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History's Role in Coordinating Decentralized Allocation Decisions

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(2), 292-316
What causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price? A satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems: Equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location, and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity. This paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems, reviews some solutions found in the literature, and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them. In addressing these issues, we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions.

Exploration and Scarcity

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(6), 1279-1290
Noting that a suggested measure of natural resource scarcity, resource rent, is unobservable, we show that rent is linked to (observable) marginal exploration cost. A two-period model of extraction and exploration reveals that rent is equal to this cost when discovery is certain. Under risky exploration, cost data can be used to bound rent. The model also indicates how exploration uncertainty affects the competitive firm's extraction and exploration decisions. Finally, the behavior of U.S. oil and gas exploration costs suggests that these costs were rising in the postwar era, which has different implications for scarcity than indicated by other measures of scarcity.

Income Distributions in Two Experimental Economies

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(6), 1259-1271
Data on individual labor earnings are reported from two experimental economies where the primary factors responsible for income differences were differences in tastes for market income versus leisure and differences in abilities working manual job tasks. Measured income dispersion under these conditions was strikingly similar to that in the United states and other market economies, indicating that these two factors alone are sufficient to generate such income differences. Further, in tests of the functional form of the distributions of income, the hypothesis of lognormality fit better than the hypothesis of normality, just as it does in national data.

Is There a VA Advantage? Evidence from Dually Eligible Veterans

American Economic Review 2023 113(11), 3003-3043 open access
We study public versus private provision of health care for veterans aged 65 and older who may receive care provided by the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and in private hospitals financed by Medicare. Utilizing the ambulance design of Doyle et al. (2015), we find that the VA reduces 28-day mortality by 46 percent (4.5 percentage points) and that these survival gains are persistent. The VA also reduces 28-day spending by 21 percent and delivers strikingly different reported services relative to private hospitals. We find suggestive evidence of complementarities between continuity of care, health IT, and integrated care.

Measuring Uncertainty

American Economic Review 2015 105(3), 1177-1216
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are larger, more persistent, and are more correlated with real activity. Our estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate theories for which uncertainty shocks play a role in business cycles.

Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Charity: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2006 121(2), 747-782
"This study develops theory and uses a door-to-door fundraising field experiment to explore the economics of charity. We approached nearly 5000 households, randomly divided into four experimental treatments, to shed light on key issues on the demand side of charitable fundraising. Empirical results are in line with our theory: in gross terms, our lottery treatments raised considerably more money than our voluntary contributions treatments. Interestingly, we find that a one standard deviation increase in female solicitor physical attractiveness is similar to that of the lottery incentive, the magnitude of the estimated difference in gifts is roughly equivalent to the treatment effect of moving from our theoretically most attractive approach (lotteries) to our least attractive approach (voluntary contributions)"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.