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Perceptions and Price: Evidence from CEO Presentations at IPO Roadshows

Journal of Accounting Research 2017 55(2), 275-327 open access
This paper examines the relation between cognitive perceptions of management and firm valuation. We develop a composite measure of investor perception using 30-second content-filtered video clips of initial public offering (IPO) roadshow presentations. We show that this measure, designed to capture viewers’ overall perceptions of a CEO, is positively associated with pricing at all stages of the IPO (proposed price, offer price, and end of first day of trading). The result is robust to controls for traditional determinants of firm value. We also show that firms with highly perceived management are more likely to be matched to high-quality underwriters. In further exploratory analyses, we find the impact is greater for firms with more uncertain language in their written S-1. Taken together, our results provide evidence that investors’ instinctive perceptions of management are incorporated into their assessments of firm value.

Offshore activities and financial vs operational hedging

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 125(2), 217-244
A key question is why many multinational firms forgo foreign exchange derivative (FX) hedging and instead use operational hedging. We propose an explanation based on illiquidity and the unique advantages of operational hedges. We use 10-K filings to construct dynamically updated text-based measures of the offshore sale of output, purchase of input, and ownership of assets. We find that firms use FX derivatives when they are liquid and generally available. Otherwise, they often favor purchasing input from the same nations they sell output to, an operational hedge. Quasi-natural experiments based on new derivative product launches suggest a likely causal relation.

Board Gender Diversity, Auditor Fees, and Auditor Choice

Contemporary Accounting Research 2017 34(3), 1681-1714 open access
We examine whether the presence of female directors and female audit committee members affect audit quality in terms of audit effort and auditor choice by using observations from a sample of U.S. firms, spanning the years 2001–2011. We find, after controlling for endogeneity and other board, firm, and industry characteristics, that firms with gender‐diverse boards (audit committees) pay 6 percent (8 percent) higher audit fees and are 6 percent (7 percent) more likely to choose specialist auditors compared to all‐male boards (audit committees). Our findings suggest that boards (audit committees) with female directors (members) are likely to demand higher audit quality, ceteris paribus.

Trade-based manipulation: Beyond the prosecuted cases

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 42, 115-130 open access
Using insights from prosecuted cases, we present compelling evidence of large-trade based manipulation in a sizeable number of Indian IPOs that, in all likelihood escaped enforcement actions. Consistent with the pump-and-dump scheme these IPOs exhibit abnormally high volume of large trades, a significant fraction of which originates from a syndicate of traders present in the prosecuted IPOs. More importantly, stock price in the manipulated IPOs rises initially on account of artificial trades, but then declines significantly as the manipulators exit the market. Interestingly, not all attempts at manipulation are entirely successful as stock price in some of the manipulated IPOs crash on the first day of listing.

Tax uncertainty and retirement savings diversification

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(3), 689-712
We investigate the optimal savings decisions for investors with access to pre-tax (traditional) and post-tax (Roth) versions of tax-advantaged retirement accounts. The model features a progressive tax schedule and uncertainty over future tax rates. Traditional accounts are valuable for hedging retirement account performance and managing current income near tax-bracket cutoffs, whereas Roth accounts allow investors to mitigate uncertainty over future tax schedules. The optimal asset location policy for most households involves diversifying between traditional and Roth vehicles. Contrary to conventional advice, the substantial economic benefits from Roth investments are not limited to investors with low current income.

Consumer Bankruptcy and Financial Health

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2017 99(5), 853-869 open access
This paper estimates the effect of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on financial health using a new data set linking bankruptcy filings to credit bureau records. Our empirical strategy uses the leniency of randomly assigned judges as an instrument for Chapter 13 protection. We find that Chapter 13 protection decreases an index measuring adverse financial events such as civil judgments and repossessions by 0.323 standard deviations and increases the probability of being a homeowner by 13.2 percentage points. Chapter 13 protection has little impact on open unsecured debt but decreases the amount of debt in collections by $1,333.

Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2017 99(3), 486-498 open access
We consider the dynamic factor model where the loading matrix, the dynamic factors, and the disturbances are treated as latent stochastic processes. We present empirical Bayes methods that enable the shrinkagebased estimation of the loadings and factors. We investigate the methods in a large Monte Carlo study where we evaluate the finite sample properties of the empirical Bayes methods for quadratic loss functions. Finally, we present and discuss the results of an empirical study concerning the forecasting of U.S. macroeconomic time series using our empirical Bayes methods.

Local Bias in Google Search and the Market Response around Earnings Announcements

The Accounting Review 2017 92(4), 115-143
We examine the impact of distance on internet search, and the effect of the “local bias” in search on the stock market response around earnings announcements. We find significant local bias in search behavior. Motivated by theories explaining local bias, local information advantage, and familiarity bias, we predict and find that firms with higher local bias in search experience higher bid-ask spreads, lower trading volumes, and lower earnings response coefficients at the time of earnings announcements, consistent with non-local investors relying more than locals on public information announcements. Consistent with local information advantage, we find that in the week prior to the announcement, firms with higher local bias have higher bid-ask spreads, higher trading volumes, and returns that are more predictive of the coming earnings surprise. Consistent with familiarity bias, firms with higher local bias in search experience stronger post-earnings announcement drift. We use unique predictions, propensity score matching, and two-stage least squares to identify the effects of local bias separately from the effects of overall visibility. Overall, we show there is significant local bias in search, and that this local bias has a significant impact on the market response around earnings announcements.

The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 79, 74-94
We analyse the dynamics of the pass-through of banks’ marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We measure banks’ marginal cost by their rate on new deposits, contrary to the literature that focuses on money market rates. This allows us to account for banks’ risks. We focus on the interest rate on new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in these countries. Our analysis is based on an error-correction approach that we extend to handle the time-varying long-run relationship between banks’ lending rates and banks’ marginal cost, as well as stochastic volatility. Our application is based on a harmonised monthly database from January 2003 to October 2014. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC).We reject the view that the transmission mechanism is permanent over time. The long-run relationship moved with the sovereign debt crises to a new one, with a slower pass-through and higher bank lending rates. Its developments are heterogeneous from one country to the other. Impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore, its risks. We also find that rates to small firms increase compared to large firms in a few countries. Using a VAR model, we show that overall, the effect of a shock on the rate of new deposits on the unexpected variances of new loans has been less important since 2010. These results confirm the slowdown in the transmission mechanism.