast, indexation to local house prices reduces financial fragility and improves risk‐sharing.

A general measure of asset market interdependence based on higher order comoments is developed and applied to studying weekly U.S. and eurozone equity returns from 1990 to 2017. A new test of independence is also developed. The empirical results show that interdependence peaks during the global financial crisis with the covariance and covolatility comoments being the dominant factors. Conditioning the interdependence measure on volatility does not change the overall qualitative results. Implications of the results for constructing diversified portfolios reveal economic benefits from portfolios based on higher order comoments than the usual assumption of bivariate normality, especially during the GFC. The empirical results also provide evidence that European Union membership led to higher interdependence than did the adoption of the common currency.

We investigate the joint effects of auditors' reporting choice and audit committee effectiveness on management disclosures about complex estimates. A new PCAOB standard requires auditors to report on Critical Audit Matters (CAMs): issues “communicated or required to be communicated to the audit committee” about accounts or disclosures that (1) “are material to the financial statements,” and (2) “involved especially challenging, subjective, or complex auditor judgment” (PCAOB 2017a, 11). Consistent with investor arguments, we find that audit committee effectiveness and more detailed CAM reporting encourage managers' disclosures of the risk underlying complex estimates. When the auditor's report is more informative about a complex estimate and the audit committee is more effective, management's related financial disclosures are more forthcoming. However, less informative auditor disclosures or more effective audit committees alone do not prompt greater management disclosure. Thus, expanded auditor reporting and more effective audit committees, together, can enhance the disclosures investors value.

We study how home-market reporting requirements and listing choices associate with ongoing SEC disclosures by foreign firms and the investor response. The SEC defers material event and interim financial disclosure obligations to foreign firms' home-market regulator or exchange. We find that a growing number of foreign firms incorporate in disclosure havens and have few or no event-driven disclosure obligations. These firms furnish fewer 6-K disclosures, but experience greater investor interest and market response to each filing. There is little evidence that the SEC substitutes for lower information flow with additional monitoring. Our results indicate that the SEC's one-size-fits-all approach to foreign firm disclosure has led to increasing disparity in information flow, despite the strong demand for and reaction to disclosures by firms from weaker regimes.

Periodic demand forecasts are the primary planning and coordination mechanism within organizations. Because most demand forecasts incorporate human judgment, they are subject to both unintentional error and intentional opportunistic bias. We examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into various sources of demand reduces forecast error and bias. Using proprietary data from a manufacturing organization, we find that absolute demand forecast error declines following the implementation of a disaggregated forecast system. We also find a favorable effect of forecast disaggregation on finished goods inventory without a corresponding increase in costly production plan changes. We further document a decline in positive forecast bias, except for products whose production is limited owing to scarce production resources. This implies that disaggregation alone is not sufficient to overcome heightened incentives of self-interested sales managers to positively bias the forecast for the very products that an organization would like to avoid tying up in inventory. Data Availability: Data are the property of the research partner and may not be redistributed by the authors.