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Local Business Cycles and Local Liquidity

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2015 50(5), 987-1010
This study examines whether state-level economic conditions affect the liquidity of local firms. We find that liquidity levels of local stocks are higher (lower) when the local economy has performed well (poorly). This relation is stronger when local financing constraints are more binding, the local information environment is more opaque, and local institutional ownership levels and trading intensity are higher. Overall the evidence supports the notion that the geographical segmentation of U.S. capital markets generates predictable patterns in local liquidity.

Heterogeneous beliefs and return volatility around seasoned equity offerings

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(2), 571-589 open access
We investigate the dynamics of heterogeneous beliefs and link them to the volatility pattern throughout the seasoned equity offering (SEO) event window. In sync with a reduction in information asymmetry related to management information releases around the SEO event, belief heterogeneity declines. Moreover, heterogeneity in beliefs, proxied by either analyst- or institutional-trade-based measures, is a robust and salient determinant of SEO firm volatility, which provides an explanation for the volatility timing “puzzle” identified in the SEO market. Furthermore, the relation between heterogeneous beliefs and return volatility weakens as short sale constraints tighten, suggesting a potential causal link.

Seeing is believing: Tourism and foreign equity investments

Journal of Banking & Finance 2025 178, 107498
This study examines whether international tourism affects financial market investments. Using over two decades of data for more than 30 countries, we find that recreational travel between countries is associated with higher levels of foreign equity investments and reduced home bias. This evidence of tourism-induced foreign investment is consistent with the familiarity hypothesis and is unlikely to reflect superior information. We alleviate potential endogeneity concerns using several econometric techniques, including instrumental variables, quasi-natural experiments, and multiple placebo tests. Collectively, these results suggest that tourism has positive externalities in financial markets.

Do Hedge Fund Managers Understand Politics? Political Sensitivity and Investment Skill

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 135, 106371 open access
We show that hedge fund managers who more actively and astutely adjust the political sensitivity of their portfolios, in line with the dynamic U.S. political landscape, improve their investment performance. Funds that tilt their portfolios toward market segments expected to perform better during the new political regime, specifically around U.S. Presidential elections, generate significantly higher alphas. Further, hedge fund families with greater responsiveness to political changes exhibit persistently superior performance and are more likely to survive. Hedge fund investors reward more responsive fund managers with greater inflows.

Income Hedging, Dynamic Style Preferences, and Return Predictability

Journal of Finance 2019 74(4), 2055-2106 open access
We propose a theoretical measure of income hedging demand and show that it affects asset prices. We focus on the value factor and first demonstrate that our demand estimates are correlated with the actual demands of retail and mutual fund investors. We then show that the aggregate high‐minus‐low (HML) demand predicts HML returns. Exploiting the state‐level variation in income risk, we demonstrate that state‐level hedging demands predict state‐level HML returns. A long‐short portfolio that exploits this hedging‐induced predictability earns an annualized risk‐adjusted return of 6%.