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Corporate governance and cash holdings: Evidence from worldwide board reforms

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 65, 101771
Using staggered board reforms as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences approach, this study examines the impact of corporate governance on cash holdings in 41 countries. We find that board reforms are followed by significant reductions in cash holdings. This effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker pre-reform corporate governance and for firms from countries with weaker institutional environments. Analysis of cash spending suggests that, following board reforms, firms are more likely to use cash to increase R&D expenditures, dividend payouts, and share repurchases, but not to increase capital or acquisition expenditures. Finally, the results indicate that enhanced corporate governance following board reforms leads to higher (lower) cash (dividend payouts) values, consistent with the view that board reforms strengthen corporate governance.

Till mortgage do us part: Mortgage switching costs and household's bank switching

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 119, 105904
We investigate the role of mortgage switching costs in shaping the households’ decision to change their main bank. To this end, we use a unique panel dataset that enables us to infer household's bank switching, in conjunction with a legal reform that exogenously slashed down the mortgage switching costs. The empirical evidence, which survives to a variety of robustness checks, supports the hypothesis that the explicit switching costs in the retail banking market are a weighty factor in shaping households’ bank switching, despite any potential “informational lock-in”. Dissecting the results, we show that the effects of the reform were not uniform across households. The more educated households, those with a longer or broader relationship with their previous bank and those residing in ex-ante less competitive banking markets were at the forefront of the wave of bank switching.

Leverage, bank employee compensation and institutions

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 111, 105701 open access
This paper investigates the empirical relationship between financial structure and employee compensation in the banking industry. Using an international panel of banks, we show that well-capitalized banks pay higher wages to their employees. Our results are robust to changes in measurement, model specification and estimation methods. In order to account for the positive association between bank capital and employee compensation, we illustrate a stylized 3-period model and show that well-capitalized banks have incentives to pay higher wages to induce monitoring. Such monitoring rents of employees at capitalized banks are expected to be higher in societies with weak institutions. Further empirical analysis shows that the weaker is institutional quality of a country the stronger is the positive relationship between bank capital and wages - supporting our theoretical conjectures.

Finance journal rankings: Active scholar assessment revisited

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 111, 105717
This study constructs finance journal rankings and classifications using the active scholar assessment (ASA) methodology with nested effects regression estimation. We observe some interesting changes over the past nine years and also compare the new ASA journal rankings with Scimago's SJR rankings, Thomson Reuters’ JCR rankings and ABS classifications. Responses from active finance scholars in a web survey are used to endogenously rank and classify a broad set of 102 finance journals by quality and importance. Regression estimation with nested random journal-within-tier effects enables journals in the four tier groups (A-D) to be separated into “upper”, “middle” and “lower” categories (e.g. A+, A and A-). In addition to citation-based ranking, ASA study results can provide useful information and guidance to authors and editors on active scholar perceptions of journal quality and importance, tenure & promotion committees in assessing research, and university libraries in managing their resources.

Do dividends convey information about future earnings?

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 136(2), 547-570
Yes. We show that dividend changes contain information about highly persistent changes in future economic income. Three methodological differences lead us to different conclusions from the extant literature: (i) we use an “event window approach” to cleanly delineate earnings after dividend changes from those before, (ii) we use alternative earnings measures to control for endogenous investment and asset write-downs surrounding dividend changes, and (iii) we control for the nonlinear relation between dividend changes and market reactions. Our results suggest dividend announcement returns reflect information about the level of permanent earnings, though the timing of the information content is difficult to reconcile with traditional signaling models.

Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(11), 5173-5211
Two main creditors exist in commercial real estate: arm’s-length investors and banks. We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit. In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress, and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation. As a natural experiment, we test the model using the collapse of the CMBS market during 2007–2009, when banks funded both collateral types. Our results show that properties likely to have been securitized were less likely to default or be renegotiated. This suggests that securitization in this market funds safe collateral.

Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle

American Economic Review 2020 110(11), 3549-3601
This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unrelated to proxies for financial strength. We instead provide evidence for an alternative mechanism based on the industry scope of the very largest firms.

Stress tests and small business lending

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 136(1), 260-279
Post-crisis stress tests have altered banks’ credit supply to small business. Banks most affected by stress tests reallocate credit away from riskier markets and toward safer ones. They also raise interest rates on small loans. Quantities fall most in high-risk markets where stress-tested banks own no branches, and prices rise mainly where they do. The results suggest that banks price the stress-test induced increase in capital requirements where they have local knowledge, and exit where they do not. Stress tests do not, however, reduce aggregate credit. Small banks seem to increase their share in geographies formerly reliant on stress-tested lenders.

Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020 102(2), 287-303
By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect—the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents—and uncertainty effect—attentive agents might increase their acquisition of private information to compensate for the higher uncertainty after shocks.

The life of U’s: Order revisions on NASDAQ

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 111, 105724
By recovering data on individual revision “U”-messages on NASDAQ, this paper is the first to reconstruct and then examine chains of order revisions. In recent years, revisions have grown in popularity and now are thrice as common as executions. The research on revisions, however, is still developing. We find significant differences between the determinants of revisions and cancellations/placements as order updating techniques. Our results also indicate that traders appear to respond rationally to new information by updating their orders based on order flow. We also show that revision runs follow stable, predictable patterns. Additionally, we find evidence suggesting increased revision activity has deleterious effects on market quality.