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Declining Discount Rates

American Economic Review 2014 104(5), 538-543 open access
We ask whether the US government should replace its current discounting practices with a declining discount rate schedule, as the United Kingdom and France have done, or continue to discount the future at a constant exponential rate. We present the theoretical basis for a declining discount rate (DDR) schedule, but focus on how, in practice, a DDR could be estimated for use by policy analysts. We discuss the empirical approaches in the literature and review how the United Kingdom and France estimated their DDR schedules. We conclude with advice on how the United States might proceed to consider modifying its current discounting practices.

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment

American Economic Review 2012 102(7), 3749-3760 open access
In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.

Corporate Tax Benefits from Hometown-Connected Politicians

The Accounting Review 2024 99(3), 59-86
ABSTRACT This study examines whether politicians exhibit hometown favoritism in assigning preferential corporate income tax rates. We find that firms with hometown connections to incumbent provincial leaders experience favorable tax treatment. This effect is more pronounced when those leaders have strong hometown preferences and weaker when they have a strong incentive to seek promotion, suggesting that social incentives are the primary drivers of the effects on corporate tax benefits of hometown favoritism by politicians. Moreover, this effect is intensified when members of senior management have personal connections with the provincial leader. The mechanism test reveals that the provincial governments tend to qualify connected firms for preferential tax policies under their jurisdictions. Overall, our results suggest that hometown favoritism by politicians promotes tax benefits for business entities. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classification: H26; H71; M48.

Insider Sales under the Threat of Short Sellers: New Hypothesis and New Tests

The Accounting Review 2022 97(2), 427-451
ABSTRACT Using the Regulation SHO program as a quasi-experiment, we document that the threat of short selling has a negative effect on the volume of opportunistic insider selling and a positive effect on its profitability for each transaction. These effects are stronger among firms with higher litigation risk, greater media coverage, and executives who have more of their firms' stock-related holdings. We further find robust evidence when we extend the analyses to short selling deregulations in the Chinese and Hong Kong stock exchanges. Overall, our findings suggest that short sellers play a disciplinary role in opportunistic insider selling. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: D8; D53; G14; G18.

RESERVES AND RETAINED INCOME.

The Accounting Review 1951 26(2), 153-156
Abstract The article focuses on recommendations presented by the American Accounting Association's Committee on Concepts and Standards, regarding the use of term "reserve" in accounting. The committee recommended that the term reserve should not be employed in published financial statements of business corporations, appropriations of retained income should not be made or displayed in such a manner as to create misleading inferences, and the reserve section in corporate balance sheets should be eliminated and its elements exhibited as deduction-from-asset, or liability, or retained income amounts. In general usage, outside of accounting, a reserve is a fund of cash or other assets. In accounting the term has been used to caption a variety of balance sheet items including segregated retained income, segregated asset, asset valuation and asset amortization amounts, and liabilities. It has been recommended that the word reserve be restricted to captions describing appropriated retained income. The committee believes that the popular understanding of financial statements, and the thinking of the profession, would be promoted by abandoning the term.

Subprime Mortgage Defaults and Credit Default Swaps

Journal of Finance 2015 70(2), 689-731
ABSTRACT We offer the first empirical evidence on the adverse effect of credit default swap (CDS) coverage on subprime mortgage defaults. Using a large database of privately securitized mortgages, we find that higher defaults concentrate in mortgage pools with concurrent CDS coverage, and within these pools the loans originated after or shortly before the start of CDS coverage have an even higher delinquency rate. The results are robust across zip code and origination quarter cohorts. Overall, we show that CDS coverage helped drive higher mortgage defaults during the financial crisis.

New Books: An Annotated Listing.

The Accounting Review 1989 64(3), 575-579
Abstract This article presents information on various books related to accountancy. The book "An Accountant's Guide to Databases," by K.N. Bhasker, examines the basic concepts and terminology of database management and its implications for the field of accounting. The book begins with a brief introduction to current micro-technology and the organization of computer files and defines three distinctive meanings of the term database relevant to its use in accounting. The purpose of the book "Comprehensive Auditing in Canada: Theory and Practice," by James Cutt, is the development of a theory and methodology for a comprehensive auditing model by examination of current theory and practice in the areas of auditing and policy analysis or program evaluation. The theory and methodology developed is designed primarily for the nonprofit component of the public sector but is extended to the profit component of the public and private sectors. In the book "The British Accounting Review Research Register 1988," edited by K.P. Gee and R.H. Gray, the data presented has been gathered from across 90 universities, polytechnics and colleges, and provides information on 1,072 accounting and finance academic staff members throughout the British Isles.

Liquidity in Retirement Savings Systems: An International Comparison

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 420-425 open access
We compare the liquidity that six developed countries have built into their employer-based defined contribution (DC) retirement schemes. In Germany, Singapore, and the UK, withdrawals are essentially banned no matter what kind of transitory income shock the household realizes. By contrast, in Canada and Australia, liquidity is state-contingent. For a middle-income household, DC accounts are completely illiquid unless annual income falls substantially, in which case DC assets become highly liquid. The US stands alone in the universally high liquidity of its DC system: whether or not income falls, the penalties for early withdrawal are low or non-existent.

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

American Economic Review 2013 103(3), 570-574 open access
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over 10 periods ('fast'), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods ('slow'). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.